Keeper Analysis #9 - The Benchwarmers

Check out all my previous analysis here and then the round cost here.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Morneau (1), David Wright (1), and Carlos Lee (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates Mauer (5).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This eliminates no one.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and guaranteed majority of playing time. This eliminates no one.

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Orlando Cabrera (16), Miguel Tejada (10), Randy Johnson (13).

Unfortunately this doesn't eliminate a lot of people but this is what we're left with.

Hitters:

Pedroia (12)
A. Hill (16)
B. Hall (16)
Milledge (15)
Kemp (6)
Wells (4)
Fukudome (8)
Taveres (16)
Adrian Gonzalez (9)

Pitchers

Harang (3)
Garza (16)
Chris R Young (2)
Duchscherer (16)
Davies (16)
Harden (15)
Sanchez (16)

For the hitters I think it's safe to assume that we can eliminate Kemp (6), Wells (4), Fukudome (8), B. Hall (16), Taveras (16), and A. Hill (16) as their cost is too high or the talent level isn't on par with the rest. So that leaves us with:

Pedroia (12)
Milledge (15)
Adrian Gonzalez (9)

Milledge (15) has the above average talent but he only has given you average production so far. Also he plays for the Nationals so his RBIs and Rs will be hard to come by. So because of this I eliminate Milledge (15).

That leaves us with Pedroia (12) and Gonzalez (9). Both have had breakout seasons and both would be very good value where they are drafted. Pedroia's wOBA+ is 112 vs. Gonzalez's 113. Dustin's OPS+ is 124 while Adrian is 136. Pedroia's BABIP is .325 while Adrian's is .310 so both have enjoyed slightly higher than normal "luck".

One difference though is the trending of LD% which to me shows a different approach at the plate. Pedroia's has decreased each of the last 3 years while increased his FB% indicating to me that he's trying to hit more HR and use the wall in left field more often. Adrian has mostly maintained his LD% throughout the time meaning his success isn't a fluke. Adrian's HR/BIA is much better at 13.4% and has increased each of the last several years. Dustin's, despite having a phenomenal season, only has a 5% HR/BIA.

Plate discipline is almost important to me. I need to see whether or not a player is making progress at recognizing pitches and determining whether or not they can hit the ball hard. Dustin's overall % of pitches taken hasn't moved much in the last couple of years. Adrian's though has increased each of his years in the league and is now up to 53.8%. The key though is whether or not they were good pitches to take or bad ones.

Dustin's % of pitches taken that were balls has increased each year to a present 65.8% while his % pitches taken that were strikes has decreased to 34.2%. So even though he's not taking an overall greater # of pitches, he's recognizing them better and is producing more as well. Adrian's % of pitches taken for balls has really stabilized the last 3 years roughly around 74% as has his % of pitches taken for strikes around 26%.

So what we have are two players who have produced at a high level this year. One is a tiny second basemen and one is a big first basemen. One is improving his plate discipline while one is keeping his excellent level up.

So I think this comes down to the position they play. Dustin Pedroia has the highest VORP (62.1) of any 2B this year and does it in a position in which there are really only 4-5 good players. The drop off after this is large and you'd be stuck with roughly an average or slightly above average player. Adrian's VORP of 43.0 is top 10 of the 1B but it's still nowhere nears Pedroia's. It's also at a position where while those numbers are great, they don't stand out as much from other players at his position.

For this I eliminate Gonzalez (9) and keep Pedroia (12).

Pitchers:

We start out with this:
Harang (3)
Garza (16)
Chris R Young (2)
Duchscherer (16)
Davies (16)
Harden (15)
Sanchez (16)

I think we can safely eliminate Harang (3) and Chris R Young (2). These guys simply cost too high for their round cost. I think based on talent we can eliminate Davies (16). I also think that we can eliminate Duchscherer (16) based on his arthritic or pre-arthritic hip condition.

That leaves us with:
Garza (16)
Harden (15)
Sanchez (16)

All of them have been good pitchers this year and Harden has been simply amazing this year. All of them are young with Harden being the oldest at 26.

• Garza has the highest GB% at 41.8% while Harden has the lowest at 28.6%.
  
• Harden has the highest K% at 30% while Garza has the lowest at 16%.
  
• Garza also has the best BB% at 7.60% and Sanchez has worst at 10.79%.
  
• Harden has the best HR/BIA at around 4.5% while Garza has the worst at 5.66% although his has steadily decreased and could be below 5.3% next year.
• Harden has the best ERA+ at 210 while Sanchez has the worst at 86.

So I think with all of this I think we can immediately eliminate Sanchez (16). Now I think we need to bring in the health question of Harden. There has never been a question about his talent only his ability to stay healthy. Harden has a long list of injuries which has limited his effectiveness so far. Even with that I think we should choose Harden (15) here.

He is so talented while healthy that he is worth the risk at round 15. You could have an absolute steal here. He could help you dominate the league in K 's, ERA, and WHIP.

Summary: Pedroia (12) and Harden (15)