Keeper Analysis #11 - The Great Giambino Mustache Ride

See all of the previous analysis here and the grid here. This one will be somewhat special as it is the guy who just won the league (Troy).

Rule #1 : Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Howard (1), Dunn (1), and Beltran (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates McCann (4) and Iannetta (16).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This eliminates noone.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is undefined and not going to get majority of playing time. This eliminates Masterson (16) and Broxton (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a veteran player in decline. This eliminates Maddux (16), Giambi (16), and Glaus (16).

That leaves us with:
Figgins (13)
Iwamura (16)
S. Drew (16)
McClouth (16)
Quentin (16)
Reynolds (16)

Kuo (16)
Volquez (16)
Guthrie (16)
Lackey (2)
Slowey (16)
Cain (6)
Soria (9)

I think right on talent alone we can eliminate Figgins (13), Iwamura (16), and Reynolds (16). Looking at the remainder of the group, all of them are 16th rounders. S. Drew (16) has an OPS+ of 111, McLouth (16) has an 124, and Quentin has an 149. Drew and McLouth both have seen about 1300 AB while Quentin has seen about 800ish but McLouth is the oldest of them at 26.

All of their HR/BIA isn't consistent and all of their BABIP are within the normal limits and fairly consistent with their past. Quentin has the highest GB% at 41.4%, Drew and McLouth have identical 34.2% GB%. McLouth has the best P/PA at 4.00 (and has increased each year), while Drew and Quentin have both decreased slightly from last year at 3.80 and 3.62.

In terms of contact, Quentin is slightly below average at 79%, Drew is average at 82%, and McLouth is the best at 88%. Quentin however has some question marks about the health of the wrist so that needs to be considered.

Based on this I choose McLouth. He has progressed the most, has the best GB%, highest P/PA, seen the most AB, and has an ever improving OPS+. While I no longer have questions about Quentins shoulder, I do have serious doubts about his wrist and the effect it will have on his power next year. Drew seems to be average or less in this group.

For the pitchers, I think we can eliminate Lackey (2), Cain (6), Soria (9), and Kuo (16) as either costing too high or the talent isn't on par with everyone else. So we're left with Volquez, Guthrie, and Slowey, all 16th rounders.

• To start with, Volquez has an ERA+ of 140, Guthrie has a 122, and Slowey owns a 105. Neutralized according to baseball-reference.com shows Volquez to have a 2.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.259. Guthrie has a 3.23 ERA and a 1.152 WHIP while Slowey owns a 3.75 ERA and a 1.112 WHIP.

• Volquez also owns the best in play % where the lower is better and his is at 15.7% and has improved each of the last 3 years. Guthrie and Slowey are both around 20% and thus they are more reliant on their defense and luck.

• Volquez also has the highest GB % at 46% over Guthrie and Slowey's at 43% and 34% respectively. Everyone's BABIP is in line with their norms. K% also goes to Volquez at 23% where the norm is 16%. Guthrie is at 15% and Slowey is at 18%.

• BB% goes to Slowey at 3.68% where the norm is 8%. Guthrie is at 7% while Volquez is 11%.

Finally directly from Statcorner.com

SwStr% (SP: 7.8%, RP: 9.5%)The percentage of pitches thrown that are swung on and missed. These have a direct linear relationship with a pitcher's strikeout rate and are often a good leading variable for how a pitcher will perform in the future.

• Volquez is at 10.9% and has increased each of the last 3 years. Guthrie is at 7.6% and Slowey is at 8.7%

With all that, I would recommend Volquez at 16. The one concern everyone has is his walks. I strongly think that his other categories more than make up for the increased walks, especially when the BABIP is within normal limits. If he was in Dice-K mode and walking everyone in sight but not giving up runs, then I'd be worried. Guthrie I think is in the middle of the road and Slowey may end up being a Maddux type in the future but right now you have to go with Volquez who is above many of the metrics I see.

Summary: I recommend keeping McLouth (16) and Volquez (15).