Keeper Analysis #8 - Operation Must Not Fail

Here's my latest analysis. For reference review the previous analysis and also the round cost.

Rule # 1: Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Alfonso Soriano (1) and Jake Peavy (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates B. Inge (16) and R. Hernandez (16).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This doesn't eliminate anyone.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and with regular playing time. This eliminates Stewart (16), Barmes (16), Span (16), and Wheeler (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a player who is a declining veteran. This eliminates Dye (6), Ibanez (9), and Hoffman (8).

That leaves us with:

Hitters:

Atkins (2),
Adam LaRoche (16),
Uggla (4),
Alexei Ramirez (16)
Ankiel (7),

Pitchers:

Cliff Lee (16)
Saunders (16)
Galaragga (16)
Volstad (16)
Eveland (16)
Carmona (13)
Shields (6)
Marquis (16)
Dempster (16)
Wood (16)

I set up another spreadsheet to follow along easier.For the hitters, I think we can all agree that of the group we should eliminate Atkins (2) and Adam LaRoche (16). So now we should discuss Uggla, Alexei Ramirez, and Ankiel. Based on wOBA+ alone, I think we can eliminate Ramirez (16).

So we have Uggla (4) versus Ankiel (7). While Uggla has a improving P/PA and HR/BIA he's not really improving his plate discipline. This is where Ankiel has the advantage. Ankiel is already producing similar power numbers but he's improving his plate discipline as measured by TkB% and TKS%. Also Ankiel is improving both his FB% and LD% unlike Uggla who's decreasing his LD%. So what we see with Uggla is when he hits the ball, he hits a HR. Ankiel appears to actually be a more complete hitter at this time and that's why I'm keeping Ankiel at 7. If I had Uggla in a similar round, I'd give him more thought but I feel that when you draft a hitter in the 4th round he needs to be more of a complete hitter.

We have a lot of pitchers on that list. I think out of the list we can eliminate Marquis, Dempster, Galarraga, Volstad, and Eveland right away. I know that Dempster has had an amazing season but he has come out of nowhere and I have concerns about his workload. So that leaves us with:

Cliff Lee (16)
Saunders (16)
Carmona (13)
Shields (6)
Wood (16)

I think we should eliminate Shields because you can probably redraft him there next year in round 6. That leaves us with:

Cliff Lee (16)
Saunders (16)
Carmona (13)
Wood (16)

I don't really like anything at first glance that says that I need to take him. Wood at 16 with all of the potential saves is very interesting but given his injury history and the fact that you can easily find saves each year late, I'm eliminating Wood (16).

Saunders BABIP is a little below .270 which is slightly low, everyone else's is in the normal range. One of the things I really look for is the GB% and the HR/BIA. Carmona is much better at this than either of them and that looks like he's got a leg up. Saunders K% has decreased each of the last couple years while his walk rate remained the same roughly so I'll eliminate Saunders (16)

Cliff Lee versus Carmona. Honestly it shouldn't have even come to this. The owner should have traded Lee during the height of his streak or at least immediately afterwards and be able to get a great younger keeper. Instead you have polar opposites to choose from. Do you keep Lee who easily could have just had his career year or do you choose Carmona who seemed to have stumbled a bit since the end of the year.

I would choose Carmona (13). Lee's meteoric rise from last year to this year is too suspicious to me and he's easily going to be regressing next year. Many people may easily think about this so you may be able to pick him up around round 10 if you feel really good about him next year. Carmona though has better GB%, LD%, FB%, and BABIP. I think he'll be much better physically next year which should only help his numbers more.

Summary: Ankiel (7) and Carmona (13)