Draft Order

A very exciting thing happened this week, the draft order was set for the league. It is a 12 team 6x6 snake draft that is very competitive but in different ways. There is the typical group at the top, then at the middle, and then a few at the bottom. But it's about even throughout, 4 teams in each group which makes it fun yet frustrating at the same time.

This year I have the 11th pick out of 12. I love this place. I will get 2 of the top 14 picks. In years past, anytime I have gotten a 1st round pick in the top 8, I have traded the draft pick down. My basis for valuation of that draft slot was in a somewhat unexpected but amazingly accurate place, The NFL Draft Slot valuation chart here:

http://www.thehogs.net/football101/draft-value-chart.html

Typically, I would move down 5 slots but gain a 4th or 5th rounder while sacrificing my 8th. But not this year, having the 11th slot allows for more concrete planning. You will know certain players will absolutely not be there. Plus you will not have to worry about your other targeted players being taken before your next pick.

In my league, offense dominates the first 2 rounds and part of the 3rd. Often Santana is the only one taken before the 25th pick. In this league, we are allowed to keep 1 hitter and 1 pitcher, sacrificing a round based on their position in years past.

This year I am keeping Sizemore in the 11th round and Clay Buchholz in the 16th round. So this gives me some serious leeway in what I do. I could take Rollins and Santana with my 1st two picks and give me solid footing in the SB and Runs categories along with K's and WHIP. However If I go with a traditional slugger, someone in the Miggy C. mold I can give myself absolutely great position in my offensive ranks without having to overpay for steals.

This is why if you have a chance to trade down to the end of the first round you should take it. Offer up a package like this:

you give up a 1st and 7th
You gain a 2nd and 4th

You'll be happy every time.

Off-Season must-do

Now that one of most interesting times of the year is here, namely the Hot Stove, it is time to begin thinking about the draft for next year. For those out there who think that they are smarter than everyone else, these winter months can be the best gift in the world and yet the biggest curse at the same time.
In order to prepare beyond the basics (getting accurate and precise projections, participating in mock drafts), the key to everything is knowing who your opponents will be. This is easy or those of you in leagues with friends, coworkers, or family, you know them already. However, if you are in a large league among strangers it's harder to do.
Therefore, I suggest the following in these cases.

1. Always do the opposite trend of what people are taking after the 4th round. For instance, if in round 5, you notice that people are beginning to make a run on closers. Don't take one unless you have 1 "must-have" closer that you've held in high regards forever. Instead, take a #2 OF or one of the top hitting catchers.
   
2. Unless you get a closer that also helps in K's and WHIP, wait until the later rounds. These non-elite closers simply do not last throughout the year and they also will hurt you in other categories. Therefore it is much better to get even a 2nd level hitter or SP than take a closer who will lose his job or end up hurt or demoted.
3. Look at the players that don't have the sexy 20/20, 30/30 tags. A player who has 15 HR and 30 steals will be a lot more valueable than a 20/20 guy. Even more undervalued is a 10-15 hr and 20 steal guy. Try to get a 3rd OF and at least 1 MI with these stats, while focusing on OPS on the other positions and you will be greatly relieved when you don't have to chase steals at the trading deadline.

There will be more information to follow in following posts. Hopefully you will find this information helpful and thoughtful.