Pedro Pitch FX

I have a new Pitch FX article up at RotoSavants. Most of the graphs are over there but there is one that is too large to put over there.




The graph above shows how wildly his movement was on each pitch on each date. So it's not just one particular pitch that he doesn't have the "feel" for. He really doesn't have any feel for any of his pitches.

In Summary: Most of my analysis is over at RotoSavants but I don't think Pedro ever recovered from his shoulder injuries which given the nature of them doesn't surprise me at all. He was forced to try and reinvent himself from a power control pitcher to a contact pitcher because of his injuries. Back in the day he was consistently throwing in the mid to upper 90's and now he's releasing the ball at mid-80's at best and the ball gets to the plate at around 80 MPH. His stuff now doesn't differ all that much between pitches except for the curveball as expected. When the movement isn't as distinct between pitches, it makes it easier to hit the ball well. That's not good for a contact type pitcher.

Pedro's fall has been drastic in large part due to the injuries. Troy's analysis of him being an average pitcher at best is what I get as well, in fact I think he may be slightly worse than average according to Pitch FX.

Buy Low/Sell High July 26th (Ryan Zimmerman/Xavier Nady)

Buy Low: Ryan Zimmerman

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.237	3.58	0.24	1.491	15.09%
2007	0.257	3.99	0.49	1.653	16.67%
2006	0.283	3.88	0.51	1.815	16.81%

Power is the one thing that usually suffers when recovering from a labral tear in the non-throwing shoulder. Power was never really a huge part of his game, he was just a good all around hitter. His BABIP is extremely low as is his BB/SO ratio. Most likely his BABIP and BB/SO will begin to return to normal which will allow him to hit his pitches rather than hit pitchers’ pitches.

Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS for Martinez, Fernando OF NYM

Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS for Pence, Hunter CF HOU

Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS for Blake, Casey 3B CLE

Sell High: Xavier Nady

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.316	3.64	0.47	1.423	16.90%
2007	0.261	3.71	0.23	1.320	20.00%
2006	0.271	3.62	0.35	1.618	15.45%

Nady has turned a lucky BABIP at Pittsburgh into a deal to the Yankees that will only disappoint people. He’s going into a much tougher pitching division with Halladay, Beckett, Shields, Kazmir as just the aces. His BABIP is due to fall since his career norms are around .270. He may end up scoring a few more runs and RBIs in NY depending on where he hits in the order. I still think that you could get a good deal that can help you out down the stretch.

Gonzalez, Adrian 1B SD and Nady, Xavier RF PIT and
Wellemeyer, Todd SP STL for Beltran, Carlos CF NYM and
Pujols, Albert 1B STL

Kubel, Jason LF MIN and Nady, Xavier RF PIT for Nathan, Joe RP MIN

Nady, Xavier RF PIT for Ethier, Andre LF LA and Shields, James SP TB

Database issues

I'm having a slight issue with changing the database so that I can give you the fantasy numbers (HR, RBI, etc) as well as my normal in-depth analysis ones. I feel that I need to give you cold hard numbers on both end in order to maximize your reading time here.

I should have the issue resolved by this evening and should hopefully give me more time to my passion of Pitch FX. Thanks for being understanding.

If there is anything else you'd like to see in my posts, please let me know here.

Buy Low/Sell High July 24th (Joel Hanrahan/ Armando Galarraga)

Buy Low: Joel Hanrahan

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.296	1.970	30.0%	4.16	-0.059	17.32	3.83
2007	0.325	1.130	23.29%	6.08	-0.075	20.12	6.11
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

After the Rauch trade, Hanrahan has been named the closer for the Nationals. As I have started to say many times, at this point of the year Saves are Saves. His numbers across the board aren’t really great but they don’t have anyone else out there. You need to try and get him today before everyone else can put in a claim or his price skyrockets like Marte. He does strike out a ton of people so he will be able to help you in more than one category.

Hanrahan, Joel SP WAS for Perkins, Glen RP MIN

Hanrahan, Joel SP WAS for Golson, Greg OF PHI

Hanrahan, Joel SP WAS for Jones, Andruw CF LA

Sell High: Armando Galarraga

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.234	1.840	27.8%	4.77	-1.361	15.66	4.67
2007	0.25	0.860	25.57%	6.71	-0.480	17.13	7.59
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

You want to talk about being lucky. His FIP-ERA is a whopping 1.258. HIS BABIP is extremely low and he’s inefficient in his pitches. After carrying a perfect game into the 7^th last night you might be able to get a lot in return. Lastly his control is good but not nearly good enough to keep him at this level.

Galarraga, Armando SP DET for Putz, J.J. RP SEA

Galarraga, Armando SP DET and Wood, Kerry RP CHC for Bruce, Jay CF CIN and Wagner, Billy RP NYM

Galarraga, Armando SP DET for Ryan, B.J. RP TOR

Erik Bedard Injury Information

Today another piece of the Erik Bedard puzzle finally came to light courtesy of the Seattle - Post Intelligencer and that is he has internal impingement. Some places are describing this as merely soreness but nothing can be further from the truth. Internal impingement is a discernible pathology and one that is relatively serious for baseball pitchers.

First it is probably close to the leading cause of pain in the top back of shoulders in pitchers. Often times it's diagnosed as rotator cuff tendinitis. Internal impingement is where both the labrum and the rotator cuff tendons are involved and they get pinched between the head of humerus (the arm bone) and the acromion process of the shoulder blade (the bone on the very top outside of your shoulder).

Usually in pitchers it's because of the result of several things. One potential cause is the muscle weakness, in particular the subscapularis due to many minute traumas during pitching. This tends to be aggrevated during the cocking phase of throwing which occurs when the pitcher brings the arm out of the glove and lasts until the arm begins to accelerate forward. What happens is the muscle weakness cause the humeral head to slide around. This causes inflmmation and pain. The pain and inflammation causes the body to alter the motion and not use the muscles as much. This causes further weakening and the process kind of feeds into itself and snowballs out of control. When the shoulder blade muscles are weak, the shoulder blade moves around too much and it doesn't have a stable base or stay in the proper position. People who have rounded shoulders and/or slouch forward often have this problem.

Another potential cause is instability in the ligaments and joint capsule. During the throwing motion the same things happen. The range of motion that occurs during throwing stretches the ligaments over time which causes further instability. This instability can cause weakening of the muscles as noted above which can lead to further problems.

Another potential cause/problem is fraying at the top of the labrum. When this occurs the pinching of the tip of the labrum eventually begins to wear it down and break up the top of the labrum. This results in a loss of stability of the shoulder moving up which causes even further pinching. Again, it goes into a feedback mechanism where it gets worse and worse.

Summary: Shoulder injuries with baseball pitchers need advanced care when this begins to take hold. Ice and short rest often don't solve the problem. You need to attack all three problems at once or else you won't be successful. This is why it's going to take much longer for Erik to return than a normal 15 day rest. It often takes 4 weeks or more to calm the area down and strengthen the muscles to provide that stability. The ligaments never heal back to normal without surgery so strengthening the muscles is absolutely key.

Buy Low/Sell High July 23rd (Ian Stewart/Matt Joyce)

Buy Low: Ian Stewart

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.189	4.39	0.10	0.462	23.08%
2007	0.195	3.70	0.06	2.000	16.67%
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

The Rockies brought him back up in large part because of Helton’s injury and Jayson Nix’s Olympic duties. Helton’s back is at least a couple weeks away and Nix will be gone for several weeks as well. With that Atkins is said to be moving over to first which would open up a slot at 3b for him. The kid has mashed all through the minors and has been blocked for a while by Atkins. There is a chance that Atkins gets moved but you can’t bet the farm on that one. Instead, make sure you get Stewart for a good price and don’t overpay at all.

Stewart, Ian 3B COL for Scherzer, Max SP ARI

Meredith, Cla C. RP SD and Stewart, Ian 3B COL for Kuo, Hong-Chih SP LA

Sell High: Matt Joyce

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.229	3.89	0.43	0.935	29.03%
2007	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

He’s had a great run so far but he cannot keep his OPS up over 1.000. He’s never had a OPS above 875 and except for A ball, never had an OPS above 790 until now. He’s hitting almost 30 percent of his freaking FB out for HR! Who does he think he is Pujols? Even if his BABIP regresses the HR/FB will regress too. Time is running out to sell him so do it now!

Joyce, Matt OF DET for Chamberlain, Joba RP NYY

Joyce, Matt OF DET for Lackey, John SP ANA

Harden, Rich SP CHC and Hawpe, Brad RF COL and Joyce, Matt OF DET and Olsen, Scott SP FLA

For

Bruce, Jay CF CIN and Lowe, Derek SP LA and Sonnanstine, Andy SP TB