Max Scherzer breakdown
Sorry for the delay but since yesterday was Mother's Day, I figured people would understand. As promised here is the breakdown of Max.
Scherzer has been one of those pitchers who sort of came out of nowhere but to those who really study the minor leagues, knew this kid would be good. He sports a 98+MPH fastball, a fairly good slider, and a change up that he doesn't necessarily throw often but can be devastating. So to those who have been following minor league pitching, this kid has quite an arsenal.
But what do we do. Do we stash him on our bench for the year in keeper leagues? Do we cut him once he gets sent back down? Do we cut him now? Other than the pitch F/X data to see if he is healthy (which he is according to my views), I look at 3 main statistics.
The first thing that I look at is the quick and dirty K/BB ratio. This ratio isn't always the best but it provides a useful quick and dirty test as to good pitchers with excellent command. A ratio of 3 or higher is deemed excellent. His k/bb ratio (aka command) is 6.00 (18k/3bb). Unbelievable.
Next I look at BABIP. His BABIP is .382, a very very high number that should come down to a normal .290. It is said that if BABIP is different by 3% either way it will effect his ERA in that way. Max's difference is 9.2%. So I know his ERA is effected by this BABIP and will come down. Also by using a "normal" BABIP, he gives up 2 less hits which brings down his WHIP to a very nice 1.01 a difference of 0.104.
Lastly I look at QuickERA which I explained earlier. QuickERA stabilizes much faster due to it's reliance on ratios and not hard numbers. Max's QuickERA is 2.70 a difference of 0.437.
So I look at his and figure out that he has been quite unlucky despite the fact that he has excellent command. His unbelievable command is something that can't really be taught. Pitchers of this ability mainly have that feel of pitching. According to Baseball-reference.com only 41 pitchers in the history of the game has ended the year with a k/bb above 6:
Minimum of 3.1 PA/G, 1.0 IP/G, and 0.1 decision/G for single-season leaderboards generally needed for rate statistics.
| 1. | Bret Saberhagen (30) | 11.000 | 1994 | R |
| 2. | Jim Whitney (26) | 10.000 | 1884 | R |
| 3. | Jim Whitney (25) | 9.860 | 1883 | R |
| 4. | Curt Schilling (35) | 9.580 | 2002 | R |
| 5. | George Bradley (27) | 9.000 | 1880 | R |
| 6. | Pedro Martinez (28) | 8.880 | 2000 | R |
| 7. | Greg Maddux (31) | 8.850 | 1997 | R |
| 8. | Henry Boyle (23) | 8.800 | 1884 | R |
| 9. | Pedro Martinez (27) | 8.460 | 1999 | R |
| 10. | Ben Sheets (25) | 8.250 | 2004 | R |
| 11. | James Burke? () | 8.230 | 1884 | |
| 12. | Charlie Sweeney (21) | 8.020 | 1884 | R |
| 13. | Tommy Bond (28) | 7.940 | 1884 | R |
| 14. | Carlos Silva (26) | 7.890 | 2005 | R |
| 15. | Greg Maddux (29) | 7.870 | 1995 | R |
| 16. | Curt Schilling (34) | 7.510 | 2001 | R |
| 17. | George Bradley (31) | 7.300 | 1884 | R |
| 18. | Fergie Jenkins+ (28) | 7.110 | 1971 | R |
| 19. | Cy Young+ (38) | 7.000 | 1905 | R |
| 20. | Jack Lynch (27) | 6.950 | 1884 | R |
| Rank | Player (age that year) | SO to Walk | Year | Throws |
| Bobby Mathews (30) | 6.950 | 1882 | R | |
| 22. | Cy Young+ (37) | 6.900 | 1904 | R |
| 23. | Guy Hecker (28) | 6.880 | 1884 | R |
| 24. | Tommy Bond (20) | 6.770 | 1876 | R |
| 25. | Hugh Daily (36) | 6.710 | 1884 | R |
| 26. | John Murphy? () | 6.640 | 1884 | |
| John Ward+ (19) | 6.640 | 1879 | R | |
| 28. | Guy Hecker (26) | 6.600 | 1882 | R |
| 29. | Randy Johnson* (40) | 6.590 | 2004 | L |
| 30. | Bobby Mathews (31) | 6.550 | 1883 | R |
| 31. | Curt Schilling (39) | 6.540 | 2006 | R |
| 32. | Tommy Bond (23) | 6.460 | 1879 | R |
| 33. | Greg Maddux (35) | 6.410 | 2001 | R |
| 34. | Walter Johnson+ (25) | 6.390 | 1913 | R |
| 35. | Roy Halladay (26) | 6.380 | 2003 | R |
| 36. | Peek-A-Boo Veach? (22) | 6.200 | 1884 | |
| 37. | Juan Marichal+ (28) | 6.170 | 1966 | R |
| Christy Mathewson+ (27) | 6.170 | 1908 | R | |
| 39. | Dennis Eckersley+ (30) | 6.160 | 1985 | R |
| 40. | Greg Maddux (30) | 6.140 | 1996 | R |
| Rank | Player (age that year) | SO to Walk | Year | Throws |
| 41. | Curt Schilling (36) | 6.060 | 2003 | R |
| 42. | Pedro Martinez (30) | 5.980 | 2002 | R |
So while I'm not saying that he's going to end the year equal to at least Curt Schilling or Pedro, I am saying that the majority of these pitchers who were able to do this after 1900 are likely HOF members. HOF players aren't taught for the most part, they're just born to play the game.
(I know maybe a little exaggeration, but skills such as his don't come along often enough. While he likely won't end up with a command of 6 this year, having him start this way is exciting.)
Long story short, I was able to pick him up on my league and I will be holding on to him, likely as my keeper. His command is the thing that I like the most along with stuff. When I look at his pitch F/X, his release point is repeatable and his pitching mechanics appear fine to me.
There is talk though that he may be converted to a reliever similar to Jonathan Papelbon. Depending on your league, you may want to trade Max his value is probably at it's highest.
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