Wednesday, May 14, 2008

What is wrong with Jeff Francis?

My fantasy pitching this week and a half has been horrendous. Im talking 15 GS with a WHIP of 1.92 and and ERA north of 7 horrendous. Leading the parade has been Jeff Francis. I picked him up in the middle rounds, expecting a solid #3 starter on my team. Instead, he's been taking out back and beaten like a red-headed step child almost every time he goes to the mound.

W   L   GS  IP  H  ER HR  BB   SO  BFP ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP

0   4   8  47.3 58 33 9   19   31 216 6.27  4.55   73   1.627

You would think that I would have learned my lesson after the first couple times out but this was the guy who went 17-9 with an ERA+ of 114 last year. So what the hell is so different? First his release points, courtesy of Josh Kalk at baseball.bornbybits.com.



As a Francis owner this does not make me happy at all. It looks like he's been searching for his release point the whole season. Could this be due to injury? I like to look at velocity on his fastballs to see if there might be something going on.

2007 Pitch Averages
TypeMovement in x (in.)Movement in z (in.)Initial Speed (MPH)Number ThrownPercent
Fastball7.998.2689.0169557.49
Curve-4-2.1573.1916913.98
Change4.915.2381.1734528.54


2008 Pitch Averages
TypeMovement in x (in.)Movement in z (in.)Initial Speed (MPH)Number ThrownPercent
Fastball8.628.0188.0441561.03
Curve-4.34-2.0971.887811.47
Slider3.546.2982.6446.47
Change6.654.8980.5214120.74
Splitter6.956.583.310.15
Cutter1.569.0384.1310.15


Looking at his fastball MPH he's only lost 1MPH so that's not significant enough to definitively say he's injured or healthy. Notice though that he's added 3 pitches to his repertoire, at least according to Gameday. It looks like he's thrown 44 sliders that he didn't throw last year according to Gameday but I don't think he throws one.

I decided to look at pitches that resulted in hits next to see if it was dumb luck or if he is just pitching horribly.


typeSpeed (MPH)Break x (inches)Break z (inches)1B
2b
3b
HR
FB88.748.558.5231617
CB74.49-4.74-4.445300
CH81.35.25.9416301

Almost all of his Home Runs Allowed have been on his fastball as you can see in the chart and the table above. I also noticed that the difference between his change-up and his fastball is down to 7MPH. Is his change-up or fastball moving as it did last year? First the pitch location on hits allowed this year:

It appears that all of his HRA are ones that were up in the zone and from the previous tables we know that's his fastball. Also the vast majority of hits given up are on the right hand (the horizontal positive side) of the zone.

Overall movement this year:

Next the movement from last year:


Much much different. He has less control of his pitches. Less touch and feel on them too. Normally the pitches should be grouped in pretty distinct ovals. Francis on the other hand doesn't have any real ovals to work with. And this last chart (which Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus) pointed out to me is key. Basically his change-up and his fastball move the same, so the only difference is the slight (less than 7MPH) speed difference. No wonder hitters are doing will against him.

Summary: Something is vastly different with Francis from last year to this year. He's searching for his release point and has lost a little velocity even if it is a very small amount. Batters appear to seeing his fastball better and the results have been a horror show most of the time. Until he shows that he can consistently get people out with his fastball by locating it, he will continue to struggle. My gut feeling says that he is either dealing with the results of the extended year he had last year with the World Series orhe is dealing with an injury/fatigue that we don't know about or even that he may not even fully know yet.

At this point, if you have a very deep league you could stash him on the end of your bench but I would also look at possible replacements.

0 comments: