Keeper Analysis #5 - "I Suck"

You can see the first four here, here, here, and here. You can see what the value would cost here.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder, unless Utley and Rodriguez. I need to amend that slightly in this case because he could keep Pujols in the 1st round but I would only do it if he's drafting near the end of the first round. For now, I'm ruling Pujols out though because we don't know where he's going to draft and there is the risk of Pujols getting the surgery. This eliminates Pujols (1), Rios (1), and verlander (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a closer if he costs more than a 5th rounder. He does have Papelbon and it would only cost a 6th rounder so he looks like a very promising choice to keep.

Rule #3: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates C. Snyder (13) and Ivan Rodriguez (16).

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined. That maybe eliminates Blalock (16), D. Young (16) and Wigginton (16).

Rule # 5: Never keep a declining veteran. That eliminates Thome (7), Huff despite a career year (16), Cantu (16), Winn (16), Guzman (16), and Oswalt (4).

That leaves us with:

Hitters
C Kotchman (16)
H Kendrick (8)
R Zimmerman (3)
B Harris (16)
M Ordonez (4)
D Murphy (16)
E Dukes (16)
F Lewis (16)

Pitching:
J Blanton (12)
J Jurrjens (16)
C Ray (16)
J Papelbon (6)


For the pitching side, I think the clear cut winner is Papelbon at 6. In this league closers start to go at the very end of round 4 and early round 5 so we're not getting a huge advantage value-wise but knowing you have those 40 Saves in the bank is very comforting. Also the other options simply are not that good in my eyes.

For the hitters, this is difficult simply because it's so full of crap. Zimmerman at 3 is way to high so we can eliminate him. Ordonez looks to have taken a step back in terms of his power and in round 4 I'd want either a high power guy or someone who goes 20/20 for me. Ordonez doesn't run so he's eliminated. Fred Lewis is barely above average and doesn't project to be a superstar/keeper level so he is eliminated. Brenden Harris isn't anything special and may not be above average at all so he's eliminated. Dukes can't stay healthy and you also can't predict when he's going to explode so he's eliminated. Kotchman has been an average hitter for the last several years and out of your 1st baseman, especially your keeper 1st baseman, you want Ryan Howard/Pujols kind of numbers. Kotchman is now eliminated.

So that leaves us with David Murphy (16) and Howie Kendrick (8). Kendrick is appealing because he has the talent to win multiple batting titles. His problem is that he's having trouble staying healthy. Murphy's problem has been the slow development of his bat but he seems to have turned it around. Murphy will give you a 20/10 which is especially valuable and that's if he doesn't improve from this year to the next. Kendrick offers you high average with some speed. Which do you choose?

I chose David Murphy at 16. To me you never want to really gamble on someone in the single digits. There is a very good chance you could have Kendrick at 8 again if you really like him but there's s good possibility Murphy won't be around at 16. I think you can expect a similar year to Murphy's year right now with the potential to add a few on each of the counting stats.

Summary: Murphy (16) and Papelbon (6)