Thursday, July 31, 2008

So Much goin on, so little time

After looking over the numbers this morning, there isn't much sticking out to me as to being able to buy low or sell high at this point. Add that to the Manny craziness and I don't think I'm going to have a high low recommendation. i do however have some strategy.

This is the point in the year that you know what kind of team you have. For instance, because of two major injuries (Ortiz and Posada) and one pitcher being sent down and never looked at again (Liriano) I'm mired in the limbo of 6th-10th place. The league leader coincidently is Troy from RotoSavants.com who has nearly twice as many points. While there is a chance I could move up to third, I highly doubt it will happen.

So that means you're either a buyer for this year or a seller this year in order to set yourself up for next year in keeper leagues. Sell your high priced players for some one who could end up helping you next year. Last year I traded Berkman and Andruw Jones for Sizemore and Lester. (stupidly I kept Clay Buchholz instead of Lester but that's another story).

So who should you target for next year?

C
2B
SS
OF

We all know that there is a lack of depth in hitting talent up the middle. Most likely the teams in contention right now will have the top hitting catchers and/or 2b. But for SS you could try to get Peralta who is quietly having a very good season at the plate. Another player is Stephen Drew who is now over the 1000AB threshold in the MLB, has raised his BA close to 30 points in July and has seemed to have turned the corner.

In the OF, surprisingly there really isn't that much talent that you would target for next year. You could go after youngsters like Jay Bruce or Matt Kemp in the multi-year leagues as the name players are either overpriced right now or on the first place teams.

If you do decide to trade for SP, I have one rule of thumb. Never trade for guys who seem to be taking the next step. There are too many instances of guys who should take the step that haven't. And there are too many surprises like Dempster, Duchscherer, and Cliff Lee for you to overpay for next year's pitching keeper.

I'm working on a great Pitch FX project which I hope will really be able to show the differences across a couple pitchers. It should be up later on tonight.

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