Friday, April 25, 2008

Miggy and Carlos

With the news that Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera switching position fantasy players everywhere are weighing their options regarding what to do and how to value these players. Some so called experts feel that this move does nothing for your fantasy team, I beg to differ and could not possibly disagree more. I am a fir believer in position flexibility and having this is key.

Miguel Cabrera is one of the top hitters in the game no matter what position her plays in the field. Having position flexibility is a key component of championship teas, expecially when the flexibility is in your best hitter. Cabrera now has or will have very soon eligibility at 1b. If you are one of those luck owners to get him in the first or second (I can't imagine how) round, then you have got to be very pleased to have someone who you can slot in at 1b, 3b, or Util. Imagine the production if Ortiz played several games at 1b and 3b in the beginning of the year and you now have Miggy C.

Unfortunately, Miggy has to move to a new position this year and not last year. That means that there is an increased chance of injury that Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus as explained about as well as anyone I have ever heard. You can read this more about this here. So, will Miggy "produce" more? Probably not. Are you going to reap the benefits of this move, absolutely. It's a question of degree.

Now onto Guillen. Gaining position flexibility is nice, but not at the increased risk of injury. Bill James described the defensive spectrum as the order from easiest to hardest as this:

Designated Hitter
First Base
Left Field
Right Field
Third Base
Center Field
Second Base
Shortstop
Catcher
Pitcher

Will Carroll however has shown at Baseball Prospectus that injuries tend to occur more frequently to those who switch positions and have an increased risk moving up the defensive spectrum to the harder positions.

So what do you do? Whats the right "price" for these guys? In my league I stacked up on offense early and switching out my 1b or Util for Cabrera is not necessarily a step up. Neither is Guillen, who wouldn't replace my 3b since I was able to sneak in a great one. However if you have Beltre at 3b or if you have a mid-level 1b, I would definitely examine this further.

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