Matsuzaka Fatigue Breakdown

Surprise surprise Matsuzaka had to be removed from the game the other day because of "shoulder fatigue" and he is set to get an MRI back here in Boston. Something isn't right, I think. For a guy who has this great stuff to be suffering from fatigue alone is highly unlikely given how much he used to throw in Japan during his starts and in between. In fact after last year's tailing off, the Red Sox altered his throwing program in order to keep him fresh for the whole year.

Injuries to the throwing arm, and especially the shoulder, are difficult to pick up on until they are there. One of the best indicators though is loss of control even if the injury is not known to the pitcher at the time, think of stress fractures or microinstability.

Summary statistics from 2007:

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
4.40	.556	8.8	3.5	1.10	2.51

and now this year:

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
2.58	1.000	6.9	5.7	.34	1.21

Sometimes all you have to do is look at the K/9 and the K/BB ratio to determine whether or not something is wrong. From last year to this year, his k/9 and his K/BB has dropped off significiantly. Something isn't right with his shoulder. Pure speculation is that there is a muscle imbalance in his posterior shoulder as well as tightness in his posterior capsule (some of which is normal for pitchers) which is leading him to release the ball differently than before, resulting in his loss of command.

To keep it simple, I'm just going to compare his summary of all his starts from and compare them to 2008 in order to see if this is correct. Using Josh Kalk's players cards from baseball.bornbybits.com







Now on to 2008:




So what can we learn from this? Is anything different? First off his release point is a lot more towards 0. It looks to be mostly between -2 to -3 last year and this year it looks to be -3 to -4. This could mean he's coming more from the side, dropping his arm angle down in an attempt to take some pressure/pain away from the shoulder. It is similar to what John Smoltz is trying to do right now in Atlanta. It doesn't solve any problem though. It is merely a remedy for a symptom (pain) and not for the condition (whatever underlying pathology it is).

If you look at his movement you can tell even more glaring differences. His movement isn't there on many pitches, especially his change. This year it is basically coming in just like a fast ball except a little slower. His change-up in particular isn't moving as much as in 2007. It has more horizontal movement than vertical movement. MLB pitching relies on two things, location and vertical movement only. Horizontal movement of a pitch means that if you have a mistake pitch with your location, instead of being in on the hands; it is on the barrel of the bat. Now with vertical movement, if you have a mistake pitch with your location, instead of it being in on your hands it is at your feet in the dirt.

That is the key distinction of why scouts much prefer "break" than "movement". Break usually refers to the vertical component of movement while movement refers to the horizontal.

All of this points to something is wrong with his shoulder. Could it be something minor? Of course it can, but it will likely require a DL stint for probably close to 30 days if only to keep him in check. He has been known to try and "throw" his way back from an injury and rehab that way back in Japan but obviously that hasn't exactly worked out perfectly well here.