Keeper Analysis #6 - My Team Sucks

Our 6th installment is one that's going to make our decisions fairly difficult. To see all of the other ones check here while seeing the round cost here.

Rule #1: Never keep a player in the first round. This one hurts me but it eliminates Hanley Ramirez (1), Fielder (1), and Hamels (1). The one that hurts is Hanley. He gives such and incredible blend of power and speed that it is scary. The one knock on him is that his scoring and RBI opportunities may not be there. Even in his amazing run of two years driven in an average of about 70 RBIs.

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates Shoppach (16) even though he's had a good year. Catchers never play every game and if they do they'll wear down at the end.

Rule #3: Never keep a closer if he'll cost you more than a 5th round pick. This eliminates Putz (4).

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined. This eliminates Polanco (16), Hawpe (3), Baldelli (11), Jackson (16), and C. Perez (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Willingham (13).

That leaves us with:

Hitters:

Hanley Ramirez (1)
Cano (5)
Rowand (10)
Cruz (16)
Headley (16)

Pitchers:

Maine (13)
Pelfrey (16)
Kazmir (2)

Let's look at the Hitters first. After this season I think it's safe to say that Cano and Rowand are not really keeper material. So do you want to go with youth or experience. I say you'd keep Hanley Ramirez and this is why. This is from Statcorner.com

Year	PA	wOBA	wOBA*	lgwOBA	wOBA+
2005	2	0.000	0.000	0.339	0
2006	700	0.371	0.372	0.338	110
2007	706	0.407	0.410	0.332	123
2008	668	0.407	0.409	0.327	125

Year	Ptc	TkB%	TkS%
2005	11	50.0%	50.0%
2006	2804	65.6%	34.4%
2007	2565	68.7%	31.3%
2008	2766	70.5%	29.5%

The wOBA+ is fairly straightforward and that is the OBA compared to the rest of the league. Statcorner uses it to compare a player to everyone else. You can see he has improved each of the last 3 years. Currently Headley is a little bit over 100 while Cruz's is in the low 130s but only over 97 PA. To me the biggest thing about Ramirez is looking at the second group of numbers. Each of the last 3 years he has improved his pitch selection. TkB% is the percentage of pitches taken that were balls and has risen steadily. TkS% is therefore the percentage of pitches taken that were strikes has dropped steadily. He's improving his pitch selection and starting to finally take walks and progress as a hitter. I expect a monster season from him next year.

Thus, I keep Hanley (1).

Pitching similarly really isn't that different. Kazmir is a good pitcher but he is not worth a 2nd round pick, at least in our league. He's likely a #mid 3-4 round pick in my opinion based on his late season inconsistency.

John Maine (13) versus Mike Pelfrey (16). Going back to Statcorner.com, tRa+ measures a pitchers effectiveness. "tRA involves assigning run and out values to all events under a pitcher's control and coming up with an expected number of runs allowed and outs generated in a defense and park neutral environment." tRa+ is therefore the difference when compared to others in the league. Maine has a tRa+ of 100 meaning he's exactly league average while Pelfrey is 110.

Another metric is the BB%. Maine's has increased in each of the last 3 years (8.86, 9.26, 11.02%) while Pelfrey's has actually decreased in each of the last 3 years (12.12, 11.15, 7.63%) Pelfrey's BABIP is also a more realistic .302 while Maine's is .266. Pelfrey has a much better GB rate than Maine by 10% and finally the real kicker to me is that Pelfrey has a much better HR%/BIA (ball in air) 3.65% to 6.56% .

Because of all of that, I eliminate Maine and would keep Pelfrey (16). Maine does give a better K% but you can make that up in other places.

Summary: Hanley (1) and Pelfrey (16).

Keeper Analysis #5 - "I Suck"

You can see the first four here, here, here, and here. You can see what the value would cost here.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder, unless Utley and Rodriguez. I need to amend that slightly in this case because he could keep Pujols in the 1st round but I would only do it if he's drafting near the end of the first round. For now, I'm ruling Pujols out though because we don't know where he's going to draft and there is the risk of Pujols getting the surgery. This eliminates Pujols (1), Rios (1), and verlander (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a closer if he costs more than a 5th rounder. He does have Papelbon and it would only cost a 6th rounder so he looks like a very promising choice to keep.

Rule #3: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates C. Snyder (13) and Ivan Rodriguez (16).

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined. That maybe eliminates Blalock (16), D. Young (16) and Wigginton (16).

Rule # 5: Never keep a declining veteran. That eliminates Thome (7), Huff despite a career year (16), Cantu (16), Winn (16), Guzman (16), and Oswalt (4).

That leaves us with:

Hitters
C Kotchman (16)
H Kendrick (8)
R Zimmerman (3)
B Harris (16)
M Ordonez (4)
D Murphy (16)
E Dukes (16)
F Lewis (16)

Pitching:
J Blanton (12)
J Jurrjens (16)
C Ray (16)
J Papelbon (6)


For the pitching side, I think the clear cut winner is Papelbon at 6. In this league closers start to go at the very end of round 4 and early round 5 so we're not getting a huge advantage value-wise but knowing you have those 40 Saves in the bank is very comforting. Also the other options simply are not that good in my eyes.

For the hitters, this is difficult simply because it's so full of crap. Zimmerman at 3 is way to high so we can eliminate him. Ordonez looks to have taken a step back in terms of his power and in round 4 I'd want either a high power guy or someone who goes 20/20 for me. Ordonez doesn't run so he's eliminated. Fred Lewis is barely above average and doesn't project to be a superstar/keeper level so he is eliminated. Brenden Harris isn't anything special and may not be above average at all so he's eliminated. Dukes can't stay healthy and you also can't predict when he's going to explode so he's eliminated. Kotchman has been an average hitter for the last several years and out of your 1st baseman, especially your keeper 1st baseman, you want Ryan Howard/Pujols kind of numbers. Kotchman is now eliminated.

So that leaves us with David Murphy (16) and Howie Kendrick (8). Kendrick is appealing because he has the talent to win multiple batting titles. His problem is that he's having trouble staying healthy. Murphy's problem has been the slow development of his bat but he seems to have turned it around. Murphy will give you a 20/10 which is especially valuable and that's if he doesn't improve from this year to the next. Kendrick offers you high average with some speed. Which do you choose?

I chose David Murphy at 16. To me you never want to really gamble on someone in the single digits. There is a very good chance you could have Kendrick at 8 again if you really like him but there's s good possibility Murphy won't be around at 16. I think you can expect a similar year to Murphy's year right now with the potential to add a few on each of the counting stats.

Summary: Murphy (16) and Papelbon (6)

ER Recruiter addendum

I feel ashamed for not even remembering this guy was on my team but I completely forgot about Max Scherzer (16).

This completely changes the dynamic of my pitching keeper. I think Liriano will be much better than in the past now that he's almost completely back from Tommy John surgery, but I was always a little hesitant to use a 6th rounder on him. I think that there is a good chance I can draft him again around there unless Troy and Lee screw me over. Because his numbers were so awful when he first came back, it skews his overall numbers for the year so there is a good chance you can draft him there too.

Scherzer will be a 16th rounder. He strikes guys out by the ton and he has some of the best stuff of any young pitcher in the game. In 45 innings this year he has struck out an amazing 54 hitters while only walking 18. His BABIP is higher than what it should be and that could normalize.

So now I'm really left with Liriano at 6 or Scherzer at 16. Right now as of this minute, I'm now leaning towards Scherzer at 16.

Keeper Analysis # 4 (I Spit Hot Fire)

Looks like my choice of Longoria over Hamilton touched off a few differences of opinion. To review, my previous analysis is here, here, and here.

Everyone's cost is here.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder. That eliminates Berkman (1), Ramirez (1), and Holliday (1).

Rule #2 Never keep a closer. That eliminates Marmol (16) and Rauch (16).

Rule #3 Never keep a catcher. That eliminates Napoli (13) and Varitek (16).

Rule #4 Never keep a player whose role is not known. That eliminates Lowrie (16) and Edwin Encarnacion (16).

Rule #5 Never keep a declining veteran. That eliminates Frank Thomas (16), Ted Lilly (12), Khalil Greene (11), Randy Wolf (16), and E.

Byrnes (2).

That leaves a pretty thin crop.

Hitters:

B. Phillips (8)

M. Aviles (16)

J. Bay (5)

P. Burrell (7)

X. Nady (16)

Pitchers:

AJ Burnett (8)

J. Beckett (3)

D. Rasner (16)

God I'm glad I don't own this team. Just my quick general opinion is that you'd keep Phillips at 8 and hope for a rebound. Aviles could end up being the best value at 16 but there's simply too much uncertainty in his future performance. Add in the fact that he plays for the Royals and he won't exactly be driving in a ton or scoring a lot.

Jason Bay at 5 is too high and you could easily draft him there anyways. Finally I just don't think that Nady is that great a hitter.

Let's let the numbers decide though.

To start off with I decided to do a quick OPS+ comparison for the hitters. B. Phillips averaged under 100 over the last 3 years, while Aviles has an OPS+ of 113 this year. Jason Bay has posted an average of over 130 while Burrell has averaged in the low 120s. Finally Nady is having a 130+ season but previously never got above 110. Immediately I see that keeping Phillips at 8 would be a mistake. I would much rather have Burrell or Bay rather than Phillips or Aviles. I would eliminate Aviles (16), Phillips (8), and Nady (16).

So now we have Bay (5) versus Burrell (7). Bay has made improved contact the last couple years while Burrell's is declining. Burrell's LD % is declining each of the last 3 years while Bay's have remained constant. wOBA+ is about the same for each of them. Bay has speed while Burrell doesn't. For me, that's the difference. I firmly believe that you should draft many players that can get you 15 SB rather than 1 guy with 60SB and nothing else. Bay at 5 is my keeper.

For pitchers I think its straightforward who you would keep if you absolutely had to keep one, AJ Burnett at 8. The problem is that you should probably keep Phillips there. I don't think you should keep Beckett at 3 as you could probably be able to redraft him there unless you have some psycho Red Sox fans. And Rasner is too much of an unknown in order to be kept. So guess what, for the first and probably the last I recommend not keeping any pitcher.

Summary: Bay (5) and no pitcher

Keeper Analysis #3 (ER Recruiter)

The third installment is my team ER Recruiter. You can see the analysis of 108 Stitches and Emporers VIP Club to see my previous thoughts. You can see each player's cost for next year here.

Remember my first rule, never keep a player that would cost a 1st round choice unless it is Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley. I don't have either so we can eliminate Mark Teixeira (1), Corey Hart (1), David Ortiz (1).

2nd rule: eliminate all closers who would cost more than a 5th rounder. I should make an ammendment in that you should never keep a closer unless he's an absolute elite closer. That eliminates all of my closers in Wagner (7 and I should drop him anyways), Street (8), and Rodney (16).

3rd rule: Never keep a catcher, ever. This eliminates Laird (16) and Clement (16).

4th rule: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined. This eliminates Jeff Baker (16).

5th rule: Never keep a veteran on the decline. This eliminates Chipper (3), JD Drew (13), and Bradley (16).

So that leaves us with a list of:

Hitters:
B. Roberts (4)
Beltre (15)
Peralta (6)
Bruce (11)
Gomez (16)

Pitchers:
Baker (16)
F. Hernandez (4)
F. Liriano (6)
H. Kuroda (16)
N. Blackburn (16)
U. Jimenez (16)

So this leaves me with quite a little dilemma. For the hitters, there isn't too much of a decision as Gomez (16) still needs more seasoning clearly. Peralta (6) and Roberts (4) both have the production at that position but I could easily draft them in those rounds anyways. In these situations, that's basically like wasting a keeper selection. Beltre (15) is a good value there but overall his production isn't keeper worthy I think. So that leaves me with Bruce at round 11. I'm looking at not only next year but the year after when he's only going to be an 8th rounder for me.

Pitching wise is tough. Looking at the talent levels and the teams that they are on, of all the 16 rounders only Jimenez stands out. This eliminates Blackburn (16), Baker (16), and Kuroda (16). So it's really between F. Hernandez (4), Liriano (6), and Jimenez (16).

Looking at their career trends first with the help of Statcorner.com, I like to analyze 7 main components of a pitcher when deciding whether or not to keep them. K%, BB%, LD%, GB%, % pitches thrown for a called strike, and % pitches thrown for a swinging strike. I break down the strikes because I feel it helps to break down how "good" their pitches are with their movement and control.

This is what we have by each player:

Hernandez

K% BB% LD% GB% ClStr% SwStr%
23.48% 7.01% 13.3% 68.1% 19.6% 10%
21.57% 7.35% 16.9% 58.5% 18.3% 9%
20.45% 6.44% 17.7% 59.6% 18.9% 9.7%
20.97% 9.44% 19.3% 50.9% 17.1% 8.8%

Liriano

K% BB% LD% GB% ClStr% SwStr%
32.56% 8.14% 23.5% 47.1% 15.5% 17.6%
29.71% 7.43% 14.4% 58.1% 19.6% 15.1%
19.61% 9.62% 16.3% 41.3% 15.6% 10.3%

Jimenez

K% BB% LD% GB% ClStr% SwStr%
12% 12% 21.1% 47.4% 16.3% 8.7%
19.21% 10.45% 18.9% 45.3% 17.3% 9.2%
18.91% 11.68% 17.9% 53.8% 16.4% 8.2%

I have to admit, when I ran these numbers I was a little surprised. I knew that Hernandez wasn't exactly as dominating as he was his rookie season but he has declined in every single metric that I look at. Somewhat concerning is that his BB% suddenly spiked this year while his called strike % dropped. Also, someone who supposedly has absolutely dominating stuff, swinging strikes are getting harder and harder to come by, dropping by a full % point this year. This leads me to worry about his health. Control issues are always of a concern with elbow injuries and he has suffered from some in the past. Additionally, he has suffered from multiple lower leg injuries this year which would cause me to be concerned about kinetic chain issues. Lastly, I just don't think the Mariners will be good next year so the opportunity for Wins will be hard to come by.

We all know about Liriano's injury history and while that doesn't worry me a ton, what does worry me is what appears to be a sudden drop in K%. That's deceiving though because he was at such an unreal rate and also the first couple of starts this year. He's just starting to feel comfortable after coming back from Tommy John surgery. His called strikes are back where it was his rookie year while his swinging strikes are definitely down. I think this is definitely the result of slowly improving the movement on his pitches and should only improve next year. He also is throwing more FB and I think this is also the result of the movement on his pitches but also his pitch selection. He and the Twins have been hesistant to call for the slide piece because of the propensity to cause elbow problems. Now that he will be 18 months after the surgery come next year, most pitchers are back to normal at this point.

Jimenez's issues aren't health or velocity. It's always been about his control and thus the only question I have about him is whether or not I think his control will improve next year. His GB% spiked this year so I have to wonder if that is a little bit of an anomoly. After performing pretty well during the middle of the year, he has settled back into an inconsistent pattern. That is one thing I personally don't want out of a keeper is inconsistency. He does have the opportunity to improve as he has only thrown about 250 MLB IP but then again he may not. Most starting pitchers need about 500 IP before settling into their true pattern.

So it comes down to what I'm willing to give up based on my risk/reward value system. I think Felix Hernandez and his injury possibility is too much to give up for a 4th round pick. Offense would be much better suited to be picked there.

So Jimenez (16) or Liriano (6). I have to admit that Liriano is a little bit of my binkie but I also believe that Liriano is much more likely to produce at a keeper level than Jimenez. I usually take the best arm/stuff available but it doesn't always work out that way. I kept Clay Buchholz last year because he was described as having the best stuff and we all see how that worked for me. I really think that Liriano will continue to improve on his string of starts at the end of this year. I am not expecting a repeat of his rookie season where he was better than everyone alive, but I am expecting a much improved version of the 2nd half pitcher we're seeing. I expect 6-8K per game while going 6-7 IP each start. I also expect a WHIP around 1.10 with an ERA in the high 3's. Jimenez may give me the K's and the IP but he definitely will not give me that WHIP and ERA.

Summary: Bruce (11) and Liriano (6)