Is it too early?

I like everyone enjoy the beginning of the season but find it maddening when I hear about how people are on pace for 175 HR or 40 Wins as a SP or even quote how someone is hitting .125 after 4 games. These numbers are irrelevant and are only there to grab your attention and give you little to no real analysis of how good the players actually is or likely to keep reproducing those stats.

It has been shown that you need at least 45 games before the statistics can be shown to have any sort of statistical significant pattern. In other words, anything up to about 45 games has to be viewed with reservation as it may be due to random chance. So what does this mean? Basically if you plan on picking a player up right now and keeping them for the long term you have to look at the numbers as well as other things such as track records, pure stuff, and/or the proper mental makeup. It has also been said that once you display a skill, you own it.

For this reason I think that one should look at Homer Bailey, Francisco Liriano, and Jacoby Ellsbury. These guys have had varying degrees of success lately but they have one thing in common. They are all undervalued.

Homer Bailey after his call-up last year basically tanked and was kept down in AAA this year. He has been nothing short of spectacular and I expect him up here very soon as his K/BB ratio is at a healthy 4.3.

Francisco Liriano has a different reason for being undervalued. Its because hes under performing. There's a reason why he was so dominating before and after he has Tommy John surgery, command is the last thing to return. He's now approaching 18 months after the surgery and this is typically the time where pitchers regain/remaster their command. Expect a couple more starts of 3-4BB nights but once he gets comfortable, enjoy the ride.

Finally, Jacoby Ellsbury is undervalued for another reason as well. He's viewed to have question marks about his playing time. It's clear that he's going to stay in the lineup at all times with an occasional day off. He's scoring runs at an amazing pace and once the whole lineup gets going could score more.

None of these guys are available in my league but I would venture to guess that at least Bailey is available in yours.