Keeper Analysis #7 - Niko's Other Cousin

See all my previous analysis here and the grid here.

Rule #1: Never keep 1st rounders. This eliminates V. Martinez (1), Rollins (1), and Crawford (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates Navarro (16) and Molina (16).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This doesn't eliminate anyone.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and get the majority of playing time. This eliminates Hinske (16), Blake (16), Ethier (16), Scott (16), Church (16), Byrd (16), and Torres (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Hunter (4) and Gregg (13).

Leaves us with:

Hitters:
B.J. Upton (13)
A. Gordon (5)
A. Lind (16)
C.B. Young (11)

Pitchers:
Wainwright (9)
Looper (16)
Billingsley (13)
Floyd (16)
Nolasco (16)
Halladay (6)
B. Wilson (10)

Based on performance alone, I think we can only eliminate A. Gordon (5) off the bat. Everything thing else we'll have to evaluate so this will be a little more in depth than others. For the hitters, I have 2 Charts. Rather than list them out here, I put them in a google spreadsheet that everyone can see.

Looking in the first chart (Niko Event), there's nothing really that jumps out at me. Upton's numbers are down this year because of the shoulder injury and he is the only one above average in terms of wOBA+. The other thing I like about Upton is his LD% which fueled his BABIP.

The second chart (Nike hitter pitch) gives us much better information about whether or not a player is progressing as a hitter. Upton is the only one that is making significant progress in terms of plate discipline. The percentage of pitches taken that were strikes is down 7% from his rookie year while Lind's tkS% actually increased. C.B. Young's TkS% decreased as well but only by 2-3%. TkB% (pitches taken that were balls) appropriately increased for Upton and Young but decreased for Lind. To me this shows that Upton has made significant strides towards his plate discipline. Also, the overall # pitches per plate appearance is over 4 for Upton while a shade under 4 for Young and significantly under for Lind.

Because of this, I will eliminate Young (11) and Lind (16). I'm eliminating Young because he has a higher round value than Upton even though they will likely be similar.

For pitchers, there are a lot of options. Looking at tRA+ (similar to ERA+), we can eliminate Looper (16) and Floyd (16) as both are under 100 (an average pitcher). I think we can eliminate Wainwright (9) due to a combination of injuries and round. For the same reason, I think we can eliminate Halladay. Keeping him at round 6 would be handicapping yourself and buying into the notion that he will have just as good a year as this year. I can't see that happening as he declined in the previous 2 years. So I eliminate Halladay (6).

That leaves us with Nolasco (16), Billingsley (13), and Wilson (10). Of those, I think Billingsley clearly has the best numbers. He has the highest GB% of the three and the highest K% of the 3. He also gives up the lowest HR/BIA. Given those I normally would keep Billingsley (13) but you can't keep two players in the same round, so I choose to keep Nolasco.

Summary: Keep Upton (13) and Nolasco (16).