First Installment of Keeper Analysis

First off I'd like to apologize wholeheartedly to all of the readers. I've had to take care of personnel issues at work that were completely unforeseen and unfortunately forced me to be away from my desk for a while. When you're a supervisor and people resign, unfortunately you're forced to do extra work. Hopefully it is fully taken care of and I can provide the first installment of the series.

Our first installment covers someone who was new to the league this year as she took over for someone else. Because of this, she doesn't have any keepers from the previous year starting with a clean slate.

Looking at the what each player will cost here, let's start analyzing who I think she should keep. To start off with I eliminate all players who would cost a first round pick unless that player is Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley and even then only if you are drafting near the bottom. She does have Utley so he needs to stay in consideration but let's look at everyone else. This eliminates Webb and Granderson but leaves Utley in possible contention.

I next eliminate all closers that would cost more than a 5th round pick. This is when closers first start to go in our league so I would never choose someone who would cost me more than this. Also I would never choose a closer higher than the 8th round unless they are part of the top 3 elite of Rodriguez, Papelbon, and Nathan. These closers help in all categories other than Wins so they have the most overall value. This team does have Nathan but would cost a 3rd round pick so he is out of the question. None of the other closers meet any of the qualifications so this eliminates Nathan, Jenks, and Grabow.

My third rule is that I never keep a catcher, ever. Regardless of whether or not you have Russell Martin, catchers as a whole don't play everyday and often tire out down the stretch. They often only give you 120-140 games and that's simply not enough games for me. That eliminates Doumit and K. Suzuki.

My fourth rule is I never keep players whose role is not well defined. I call this the Joba Effect. You can eliminate DeRosa and Smardjiza.

My fifth rule is that I never keep veterans on the decline. Declining players can sometimes just fall off the table and if they don't meet your expectations they are usually well off. This is due to injuries and just lost production. This eliminates Lowell, Jeter, Anderson, Helton, Lowe, Arroyo, M. Young.

So right now we are looking at:

• J. Loney (9)
• E. Longoria (8)
• J. Werth (16)
• J. Hamilton (11)
• J. Upton (12)
• S. Victorino(5)
• D. Purcey (16)
• A. Sanchez (16)
• E. Jackson (16)
• J. Lester (16)

It's a little thin on the pitching side of things, so really the only one I see worth keeping is Lester. Everyone else either has made enough of a step up or just doesn't provide enough production to really be worth keeping. Lester I feel will make more strides next year in his control and could end up being a #2 pitcher for many fantasy teams. To be able to keep him in round 16 and know that you have a pitcher of that quality that late is invaluable.

Hitting wise, it's a little more of a toss up. Victorino is definitely not a 5th rounder so we can safely eliminate him. I would gladly take Longoria over Loney so we can eliminate Loney. I would take Hamilton over Werth or Justin Upton. I don't think either of those two have made the necessary adjustments to consistently produce at a keeper level.

So Hamilton vs. Longoria. Who do you keep? I think both will put up close to 35HR and 100 RBI next year. Both will likely score 100 runs and both have OBP in the .350-.360 range. (We count OBP instead of AVG in our league). So I think it comes down to simply who do you see a better long range outlook. I think that Longoria can only get better while Hamilton may take a small step backwards, especially if his team around him starts to crumble.

So with that, I say that Team # 1 (108 Stitches) should keep Lester at round 16 and Longoria at round 8.