Thursday, October 2, 2008

Buy Low/ Sell High Summary

Well here it is finally playoff time and I wanted to look at how I did at the end of the year. I created a spreadsheet here for everyone to see and compare different scenarios.

Looking at everything, I did win basically every category that the player can control. FIP - ERA for pitchers have a swing of close to 4 tenths of a point in ERA. The WHIP is better by close to .06 and more than 1K/9 better in the buy group. My pitchers also gave up less HR and had a higher average gamescore.

The hitters have a slightly worse HR/AB but everything else is better even nominally so.

Looking back on things, I realized I made three mistakes in my evaluations even though I have come out on top.

  • The superstars that I recommended had it in them to do that for that period of time. For instance, Berkman and Uggla with their power for the month or so after I suggested them. Yes their HRs did decrease over the second half, especially near the end.
  • I focused too much on benchmarks focusing on a batters eye (HR/FB to some extent, P/PA, and BB/SO) instead of focusing on metrics that focus on the skill of swinging the bat/throwing the ball and compare that to the league average (expected BABIP to BABIP, EQA, k%, LD/GB/FB rates, #"No doubt" and "Plenty" HR according to
  • I put too much emphasis on general trend (downward trending of Gb/FB for instance) over the years instead of looking at the other metrics showing that he's turned the corner (such as a concurrent increase in K%).
I'm going to look long and hard at this, because even though I was successful, it wasn't nearly to the extent that I wanted. In the off-season there are going to be many different articles and discussions with the other authors from RotoSavants.


Singnals3 said...

It wasn't nearly to the extent that I want....

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