Keeper Analysis #9 - The Benchwarmers

Check out all my previous analysis here and then the round cost here.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Morneau (1), David Wright (1), and Carlos Lee (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates Mauer (5).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This eliminates no one.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and guaranteed majority of playing time. This eliminates no one.

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Orlando Cabrera (16), Miguel Tejada (10), Randy Johnson (13).

Unfortunately this doesn't eliminate a lot of people but this is what we're left with.

Hitters:

Pedroia (12)
A. Hill (16)
B. Hall (16)
Milledge (15)
Kemp (6)
Wells (4)
Fukudome (8)
Taveres (16)
Adrian Gonzalez (9)

Pitchers

Harang (3)
Garza (16)
Chris R Young (2)
Duchscherer (16)
Davies (16)
Harden (15)
Sanchez (16)

For the hitters I think it's safe to assume that we can eliminate Kemp (6), Wells (4), Fukudome (8), B. Hall (16), Taveras (16), and A. Hill (16) as their cost is too high or the talent level isn't on par with the rest. So that leaves us with:

Pedroia (12)
Milledge (15)
Adrian Gonzalez (9)

Milledge (15) has the above average talent but he only has given you average production so far. Also he plays for the Nationals so his RBIs and Rs will be hard to come by. So because of this I eliminate Milledge (15).

That leaves us with Pedroia (12) and Gonzalez (9). Both have had breakout seasons and both would be very good value where they are drafted. Pedroia's wOBA+ is 112 vs. Gonzalez's 113. Dustin's OPS+ is 124 while Adrian is 136. Pedroia's BABIP is .325 while Adrian's is .310 so both have enjoyed slightly higher than normal "luck".

One difference though is the trending of LD% which to me shows a different approach at the plate. Pedroia's has decreased each of the last 3 years while increased his FB% indicating to me that he's trying to hit more HR and use the wall in left field more often. Adrian has mostly maintained his LD% throughout the time meaning his success isn't a fluke. Adrian's HR/BIA is much better at 13.4% and has increased each of the last several years. Dustin's, despite having a phenomenal season, only has a 5% HR/BIA.

Plate discipline is almost important to me. I need to see whether or not a player is making progress at recognizing pitches and determining whether or not they can hit the ball hard. Dustin's overall % of pitches taken hasn't moved much in the last couple of years. Adrian's though has increased each of his years in the league and is now up to 53.8%. The key though is whether or not they were good pitches to take or bad ones.

Dustin's % of pitches taken that were balls has increased each year to a present 65.8% while his % pitches taken that were strikes has decreased to 34.2%. So even though he's not taking an overall greater # of pitches, he's recognizing them better and is producing more as well. Adrian's % of pitches taken for balls has really stabilized the last 3 years roughly around 74% as has his % of pitches taken for strikes around 26%.

So what we have are two players who have produced at a high level this year. One is a tiny second basemen and one is a big first basemen. One is improving his plate discipline while one is keeping his excellent level up.

So I think this comes down to the position they play. Dustin Pedroia has the highest VORP (62.1) of any 2B this year and does it in a position in which there are really only 4-5 good players. The drop off after this is large and you'd be stuck with roughly an average or slightly above average player. Adrian's VORP of 43.0 is top 10 of the 1B but it's still nowhere nears Pedroia's. It's also at a position where while those numbers are great, they don't stand out as much from other players at his position.

For this I eliminate Gonzalez (9) and keep Pedroia (12).

Pitchers:

We start out with this:
Harang (3)
Garza (16)
Chris R Young (2)
Duchscherer (16)
Davies (16)
Harden (15)
Sanchez (16)

I think we can safely eliminate Harang (3) and Chris R Young (2). These guys simply cost too high for their round cost. I think based on talent we can eliminate Davies (16). I also think that we can eliminate Duchscherer (16) based on his arthritic or pre-arthritic hip condition.

That leaves us with:
Garza (16)
Harden (15)
Sanchez (16)

All of them have been good pitchers this year and Harden has been simply amazing this year. All of them are young with Harden being the oldest at 26.

• Garza has the highest GB% at 41.8% while Harden has the lowest at 28.6%.
  
• Harden has the highest K% at 30% while Garza has the lowest at 16%.
  
• Garza also has the best BB% at 7.60% and Sanchez has worst at 10.79%.
  
• Harden has the best HR/BIA at around 4.5% while Garza has the worst at 5.66% although his has steadily decreased and could be below 5.3% next year.
• Harden has the best ERA+ at 210 while Sanchez has the worst at 86.

So I think with all of this I think we can immediately eliminate Sanchez (16). Now I think we need to bring in the health question of Harden. There has never been a question about his talent only his ability to stay healthy. Harden has a long list of injuries which has limited his effectiveness so far. Even with that I think we should choose Harden (15) here.

He is so talented while healthy that he is worth the risk at round 15. You could have an absolute steal here. He could help you dominate the league in K 's, ERA, and WHIP.

Summary: Pedroia (12) and Harden (15)

Keeper Analysis #8 - Operation Must Not Fail

Here's my latest analysis. For reference review the previous analysis and also the round cost.

Rule # 1: Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Alfonso Soriano (1) and Jake Peavy (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates B. Inge (16) and R. Hernandez (16).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This doesn't eliminate anyone.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and with regular playing time. This eliminates Stewart (16), Barmes (16), Span (16), and Wheeler (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a player who is a declining veteran. This eliminates Dye (6), Ibanez (9), and Hoffman (8).

That leaves us with:

Hitters:

Atkins (2),
Adam LaRoche (16),
Uggla (4),
Alexei Ramirez (16)
Ankiel (7),

Pitchers:

Cliff Lee (16)
Saunders (16)
Galaragga (16)
Volstad (16)
Eveland (16)
Carmona (13)
Shields (6)
Marquis (16)
Dempster (16)
Wood (16)

I set up another spreadsheet to follow along easier.For the hitters, I think we can all agree that of the group we should eliminate Atkins (2) and Adam LaRoche (16). So now we should discuss Uggla, Alexei Ramirez, and Ankiel. Based on wOBA+ alone, I think we can eliminate Ramirez (16).

So we have Uggla (4) versus Ankiel (7). While Uggla has a improving P/PA and HR/BIA he's not really improving his plate discipline. This is where Ankiel has the advantage. Ankiel is already producing similar power numbers but he's improving his plate discipline as measured by TkB% and TKS%. Also Ankiel is improving both his FB% and LD% unlike Uggla who's decreasing his LD%. So what we see with Uggla is when he hits the ball, he hits a HR. Ankiel appears to actually be a more complete hitter at this time and that's why I'm keeping Ankiel at 7. If I had Uggla in a similar round, I'd give him more thought but I feel that when you draft a hitter in the 4th round he needs to be more of a complete hitter.

We have a lot of pitchers on that list. I think out of the list we can eliminate Marquis, Dempster, Galarraga, Volstad, and Eveland right away. I know that Dempster has had an amazing season but he has come out of nowhere and I have concerns about his workload. So that leaves us with:

Cliff Lee (16)
Saunders (16)
Carmona (13)
Shields (6)
Wood (16)

I think we should eliminate Shields because you can probably redraft him there next year in round 6. That leaves us with:

Cliff Lee (16)
Saunders (16)
Carmona (13)
Wood (16)

I don't really like anything at first glance that says that I need to take him. Wood at 16 with all of the potential saves is very interesting but given his injury history and the fact that you can easily find saves each year late, I'm eliminating Wood (16).

Saunders BABIP is a little below .270 which is slightly low, everyone else's is in the normal range. One of the things I really look for is the GB% and the HR/BIA. Carmona is much better at this than either of them and that looks like he's got a leg up. Saunders K% has decreased each of the last couple years while his walk rate remained the same roughly so I'll eliminate Saunders (16)

Cliff Lee versus Carmona. Honestly it shouldn't have even come to this. The owner should have traded Lee during the height of his streak or at least immediately afterwards and be able to get a great younger keeper. Instead you have polar opposites to choose from. Do you keep Lee who easily could have just had his career year or do you choose Carmona who seemed to have stumbled a bit since the end of the year.

I would choose Carmona (13). Lee's meteoric rise from last year to this year is too suspicious to me and he's easily going to be regressing next year. Many people may easily think about this so you may be able to pick him up around round 10 if you feel really good about him next year. Carmona though has better GB%, LD%, FB%, and BABIP. I think he'll be much better physically next year which should only help his numbers more.

Summary: Ankiel (7) and Carmona (13)

Keeper Analysis #7 - Niko's Other Cousin

See all my previous analysis here and the grid here.

Rule #1: Never keep 1st rounders. This eliminates V. Martinez (1), Rollins (1), and Crawford (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates Navarro (16) and Molina (16).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This doesn't eliminate anyone.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and get the majority of playing time. This eliminates Hinske (16), Blake (16), Ethier (16), Scott (16), Church (16), Byrd (16), and Torres (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Hunter (4) and Gregg (13).

Leaves us with:

Hitters:
B.J. Upton (13)
A. Gordon (5)
A. Lind (16)
C.B. Young (11)

Pitchers:
Wainwright (9)
Looper (16)
Billingsley (13)
Floyd (16)
Nolasco (16)
Halladay (6)
B. Wilson (10)

Based on performance alone, I think we can only eliminate A. Gordon (5) off the bat. Everything thing else we'll have to evaluate so this will be a little more in depth than others. For the hitters, I have 2 Charts. Rather than list them out here, I put them in a google spreadsheet that everyone can see.

Looking in the first chart (Niko Event), there's nothing really that jumps out at me. Upton's numbers are down this year because of the shoulder injury and he is the only one above average in terms of wOBA+. The other thing I like about Upton is his LD% which fueled his BABIP.

The second chart (Nike hitter pitch) gives us much better information about whether or not a player is progressing as a hitter. Upton is the only one that is making significant progress in terms of plate discipline. The percentage of pitches taken that were strikes is down 7% from his rookie year while Lind's tkS% actually increased. C.B. Young's TkS% decreased as well but only by 2-3%. TkB% (pitches taken that were balls) appropriately increased for Upton and Young but decreased for Lind. To me this shows that Upton has made significant strides towards his plate discipline. Also, the overall # pitches per plate appearance is over 4 for Upton while a shade under 4 for Young and significantly under for Lind.

Because of this, I will eliminate Young (11) and Lind (16). I'm eliminating Young because he has a higher round value than Upton even though they will likely be similar.

For pitchers, there are a lot of options. Looking at tRA+ (similar to ERA+), we can eliminate Looper (16) and Floyd (16) as both are under 100 (an average pitcher). I think we can eliminate Wainwright (9) due to a combination of injuries and round. For the same reason, I think we can eliminate Halladay. Keeping him at round 6 would be handicapping yourself and buying into the notion that he will have just as good a year as this year. I can't see that happening as he declined in the previous 2 years. So I eliminate Halladay (6).

That leaves us with Nolasco (16), Billingsley (13), and Wilson (10). Of those, I think Billingsley clearly has the best numbers. He has the highest GB% of the three and the highest K% of the 3. He also gives up the lowest HR/BIA. Given those I normally would keep Billingsley (13) but you can't keep two players in the same round, so I choose to keep Nolasco.

Summary: Keep Upton (13) and Nolasco (16).