Keeper Analysis Team #2 (Emporer's VIP Room)

We covered the first team (108 Stitches) here but it was pretty straightforward with very few legitimate keepers on her team. Our next team (Emporers VIP Club) has a couple interesting situations.

Following the first rule of never keeping anyone from the first round unless it was Chase Utley or Alex Rodriguez. Even though he might be tempted to keep Johan if he has a low first round pick, I don't think that he is worthy of a definite keeper pick. What hurts him is not the things he controls in Wins and Saves. Compared to a hitter who controls all 6 categories in a first round hitter, 4 categories in my opinion isn't enough. CC Sabathia is a name that could be interesting depending on where he ends up. If he ends up with a team that has a great bullpen, I might consider him with one of the last few picks in the first round but that's a big if. For now though, I'm not going to consider him. We can eliminate Santana, Sabathia, and M. Ramirez(just not a 1st rounder anymore).

The second rule I have is never keep catchers so that eliminates Molina (16).

Thirdly, I never keep veterans on the decline so this eliminates C.Guillen (3), J. Kent (11), M. Mora (16), Ichiro (4), Carpenter (16),B. Abreu (7), and Dave Bush (16).

Fourthly, I never keep closers if they cost more than a 5th round pick or unless they will help in all categories other than Wins. This eliminates Lidge and Capps. Ryan is somewhat interesting but according to the PFX data he has severely fatigued in the 2nd half. He has thrown balls at the second highest rate of his career (37.6%) and thrown the lowest percentage of swinging strikes for his career at 9.2%. A closer that doesn't strike people out enough and throws a lot of balls is a player who I do not want on my team. Also given his injury history, he's basically a time bomb waiting to go off on your fantasy team one way or the other. Morrow would give me serious pause if he was a closer but I believe the Mariners are going to use him as a starter. This gives me a little worry in that it may increase his risk of injury or breakdown. So I will elimate Ryan (9) and Morrow (16).

That leaves us with the following:

Hitters:
•Carlos Pena (5)
•Escobar (16)
•Davis(16)
•Hardy(15)
•Markakis (2)
•Braun (13)

Pitchers:
•J. Johnson (16)
•Sheets (6)
•Kershaw (16)
•Francis (12)
•Harrison (16)
•Ollie Perez (12)
•Maholm (16)
•Wellemeyer (16)

Going over the hitters obviously the only real option is Braun. Everyone else, while it'd be nice to have on the team, isn't keeper material at that price when you have Braun sitting there in round 13. This is his 2nd year being kept so going into 2010 he will be a 9th rounder and then a 4th for 2011. For some reason I don't think I'm going to get Braun anytime soon.

Pitching though I think we have a real dilemma. From a talent level alone, I think we can safely eliminate Francis (12), Ollie Perez (12), J. Johnson (16), and Maholm (16). Matt Harrison is too young and could be next years Clay Buccholz (bad sophmore year) so we'll eliminate Harrison (16). Wellemeyer will be 28 next season so most likely his growth phase is complete or at least relatively complete. Since both him and Kershaw are 16th rounders, I would rather have Kershaw at 16 than Wellemeyer. For that reason, we can eliminate Wellemeyer (16).

So we're left with Sheets (6) and Kershaw (16). Each player's Baseball Prospectus card is linked to their name to provide an excellent projection system. Unfortunately subscription is required, but in my opinion it is well worth it. Sheets is projected to perform very well and could be in the prime of his career. The problem with Sheets has always been his health. Even though this year has been one of his best, he's still battled some ailments throughout the season. Each year he gets older at this point in his career, the likelihood of injury increases.

On the other hand, Kershaw is the opposite in a way. His inexperience could lead to some problems for next year or the year after. He comes in with all the talent in the world but still needs to work on his control a little more. Kershaw throws a ball almost 40% of the time while the average major leaguer throws it about 32-35%. So far he has merely been average in his time here and still needs a lot of growth to reach his potential.

So it comes down to this: Do you want to take the risk on injury history or take the risk on inexperience. Personally I take the injury risk. That may be due to the Athletic Trainer in me but I look at skills. Once you are able to exhibit a skill at a certain level you basically always have that within you. Kershaw still hasn't proven that to me yet at the major league level. He's done it in the minors but it's different than in the show. Sheets' injury history is problematic to be sure but his skill set is amazing. According to Statcorner.com, Sheets has pitched at a level 37% higher than the average pitcher this year while Kershaw has been right at 100. I'd rather take the skill right now. Maybe in a year or two I'd keep Kershaw but I'd keep Sheets at 6 if I was his owner.

Summary: Sheets (6) and Braun (13)