Keeper Analysis # 4 (I Spit Hot Fire)

Looks like my choice of Longoria over Hamilton touched off a few differences of opinion. To review, my previous analysis is here, here, and here.

Everyone's cost is here.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder. That eliminates Berkman (1), Ramirez (1), and Holliday (1).

Rule #2 Never keep a closer. That eliminates Marmol (16) and Rauch (16).

Rule #3 Never keep a catcher. That eliminates Napoli (13) and Varitek (16).

Rule #4 Never keep a player whose role is not known. That eliminates Lowrie (16) and Edwin Encarnacion (16).

Rule #5 Never keep a declining veteran. That eliminates Frank Thomas (16), Ted Lilly (12), Khalil Greene (11), Randy Wolf (16), and E.

Byrnes (2).

That leaves a pretty thin crop.

Hitters:

B. Phillips (8)

M. Aviles (16)

J. Bay (5)

P. Burrell (7)

X. Nady (16)

Pitchers:

AJ Burnett (8)

J. Beckett (3)

D. Rasner (16)

God I'm glad I don't own this team. Just my quick general opinion is that you'd keep Phillips at 8 and hope for a rebound. Aviles could end up being the best value at 16 but there's simply too much uncertainty in his future performance. Add in the fact that he plays for the Royals and he won't exactly be driving in a ton or scoring a lot.

Jason Bay at 5 is too high and you could easily draft him there anyways. Finally I just don't think that Nady is that great a hitter.

Let's let the numbers decide though.

To start off with I decided to do a quick OPS+ comparison for the hitters. B. Phillips averaged under 100 over the last 3 years, while Aviles has an OPS+ of 113 this year. Jason Bay has posted an average of over 130 while Burrell has averaged in the low 120s. Finally Nady is having a 130+ season but previously never got above 110. Immediately I see that keeping Phillips at 8 would be a mistake. I would much rather have Burrell or Bay rather than Phillips or Aviles. I would eliminate Aviles (16), Phillips (8), and Nady (16).

So now we have Bay (5) versus Burrell (7). Bay has made improved contact the last couple years while Burrell's is declining. Burrell's LD % is declining each of the last 3 years while Bay's have remained constant. wOBA+ is about the same for each of them. Bay has speed while Burrell doesn't. For me, that's the difference. I firmly believe that you should draft many players that can get you 15 SB rather than 1 guy with 60SB and nothing else. Bay at 5 is my keeper.

For pitchers I think its straightforward who you would keep if you absolutely had to keep one, AJ Burnett at 8. The problem is that you should probably keep Phillips there. I don't think you should keep Beckett at 3 as you could probably be able to redraft him there unless you have some psycho Red Sox fans. And Rasner is too much of an unknown in order to be kept. So guess what, for the first and probably the last I recommend not keeping any pitcher.

Summary: Bay (5) and no pitcher