Saturday, April 26, 2008

What's wrong with Liriano

I'll come out and say it right now, something is not right with Liriano. That may be categorized under the "so simple it's stupid" rule, but I think that everyone must try to imagine and realize what's going on here and what are the possibilities behind his continued struggles.

  1. The surgery just didn't "work". There is a surprising number of players who never return to their former levels after Tommy John surgery. I say surprising only because it's been ingrained in our heads from the collective media that TJ surgery is routine. Any ligament replacement surgery in an elite athlete during his/her career is anything but routine. From the estimates I've read, between 15-20% of athletes never return to their previous level after TJ surgery. Could Liriano be one of those? By all accounts, he is 100% healthy so I guess tie will tell if this is the truth or not.
  2. The surgery "worked" but he's not fully physically recovered. This situation involves having the MDs declare him healthy to pitch but he needs to take several games or several months before his arm and release points have the proper timing and strength. Consider this Liriano "playing himself into game-shape". This is a distinct possibility because he was not able to go deep in games, especially in spring training, due to his lack of command which is at an appalling 13BB in 10.3 IP. His WHIP is an astronomical 2.71. It's hard to imagine his numbers doing anything but going down.
  3. The surgery was a success, he is physically 100%, but mentally he's not recovered. This may be one of the worst things to happen. Many elite athletes like to see results and will associate anything (either positive or negative) as a direct cause of that result. I cannot provide a full complete insight into his psyche but hopefully I'll be able to help you understand his possible mental state right now.
    1. Imagine that you are at the top of your game as a mechanic, a computer programmer, a teacher, a physical therapist, or a musician. You depend on your elite skills in this area in order to not only survive but reach the pinnacle of your profession. People now rely on you everyday for results that very few can provide. Now tomorrow your skills will be taken away or severely hampered for 18 months. The mechanic can no longer hear the engine noise. The computer programmer is now given a keyboard in a different language and also the language code (html or whatever) no longer will exist. The physical therapist is no longer allowed to perform manual therapy and the musician's prime instrument has been destroyed due to health concerns.
    2. Imagine the frustration and difficulty in learning how to perform everything from scratch after 18 months. I know personally if I was not allowed to tape any body part for 18 months and then had to return to work and be expected to tape at the same high level, I would not be able to do it. It's not that I would "forget" how to tape. It's that I didn't have the feel and the rhythm for it that I have presently. All professions would be like that, including being a major league pitcher.



While it is "just a game" to many, to the rest of us it is a beautiful balance of athleticism, power, speed, visual acuity, mental preparation, focus, and determination that makes the "game" what it is.

Now that it has been confirmed that Liriano has been sent down to the minors to continue working on his rehab, it shall be seen which direction he will take. I currently have him in my main fantasy league and I will be holding on to him for a long time during the year. The risk of him on my bench eating up my final roster spot out of 29 with being able to start 3SP a day versus the reward of already having him and not worrying about waivers during mid-year, makes this decision a no-brainer. If he is available in your league right now, I would grab him immediately and stash him on your bench.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Miggy and Carlos

With the news that Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera switching position fantasy players everywhere are weighing their options regarding what to do and how to value these players. Some so called experts feel that this move does nothing for your fantasy team, I beg to differ and could not possibly disagree more. I am a fir believer in position flexibility and having this is key.

Miguel Cabrera is one of the top hitters in the game no matter what position her plays in the field. Having position flexibility is a key component of championship teas, expecially when the flexibility is in your best hitter. Cabrera now has or will have very soon eligibility at 1b. If you are one of those luck owners to get him in the first or second (I can't imagine how) round, then you have got to be very pleased to have someone who you can slot in at 1b, 3b, or Util. Imagine the production if Ortiz played several games at 1b and 3b in the beginning of the year and you now have Miggy C.

Unfortunately, Miggy has to move to a new position this year and not last year. That means that there is an increased chance of injury that Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus as explained about as well as anyone I have ever heard. You can read this more about this here. So, will Miggy "produce" more? Probably not. Are you going to reap the benefits of this move, absolutely. It's a question of degree.

Now onto Guillen. Gaining position flexibility is nice, but not at the increased risk of injury. Bill James described the defensive spectrum as the order from easiest to hardest as this:

Designated Hitter
First Base
Left Field
Right Field
Third Base
Center Field
Second Base
Shortstop
Catcher
Pitcher

Will Carroll however has shown at Baseball Prospectus that injuries tend to occur more frequently to those who switch positions and have an increased risk moving up the defensive spectrum to the harder positions.

So what do you do? Whats the right "price" for these guys? In my league I stacked up on offense early and switching out my 1b or Util for Cabrera is not necessarily a step up. Neither is Guillen, who wouldn't replace my 3b since I was able to sneak in a great one. However if you have Beltre at 3b or if you have a mid-level 1b, I would definitely examine this further.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Is it too early?

I like everyone enjoy the beginning of the season but find it maddening when I hear about how people are on pace for 175 HR or 40 Wins as a SP or even quote how someone is hitting .125 after 4 games. These numbers are irrelevant and are only there to grab your attention and give you little to no real analysis of how good the players actually is or likely to keep reproducing those stats.

It has been shown that you need at least 45 games before the statistics can be shown to have any sort of statistical significant pattern. In other words, anything up to about 45 games has to be viewed with reservation as it may be due to random chance. So what does this mean? Basically if you plan on picking a player up right now and keeping them for the long term you have to look at the numbers as well as other things such as track records, pure stuff, and/or the proper mental makeup. It has also been said that once you display a skill, you own it.

For this reason I think that one should look at Homer Bailey, Francisco Liriano, and Jacoby Ellsbury. These guys have had varying degrees of success lately but they have one thing in common. They are all undervalued.

Homer Bailey after his call-up last year basically tanked and was kept down in AAA this year. He has been nothing short of spectacular and I expect him up here very soon as his K/BB ratio is at a healthy 4.3.

Francisco Liriano has a different reason for being undervalued. Its because hes under performing. There's a reason why he was so dominating before and after he has Tommy John surgery, command is the last thing to return. He's now approaching 18 months after the surgery and this is typically the time where pitchers regain/remaster their command. Expect a couple more starts of 3-4BB nights but once he gets comfortable, enjoy the ride.

Finally, Jacoby Ellsbury is undervalued for another reason as well. He's viewed to have question marks about his playing time. It's clear that he's going to stay in the lineup at all times with an occasional day off. He's scoring runs at an amazing pace and once the whole lineup gets going could score more.

None of these guys are available in my league but I would venture to guess that at least Bailey is available in yours.

Important clarification

In order for everyone to understand where/how I base my opinions and advice on, I want to clarify my background.

I majored in Athletic Training and have worked as an Athletic Trainer for over 8 years now at the DI and DIII level. I have a great amount of experience in baseball and its injuries, so much so that my thesis was pitching injuries and rehabilitation. So as you can imagine, I always take a longer look at analysis that includes injuries and technological improvements in sports medicine. Two people in particular have shaped my interest in injury analysis, namely Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus and Rick Wilton from Baseball-Injury-Report.com. I will like to take their amazing coverage and analysis a little further with analysis of Pitch F/X data, disabled list information, and statistical analysis.

From a fantasy baseball perspective, I have been playing for over 10 years in extremely competitive leagues. The most competitive league I am in is a 12 team 6x6 league with OBP instead of Avg. and IP as the extra pitching category. We have a Games Started cap to make things a little more interesting as the year goes on and forces owners to start pitchers responsibly and not just picking up anyone who will be throwing in a given day.

With you caught up to date on what my background is, I hope that you continue to check back in the future to see how you can get a leg up on your competition.

My goals with this blog

First I apologize for not writing as many posts as I have hoped when I first began. My career as an athletic trainer for a DIII college in the Northeast means that no schedule is ever concrete. So after many 60 hour weeks in a row, on to address some of my main goals with my writing.

My main goal is to help provide information about this wonderful and beautiful game we call baseball and provide advice and insight into applying it to fantasy baseball. My understanding of the game, both as an ex-player and as a clinician dealing with baseball players everyday, allows me very unique perspective. I want to look at strategical aspects and technological advances that help everyone understand the game and especially it's injury/health implications. And finally and probably most importantly, I want to have fun.

With that I hope everyone enjoys the reading.