Buy Low/Sell High (May 27th, 2008)

Buy Low: Randy Johnson

Key Stats:

W	L	SV		IP	H	ER		HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
4	1	0		44.7	47	20		5	12	47		4.03	1.321
BABIP			SO/BB				PTO%				QERA
0.341			3.92				31.33%				3.245979

Am I expecting the Randy Johnson of around 2000 to suddenly return? The answer is definitely no, but at times he can take it to vintage Randy and strike out 10 like he did last week. His BABIP is a little elevated so that should come down and help get his WHIP to under 1.30 but the thing I like most is his SO/BB ratio and his PTO%. These are both excellent numbers that show that he still has his command and control and can make people miss. Having a higher PTO% also means that he is getting hitters out more efficiently and can thus go into games deeper. You can get him for:

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Jackson, Conor 1B ARI

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Gallagher, Sean RP CHC

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Francis, Jeff SP COL

Sell High: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Key Stats: 

W	L	IP		H	ER	HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
8	0	60		41	16	4	38	53		2.4	1.317
BABIP			SO/BB			PTO%			QERA
0.236			1.39			27.16%			5.443318

I write this watching the Daisuke already give up 3 runs to the Mariners and I knew it was only a matter of time before the Daisuke love hit the wall. He is walking an astronomical number of hitters. For someone who supposedly has great stuff to have a SO/BB ratio of less than 1.5 is disgraceful. Aces do not have this low a ratio no matter what. His PTO% or dominance is also low for what “aces” supposedly are, which come in around 34-35%. His BABIP of .236 just goes to show you how lucky his ERA has been as his qERA is 3 runs higher!!!!!!

Here’s what you can get for him and do it now:

Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Suzuki, Ichiro CF SEA

Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Holliday, Matt LF COL (although he is hurt currently)

Kotchman, Casey 1B ANA and Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY