Thursday, August 7, 2008

Trading deadline

I know that many leagues around there has a trading deadline which of course limits what you can do for the rest of the year. Depending on your league, you have a set number of keepers for next year, that you can carry over for a certain price. My main league for instance we can keep 1 hitter and 1 pitcher each year. The price we give up is dependent on when that player was drafted this year and how many years you have kept that player. The first year the player is kept you will have to sacrifice a pick 2 rounds higher and for every year after that you add an additional round. For instance, I have Jay Bruce and he was drafted in round 13 last year, so I will sacrifice an 11th round pick next year, 8th round year after that, 4th, 1st.

There are two general strategies for keepers, keeping those that will help you next year versus those players that will help you in year 3 or more. If you are going for next year, you have to keep the best hitter available at a round lower than what he normally goes for. For instance, if Josh Hamilton amazingly slid to round 12 (like he did in ours) you keep him even if you have AROD. That's where the value comes into play. I would not keep Russell Martin or McCann for example in round 3 or round 4 though because that's where you could pick them up anyways. I know Martin or McCann is the best at the position but if you like him that much you can draft him in round 3 again.

If you are going for years 3+ of owning a player, you need to look at players who are that many years away focusing on how raw a player is. Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Joey Votto are all examples. There is inherent risk in this as hitters may not end up any better than they are now. Bruce likely won't end up like this but Adam Jones, Joey Votto, Justin Upton are all examples of this. When focusing on these players you have to look at what will he cost at his peak or year before peak. Jay Bruce's true peak will likely begin in 2 years and he will cost me an 8th rounder. Once he costs me a 1st rounder, I will most likely not keep him.

Here is a list of rookies/young hitters who I think could be kept and who would be a couple years away from their peak. Those guys who are going to help you next year are all well known (Bruce) and cost you too much to get them. These guys below will help you somewhat next year but in the later years will really pay off.

Couple of years away
Joey Votto
Justin Upton
Stephen Drew
Adam Jones
Adam Lind
Jacoby Ellsbury
Matt Kemp
Carlos Gomez
Chase Headley
Ian Stewart
James Loney
Jeff Clement
Travis Snider

Tomorrow I will have a list of pitchers to focus on.

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