Pitching mechanics explained

This is how I know that even though I understand pitching mechanics extremely well, I still need a greater understanding of how to explain it. I was planning and beginning to put together a very detailed post about pitching mechanics and what are good and how to correct the bad.

Paul Nyman of The Hardball Times (THT) however has one of the (if not the) best articles ever on pitching mechanics. If anyone wants to understand this complex motion and how minute differences alter the results greatly, please read it here.

I want to highlight one particular note:

I am holding the arm flexed for .02 seconds into the simulation. In Figure 3, I am holding the arm flexed for .01 seconds into the simulation. A difference of only .01 seconds. Yet this change has dramatic results on the final throwing of the ball, achieving a maximum speed of only 78 mph—an 8 mph difference from the previous simulation.

A difference of only 1/100th of a second resulted in a loss of 8mph on his velocity. Amazing.

If you are at all interested as to why some players get hurt or lose their velocity without any injury, please read this. It is truly an amazing post.

Is Sabathia on the up and up

Watching baseball tonight reminded me of C.C. Sabathia and how good he was last year and how horrible he was this year until the last few games.

My belief is that release point is usually critical to a pitcher's success or failure. Major league hitters are freaks of nature in terms of eyesight, recognition, and reaction to pitches thrown at you close to 100MPH at times. Pitch F/X data thankfully has begun to fill the void that was missing from staticians, scouts, managers, pitching coaches, GMs, and even the players themselves.

I decided to take a look at Sabathia and his release points so far this year. Below are closeups of his 6 starts:


Based on the real life results, one would expect that there would be a large difference in the release point from the first four starts where he was absolutely horrendous and the last two where he was lights out. But that's not what I find. His release points were essentially identical throughout all of the starts.

Where does that lead us? Why was he so ineffective in his first four starts and so amazing in his last four starts. Let's look at BABIP in each of his starts to see if it can provide an answer.

	H	HR	AB	K	SF	BB	BABIP
1st start	6	2	22	7	0	3	0.308
2nd start	6	1	22	2	0	4	0.263
3rd	12	0	21	4	2	2	0.800
4th	8	2	20	1	0	5	0.353
5th	4	0	21	11	0	2	0.400
6th	4	1	28	8	0	1	0.158
SUM	40	6	134	33	2	17
					Total		0.351

The average BABIP is approximately .290 according to many people including those at Baseball Prospectus and Voros McCracken. Sabathia's overall BABIP is above it at roughly .350. What is of real note to me is how much that one horrible start factored into his BABIP. Remove that one start and you come back with the following:

	H	HR	AB	K	SF	BB	BABIP
1st start	6	2	22	7	0	3	0.308
2nd start	6	1	22	2	0	4	0.263
4th	8	2	20	1	0	5	0.353
5th	4	0	21	11	0	2	0.400
6th	4	1	28	8	0	1	0.158
SUM	28	6	113	29	0	15
					Total		0.282

Overall numbers that are perfectly within normal parameters. So with the BABIP at normal levels, his struggles in the first several games cannot be attributed to bad luck. in this department.

So ruling out release point and BABIP, only leaves us with more questions than when I started. One final thing that I decided to look at was a statistic of Baseball Prospectus called stuff. It is defined according to their website as:

"A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0}"

His Stuff rating was 15, while in the previous 2 years it was 28 and 29 respectively. This is the first thing that I saw that lead me to believe that his control, his location of pitches were what was really causing him problems.

Looking at the location of pitches with the pitch FX data, (courtesy of Dan Brooks and his online web based tool for evaluating pitch fx data). Please click on the charts for a zoom view.

Game 1 - Horrible control of fastball and slider











Game 2 - Horrible control of fastball in the zone and out of the zone.










Game 3 - His horrible start. He hung any a sliders and changes to the hitters.





Game 4 - Another horrible outing. Once again he hung many sliders, left too any fastballs in the zone that were hittable, and hung any changeups in the zone as well.







Game 5 - His first very good game. His slider was down in the zone
or out of the zone as was his changeup. While his fastball was still
somewhat erractic, it was not nearly as bad, and it was also not in the zones where right handers could get their arms extended to drive the ball.





Game 6 - His last game. He had amazing break on his pitches and
was once again able to locate his pitches well. He mixed his speeds
well and he had a lot of success.








From looking at everything above, I'd say the culprit was just missing his locations. Once he was able to regain that touch and control he was once again dominating.

I would recommend him in all formats except I still have this nagging worry about his workload last year. Yes, he is a big boy and might be able to handle the stresses more. If his release point is similar throughout the entire previous year, then it's likely this is the case. I would monitor him for at least 1-2 more starts prior to trading for him but I think that he has clearly recovered from his early season woes.

Clay Buchholz release point data from last 3 games

Clay seems to have finally begun to settle into his own. In previous posts, I mentioned how dominating he was in his last start. I had to learn more about the reasoning behind this other than the usual claims of "he was on top of his game, he had electric stuff, etc". I decided to use his Pitch F/X data on his release point as a starting point to this.


Below are the release point charts of his last 3 starts. In order they are 4/16 vs NY, 4/21 vs Tex, and 4/26 vs TB.


By looking quickly at this, it appears that vs NY, he was releasing the ball further away from his body which would give the hitters a better look as it leaves his hand. Professional baseball players find this difference of 2-3 inches astronomical as well as having a harder time controlling his pitches. His next start was closer to his body, close to a full foot, but his release point was erratic. This may be one of those times that he was lucky to get away with it. Finally vs TB his release point seemed to centralize to one area which was closer to the body than vs NY.

Now let's look at closeup views of these.




A closer look at these, which are on the same scale, shows just how greatly one's release point can vary from start to start and even within the game. The game versus NY clearly shows his release point 2 feet away from the 0, while the other two games both averaging roughly 1.25 feet away from the zero point. Also notice how in the last start versus TB, each pitch was centered around a certain release point for that pitch. He didn't deviate much from that and even when he did deviate from it, the difference was roughly the equivalent of a baseball.

If you feel that Buchholz is finally starting to turn it around, this release point data seems to be a good starting point. In the future, I will be dwelling further into this.

Lots of news

There's been a lot of news for your fantasy team so with that we'll get right to it.

1. Clay Buchholz was masterful for the whole game against the TB Rays except for one pitch, which of course caused him to get the loss. He finished with 8IP, 3H, 2ER, 9K and 2BB. This follows his last start with 6IP, 5H, 0ER, 6K, and 2BB. He's sports a 8.47 K/9 and really has only had the 1 horrible start versus the Yankees giving up 7ER on 9 baserunners. In his other 4 starts, he has gone 25 IP, 18H, 6ER, 9BB, and 25K. He seems to be settling into his own and he is now owned in 84% of CBS leagues. If you are in the other 16%, grab him quickly before someone else does.
2. Carlos Delgado is struggling mightily, despite hitting a HR recently. He's hitting under the Mendoza Line while only hitting 1 HR on the entire year. Buster Olney from ESPN ponders whether he will be designated for assignment. At the very least he is losing a lot of playing time due to his struggles. He is going to be 36 years old has always had old player skills and is at the age where whatever skills you do have begin to deteriorate rapidly. Expect a slight recovery in his numbers, but those days of an automatic 30HR and 100RBI are long gone.
   
3. Jorge Posada is likely going to end up on the DL because of his shoulder after re-injuring it in the game on Saturday against the Indians. It's reported he has a subscapularis tear which is not a good thing for any player, let alone an aging catcher. The subscapularis is part of the rotator cuff, which if surgery is required would necessitate a long rehab, probably close to the entire year. Unfortunately I have him in my main league, but thankfully I was able to get Pierzynski off the waiver wire to back him up. Bench Posada and hide him if you can until a surgical decision is made. If surgery occurs, dump him. If not, then hold onto him only if you have many bench spots.
4. Max Scherzer has been called up with Petit sent down. He has been absolutely lights out at AAA sporting 1.17ERA in 4 starts with a 38/3 K/BB ratio in 23IP. He may spend time in the bullpen at first, however you don't find many pitchers with his K potential very often on the waiver wire. He'll likely only get a few starts at best immediately, but those in keeper leagues should pay a lot of attention to him. Currently owned in 21% of CBS leagues, he's currently only worth a flyer in NL-only leagues. Once it's determined the length of time he'll be in the majors, I would then look at him for mixed-leagues,especially if your league counts K or K/9. You won't find very any others who can help you in these categories like he can, but currently it is only promise.