Monday, June 16, 2008

Chien-Ming Wang Injury Analysis

The New York Times is speculating that Wang possibly has a LisFranc Injury:

The Yankees called the injury a sprained right foot, and they will hope for the best until Wang has a magnetic resonance imaging test in New York on Monday. But the early signs are grim.

The injury is to the top of Wang’s foot, the same general area that reliever Brian Bruney injured when he tripped while covering first base in April. Bruney was found to have a Lisfranc injury and is expected to miss a minimum of three months.

Wang has symptoms of the same injury, including swelling and the inability to bear weight on the foot; he left Minute Maid Park on crutches, in a soft cast. Bruney’s injury was in the middle of the foot, and Wang’s is believed to be in the webbing of his toes, between his big toe and second toe.

I can tell you that this is not good if this is true. He needs that mid-foot to be perfectly stable in order to drive off of it as it is his push-off leg. From the several that I have seen in person, a mild case that didn't require crutches was not back for 8 weeks. Surgical intervention requires a much much longer period. Many orthopedic surgeons follow this general protocol (I have paraphrased, full source is here).

After surgical fixation , most orthopedists suggest that the foot be immobilized in a cast for eight to 12 weeks with minimal (toe-touch) weight-bearing. Noncasted, full weight-bearing usually is not allowed until the screw or similar fixation device is removed at eight to 12 weeks. For three months after cast removal, the patient should wear a protective shoe with a well-molded orthotic.


So if surgical fixation is needed, means 3 months before he is out of the cast, putting him at late August, early September before he is out of the cast. That doesn't include the rehab on his legs that he will have to do. While I'm absolutely positive that they will keep him arm in decent shape, until his foot is fully healed, he will not be cleared to do any throwing.

Fantasy summary: The minute that you hear that he needs surgery you can drop him. He'll be useless to your team, unless you are in a keeper league and had him at an unbelievable price for next year. If he doesn't need surgery, he'll likely be out at least 6-8 weeks.

UPDATE: It's now reported that Wang has suffered a Lis Franc injury and a partial tear of the Peroneal Longus Tendon. While this isn't the absolute worst case scenario, it complicates things a lot. The Peroneal longus wraps around the outside of the foot and travels underneath the foot through the arch of your foot. Point your Right foot down and to the right and you're using the tendon. It has secondary actions of stabilizing that transverse arch (mid-foot).

So Wang has suffered an injury to at least 2 out of the 3 stabilizers of that area. While it's being suggested 10-12 weeks, I think they'll have to be conservative with this as it is such an important joint.

Sunday, June 15, 2008

About Me

By now I'm sure that some people are wondering what authority does he have to comment on these topics. So I've decided to give a little background information to help lead some credence to my suggestions.

Professionally, I'm an Athletic Trainer who has been in the field for getting close to 10 years, working with a couple different college baseball teams for the majority of that time. My interest has always been injuries in baseball, so it comes as no surprise to those around me, that I did my thesis on Shoulder and Elbow injuries in baseball pitchers. Ever since then, I've tried to keep up on the new data that is constantly coming forward.

In my fantasy career, I've been playing for a little longer than that, almost 15 years now. I've been in an extremely competitive league with Troy and Lee (writers at RotoSavants) for the majority of that time as well. Lee, Troy, and I have won that last 5 titles I believe and remain competitive this season.

Lately, I've begun to focus on injury analysis for fantasy purposes and seeing what/how the Pitch F/X data can do for the fantasy baseball owner. I'm likely going to be self-publishing information in spring training focusing on these two areas to help the fantasy baseball owners going into the draft for the 2009 season.

Buy Low/Sell High June 15th (Vazquez, Redding)

Buy Low: Javier Vazquez

Key Stats:

Pitcher:

BABIP

K/BB

PTO%

QuickERA

ERA Dif

P/IP

Hitter:

BABIP

P/PA

BB/SO

GB/FB

HR/FB

2008

0.34

4.090

31.0%

3.55

0.352

16.13

2007

0.294

4.26

31.07%

3.30

0.439

15.98

2006

0.311

3.29

29.43%

3.79

1.051

16.36

Javier has had a bad run of luck. He’s getting people out with the same amount of ease that he did last year and he still has that elite level of control/command. His BABIP should return to normal levels which would help push his P/IP under 16 and have that at above average to elite levels as well. Overall, I think that he should turn it around fairly quickly and help you team since the offense is starting to pick up.

Vazquez, Javier SP CHW for Baker, Scott SP MIN

Vazquez, Javier SP CHW for Colon, Bartolo SP BOS

Vazquez, Javier SP CHW for Murphy, David RF TEX

Sell High: Tim Redding

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:

BABIP

K/BB

PTO%

QuickERA

ERA Dif

P/IP

Hitter:

BABIP

P/PA

BB/SO

GB/FB

HR/FB

2008

0.258

1.600

25.1%

5.16

-0.866

16.75

2007

0.285

1.24

24.80%

5.66

-2.023

16.61

2006

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

Tim on the other hand continues the trend of living off a good BABIP in order to have a winning record. His record of 6-3 will allow some owners to potentially overvalue him and let you swoop in to get something good in return. Having that low a PTO% and that high a P/IP will never let him go deep into games. This will eventually to really affect his record. Get something for him while you can.

Redding, Tim SP WAS for Maine, John SP NYM

Redding, Tim SP WAS for Wagner, Billy RP NYM

Redding, Tim SP WAS for Halladay, Roy SP TOR