Examining what separates great pitchers from above average or average ones using Pitch FX

So this was planned for yesterday afternoon, but of course my computer started having problems so I couldn't upload it.

The question comes up often, at least in my mind, what makes an elite pitcher so good. Why is it that year in and year out, he can consistently be that much better than the other pitchers in the league? So of course, that’s what I set out to prove and it’s why I haven’t had a full update in a couple of days.

To start off, I think I need to explain how I broke down the pitchers into groups. I chose 3 groups (Elite, Above Average, and Average) and focused only on the #1 pitcher on each team according to CBS Sportsline. From here on out when I say an elite, above average, or average anything, it is not to be compared pitch to pitch. Those descriptions are for the groups that they belong to. I chose only right handed pitchers in order to simplify the graphs and also because some people have noted that many left handed pitchers have different mechanics than right handed pitchers. Thus, in order to make this as close to a uniform sample as possible, I chose only the right handed pitchers. I chose the groups based on the research by Derek Jacques using ERA, IP, W, L, BB, K as a basis for what category that pitcher is in.

Pitch Type	Category	End speed
CH	Above Average	76.826
	Average	76.362
	Elite	77.378
CU	Above Average	67.116
	Average	70.121
	Elite	72.487
FA	Above Average	82.761
	Average	83.652
	Elite	85.349
FC	Above Average	80.897
	Average	81.827
	Elite	81.627
FF	Above Average	80.343
	Average	82.5
	Elite	83.626
FS	Above Average	81.067
	Average	74.5
	Elite	78.182
SI	Above Average	84.797
	Average	79.417
	Elite	83.08
SL	Above Average	76.086
	Average	78.027
	Elite	77.772

You can see above that an elite fastball is at least 2 MPH faster than the other groups giving them a definitive advantage when compared to others. Interestingly, the average has a higher end fastball speed than the above average ones. The key though is comparing this speed to the end speed of the off-speed/breaking pitches. The difference between an average changeup and his fastball is about 6 MPH while an elite pitcher’s is almost 8 MPH. For a major league hitter this is a huge difference, especially when located well. The same differences show up again with the slider vs fastball comparison. An elite difference is about 8 MPH, an above average difference is 6 MPH, and an average pitcher difference is only 5 MPH. To give you an example of how much of a difference this is to MLB hitters, an elite fastball reaches the plate in about .48 seconds while an average one reaches it in .49 seconds. For every hundredth of a second, it equals 6 inches less distance the elite pitcher gives to a hitter. This hundredth of a second is the equivalent of 6 extra inches to recognize the pitch.

The difference from changeup to fastball is greater. An elite pitcher has about a 3.2 foot advantage over the hitter with the speed difference. An average pitcher only has a 2.7 foot advantage. That is quite a difference. Imagine the difference of seeing the ball all the way to the bat compared to blinking your eyes at the end while trying to hit the ball.

There are two other things that really make an elite pitcher as good as he is, controlling his pitches and getting good movement on them. The next 3 graphs give different views, one from the side, one from top and one from the catcher’s point of view. They are broken down by pitch with each category of pitcher color coded. We’ll review each of the perspectives separately. We will also at times be referring to the speed chart above.

Catcher Perspective

Starting off with the catcher’s perspective, the movement on the fastballs of the elite group and the above average group are basically the same. Remember the difference in speed though, close to 2.6 MPH. The average pitching group appears to be slightly more vertical than the other 2 groups even though it is skewed over to the right. The curveball of the elite and above average group again, match up almost exactly. The average curveball approximates this as well. The curveball speeds are also somewhat telling but slightly intriguing as well. The average group curveball and the elite group curveball have basically the same speed difference (13 MPH) from the fastball, while the above average group is slightly slower (15 MPH).

Most of the other pitches also approximate each other but there are two that really stand out. The changeup, specifically, differs greatly from each other. The elite group starts out matching the above average trajectory, but it continues to move towards the outside part of the plate. The above average and average group though seems to focus their changeups on the inside part of the plate. The average trajectory of the changeup is much more vertical than the other ones. The other quite difference pitch is the FF, which you can see has quite a bit more movement on it than the other groups.

Top View

This view is much better at viewing the side to side motion of the groups. All of the initial release points are at the top of the charts, so a right handed batter would be standing on the left hand side of the chart.

The elite group has much more movement horizontally than others especially on his fastball and changeup. The movement of an elite FF has really late break in the last 20 or so feet. All of the average pitches exhibits less horizontal movement from this view.

Side View

This will help show the amount of drop in a pitch from each group. Many scouts are much more concerned with the vertical movement of a pitch than horizontal movement. There are several pitches here which really show the differences between the groups. The change-up, sinker, and slider all exhibit more drop than their counterparts, especially the slider and the sinker.

Pitcher perspective

In this 3-D perspective, we can see the other perspectives coming together. We can see just how much more movement the elite pitchers have over the other 2 groups. Those pitches mentioned above really get brought to our attention by how far they cross over.

Summary

I think this helps to explain some of the differences between elite pitchers and others. Speed to a large degree cannot be taught. Movement to a certain degree cannot be taught either. To me, when evaluating players, if a pitcher exhibits these characteristics noted above consistently, they are much more likely to be an elite pitcher than those who don’t.