Buy Low/ Sell High ---May 31st

Buy Low: Nick Swisher

Key Stats:

G	AB	R		H	2B	3B		HR	RBI		SB	BB	SO		BA	OBP
53	182	25		37	6	1		4	14		1	34	45		0.203	0.33
BABIP			BB/SO				P/PA			GB/FB				HR/FB
0.248			0.76				4.49			0.961				7.84%

Swisher has been a bit unlucky this year in both the BABIP department and in the HR/FB department. In 2006 he had a .287 BABIP and a HR/FB % of 23.81%. In 2007 he had a BABIP of .308 and a HR/FB% of 16.54%. Most likely these numbers will return to his normal as the year goes on. As you can see he is below what he normally does in almost every category. As time goes on and Quentin continues his hot streak, the hot air in Chicago will help lead to greater power numbers.

Swisher, Nick RF CHW for Perez, Odalis SP WAS

Swisher, Nick RF CHW for Pierzynski, A.J. C CHW

Swisher, Nick RF CHW for Rasner, Darrell SP NYY

Sell High: Ryan Dempster

Key Stats: 

W	L	SV		IP	H	ER		HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
6	2	0		70	48	20		4	29	56		2.60	1.10
BABIP			K/BB				PTO%				QuickERA
0.227			1.930				28.2%				4.268

Well as you can see here Dempster has been extremely lucky so far. The only good peripheral number is the PTO% and even that doesn’t support the numbers that he currently has. His BABIP is ound to increase which means a higher WIP, ERA, etc. Try to move him ASAP.

Dempster, Ryan RP CHC for Markakis, Nick RF BAL

Dempster, Ryan RP CHC for Fukudome, Kosuke RF CHC

Dempster, Ryan RP CHC for Putz, J.J. RP SEA

Buy Low/Sell High --May 30th

Buy Low: Andrew Miller

Key Stats:

W	L	SV		IP	H	ER		HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
4	4	0		55.3	70	34		4	23	46		5.53	1.681
BABIP			K/BB				PTO%				QuickERA
0.379			2.000				25.4%				4.595

One of the prizes in the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes, Andrew started off the year extremely poorly. He didn’t have good command nor did he have any luck. His lack of luck has carried on through the season to the tune of .379 BABIP. Very very very few pitchers ever end up with a BABIP that high and those that do usually end up in the minors. I highly doubt this will happen. Andrew is simply too good. His qERA is a full run better than what it is and if you take all those extra hits from the BABIP and factor in having to throw extra pitches because of them, his WHIP is likely around 1.50. Still horrendous but in the last 4 games he has given up 26 baserunners in 23.3 IP while striking out 25. So including his latest start in which he got bombed his WHIP in the last 4 games is 1.15, his K/BB is 3.125, and his K/9 is 9.65. Those are the numbers that you have to look at and those numbers will help any fantasy team.

You can get him hopefully on the wire but if not you can look at these possible trades:

Miller, Andrew SP FLA for Encarnacion, Edwin 3B CIN

Miller, Andrew SP FLA for Hawpe, Brad RF COL

Miller, Andrew SP FLA for Sanchez, Jonathan O. RP SF

Sell High: Dan Uggla

Key Stats: 

G	AB	R		H	2B	3B		HR	RBI		SB	BB	SO		BA	OBP
51	192	41		59	19	1		16	38		2	23	58		0.307	0.39
BABIP			BB/SO				P/PA			GB/FB				HR/FB
0.364			0.40				4.10			0.772				28.07%

Ok look I know this might be sacrilegious to some who like to ride the streaks but let me ask you this. How long do you think he can keep up those stats. How many hitters can hit 28% of all FB for HR or walk as little as he does or have such a high BABIP play out over the season. Personally I don’t. Hitters tend to regress to their career levels over the year. Historically his BABIP was .292 in 2006 and .286 in 2007. To jump that much and keep it over the whole season is insane. And just for the sake of thoroughness, his HR/FB was 15.9% in 2006 and 18.3% in 2007. Great streak right now yes, but life-changing approach at the plate. No. Here’s what you can get for him:

Uggla, Dan 2B FLA for Upton, B.J. CF TB

Uggla, Dan 2B FLA for Beckett, Josh SP BOS

Uggla, Dan 2B FLA for Santana, Johan SP NYM

Uggla, Dan 2B FLA for Papelbon, Jonathan RP BOS

Matsuzaka Fatigue Breakdown

Surprise surprise Matsuzaka had to be removed from the game the other day because of "shoulder fatigue" and he is set to get an MRI back here in Boston. Something isn't right, I think. For a guy who has this great stuff to be suffering from fatigue alone is highly unlikely given how much he used to throw in Japan during his starts and in between. In fact after last year's tailing off, the Red Sox altered his throwing program in order to keep him fresh for the whole year.

Injuries to the throwing arm, and especially the shoulder, are difficult to pick up on until they are there. One of the best indicators though is loss of control even if the injury is not known to the pitcher at the time, think of stress fractures or microinstability.

Summary statistics from 2007:

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
4.40	.556	8.8	3.5	1.10	2.51

and now this year:

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
2.58	1.000	6.9	5.7	.34	1.21

Sometimes all you have to do is look at the K/9 and the K/BB ratio to determine whether or not something is wrong. From last year to this year, his k/9 and his K/BB has dropped off significiantly. Something isn't right with his shoulder. Pure speculation is that there is a muscle imbalance in his posterior shoulder as well as tightness in his posterior capsule (some of which is normal for pitchers) which is leading him to release the ball differently than before, resulting in his loss of command.

To keep it simple, I'm just going to compare his summary of all his starts from and compare them to 2008 in order to see if this is correct. Using Josh Kalk's players cards from baseball.bornbybits.com







Now on to 2008:




So what can we learn from this? Is anything different? First off his release point is a lot more towards 0. It looks to be mostly between -2 to -3 last year and this year it looks to be -3 to -4. This could mean he's coming more from the side, dropping his arm angle down in an attempt to take some pressure/pain away from the shoulder. It is similar to what John Smoltz is trying to do right now in Atlanta. It doesn't solve any problem though. It is merely a remedy for a symptom (pain) and not for the condition (whatever underlying pathology it is).

If you look at his movement you can tell even more glaring differences. His movement isn't there on many pitches, especially his change. This year it is basically coming in just like a fast ball except a little slower. His change-up in particular isn't moving as much as in 2007. It has more horizontal movement than vertical movement. MLB pitching relies on two things, location and vertical movement only. Horizontal movement of a pitch means that if you have a mistake pitch with your location, instead of being in on the hands; it is on the barrel of the bat. Now with vertical movement, if you have a mistake pitch with your location, instead of it being in on your hands it is at your feet in the dirt.

That is the key distinction of why scouts much prefer "break" than "movement". Break usually refers to the vertical component of movement while movement refers to the horizontal.

All of this points to something is wrong with his shoulder. Could it be something minor? Of course it can, but it will likely require a DL stint for probably close to 30 days if only to keep him in check. He has been known to try and "throw" his way back from an injury and rehab that way back in Japan but obviously that hasn't exactly worked out perfectly well here.

Buy Low/Sell High (May 27th, 2008)

Buy Low: Randy Johnson

Key Stats:

W	L	SV		IP	H	ER		HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
4	1	0		44.7	47	20		5	12	47		4.03	1.321
BABIP			SO/BB				PTO%				QERA
0.341			3.92				31.33%				3.245979

Am I expecting the Randy Johnson of around 2000 to suddenly return? The answer is definitely no, but at times he can take it to vintage Randy and strike out 10 like he did last week. His BABIP is a little elevated so that should come down and help get his WHIP to under 1.30 but the thing I like most is his SO/BB ratio and his PTO%. These are both excellent numbers that show that he still has his command and control and can make people miss. Having a higher PTO% also means that he is getting hitters out more efficiently and can thus go into games deeper. You can get him for:

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Jackson, Conor 1B ARI

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Gallagher, Sean RP CHC

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Francis, Jeff SP COL

Sell High: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Key Stats: 

W	L	IP		H	ER	HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
8	0	60		41	16	4	38	53		2.4	1.317
BABIP			SO/BB			PTO%			QERA
0.236			1.39			27.16%			5.443318

I write this watching the Daisuke already give up 3 runs to the Mariners and I knew it was only a matter of time before the Daisuke love hit the wall. He is walking an astronomical number of hitters. For someone who supposedly has great stuff to have a SO/BB ratio of less than 1.5 is disgraceful. Aces do not have this low a ratio no matter what. His PTO% or dominance is also low for what “aces” supposedly are, which come in around 34-35%. His BABIP of .236 just goes to show you how lucky his ERA has been as his qERA is 3 runs higher!!!!!!

Here’s what you can get for him and do it now:

Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Suzuki, Ichiro CF SEA

Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Holliday, Matt LF COL (although he is hurt currently)

Kotchman, Casey 1B ANA and Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY

Buy Low/Sell High 5/26/08

First off thank you to all the veterans out there and their families for all that they have done for our country and our citizens. Good luck to all.

Buy Low: Mark Ellis

Key Stats:

G	AB	R		H	2B	3B		HR	RBI	SB		CS	BB	SO		BA	OBP
42	163	22		39	8	2		4	16	5		2	20	20		0.239	0.324
BABIP			BB/SO				P/PA				GB/FB				HR/FB
0.252			1.00				3.99				0.939				8.16%

Mark is having another year that sometimes causes you to scratch your head. Just when it looks like he was starting to really put things together last year, he has so far under-performed a little bit. His BABIP is a big reason for that but also his declining GB/FB ratio. To me it is amazing that for someone who hits this many FB he only has 4 HR. Even though his HR/FB% is consistent with his career average, his GB/FB ratio has dropped severely. More FB should mean at least 1-2 more HR than what he has. A big reason why his overall numbers are down is because he was dealing with a hamstring issue. It appears that he is healthy and ready to contribute so he should be in someone’s lineup soon.

Ellis, Mark 2B OAK for Lopez, Felipe SS WAS and Torres, Salomon RP MIL

Ellis, Mark 2B OAK for Villanueva, Carlos SP MIL

Ellis, Mark 2B OAK for Denorfia, Chris LF OAK

Sell High: Joe Mauer

Key Stats: 

G	AB	R		H	2B	3B		HR	RBI	SB		CS	BB	SO		BA	OBP
45	160	29		54	10	1		0	20	0		1	23	13		0.338	0.416
BABIP			BB/SO				P/PA				GB/FB				HR/FB
0.367			1.77				3.94				2.000				0.00%

For the last several years Joe has been living on reputation. This year is no exception. First off, he still does not have a single home run. They (scouts and fantasy players alike) expected that he would continue to grow into his body and begin to have 20HR power. We are now about 1/3 of the way through the season and he still does not have a single home run. Not good enough for me as your #1 catcher. Also he has been extremely lucky this year with his balls in play falling in for hits (it’s at .367!!!!!!!!!!!!) His GB/FB ratio is in line with his career averages but his BB/SO ratio has climbed dramatically. Trade him while you can before people realize his HR power is non-existent this year.

This is what you could get for him according to CBS fantasy baseball recent trades.

Mauer, Joe C MIN for Longoria, Evan 3B TB and Rodriguez, Ivan C DET

Mauer, Joe C MIN for Oswalt, Roy SP HOU

Mauer, Joe C MIN for Beltran, Carlos CF NYM