Thursday, October 2, 2008

Buy Low/ Sell High Summary

Well here it is finally playoff time and I wanted to look at how I did at the end of the year. I created a spreadsheet here for everyone to see and compare different scenarios.

Looking at everything, I did win basically every category that the player can control. FIP - ERA for pitchers have a swing of close to 4 tenths of a point in ERA. The WHIP is better by close to .06 and more than 1K/9 better in the buy group. My pitchers also gave up less HR and had a higher average gamescore.

The hitters have a slightly worse HR/AB but everything else is better even nominally so.

Looking back on things, I realized I made three mistakes in my evaluations even though I have come out on top.

  • The superstars that I recommended had it in them to do that for that period of time. For instance, Berkman and Uggla with their power for the month or so after I suggested them. Yes their HRs did decrease over the second half, especially near the end.
  • I focused too much on benchmarks focusing on a batters eye (HR/FB to some extent, P/PA, and BB/SO) instead of focusing on metrics that focus on the skill of swinging the bat/throwing the ball and compare that to the league average (expected BABIP to BABIP, EQA, k%, LD/GB/FB rates, #"No doubt" and "Plenty" HR according to Hittrackeronline.com).
  • I put too much emphasis on general trend (downward trending of Gb/FB for instance) over the years instead of looking at the other metrics showing that he's turned the corner (such as a concurrent increase in K%).
I'm going to look long and hard at this, because even though I was successful, it wasn't nearly to the extent that I wanted. In the off-season there are going to be many different articles and discussions with the other authors from RotoSavants.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Keeper Analysis #11 - The Great Giambino Mustache Ride

See all of the previous analysis here and the grid here. This one will be somewhat special as it is the guy who just won the league (Troy).

Rule #1 : Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Howard (1), Dunn (1), and Beltran (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates McCann (4) and Iannetta (16).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This eliminates noone.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is undefined and not going to get majority of playing time. This eliminates Masterson (16) and Broxton (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a veteran player in decline. This eliminates Maddux (16), Giambi (16), and Glaus (16).

That leaves us with:
Figgins (13)
Iwamura (16)
S. Drew (16)
McClouth (16)
Quentin (16)
Reynolds (16)

Kuo (16)
Volquez (16)
Guthrie (16)
Lackey (2)
Slowey (16)
Cain (6)
Soria (9)

I think right on talent alone we can eliminate Figgins (13), Iwamura (16), and Reynolds (16). Looking at the remainder of the group, all of them are 16th rounders. S. Drew (16) has an OPS+ of 111, McLouth (16) has an 124, and Quentin has an 149. Drew and McLouth both have seen about 1300 AB while Quentin has seen about 800ish but McLouth is the oldest of them at 26.

All of their HR/BIA isn't consistent and all of their BABIP are within the normal limits and fairly consistent with their past. Quentin has the highest GB% at 41.4%, Drew and McLouth have identical 34.2% GB%. McLouth has the best P/PA at 4.00 (and has increased each year), while Drew and Quentin have both decreased slightly from last year at 3.80 and 3.62.

In terms of contact, Quentin is slightly below average at 79%, Drew is average at 82%, and McLouth is the best at 88%. Quentin however has some question marks about the health of the wrist so that needs to be considered.

Based on this I choose McLouth. He has progressed the most, has the best GB%, highest P/PA, seen the most AB, and has an ever improving OPS+. While I no longer have questions about Quentins shoulder, I do have serious doubts about his wrist and the effect it will have on his power next year. Drew seems to be average or less in this group.

For the pitchers, I think we can eliminate Lackey (2), Cain (6), Soria (9), and Kuo (16) as either costing too high or the talent isn't on par with everyone else. So we're left with Volquez, Guthrie, and Slowey, all 16th rounders.

  • To start with, Volquez has an ERA+ of 140, Guthrie has a 122, and Slowey owns a 105. Neutralized according to baseball-reference.com shows Volquez to have a 2.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.259. Guthrie has a 3.23 ERA and a 1.152 WHIP while Slowey owns a 3.75 ERA and a 1.112 WHIP.
  • Volquez also owns the best in play % where the lower is better and his is at 15.7% and has improved each of the last 3 years. Guthrie and Slowey are both around 20% and thus they are more reliant on their defense and luck.
  • Volquez also has the highest GB % at 46% over Guthrie and Slowey's at 43% and 34% respectively. Everyone's BABIP is in line with their norms. K% also goes to Volquez at 23% where the norm is 16%. Guthrie is at 15% and Slowey is at 18%.
  • BB% goes to Slowey at 3.68% where the norm is 8%. Guthrie is at 7% while Volquez is 11%.
Finally directly from Statcorner.com
SwStr% (SP: 7.8%, RP: 9.5%)The percentage of pitches thrown that are swung on and missed. These have a direct linear relationship with a pitcher's strikeout rate and are often a good leading variable for how a pitcher will perform in the future.
  • Volquez is at 10.9% and has increased each of the last 3 years. Guthrie is at 7.6% and Slowey is at 8.7%
With all that, I would recommend Volquez at 16. The one concern everyone has is his walks. I strongly think that his other categories more than make up for the increased walks, especially when the BABIP is within normal limits. If he was in Dice-K mode and walking everyone in sight but not giving up runs, then I'd be worried. Guthrie I think is in the middle of the road and Slowey may end up being a Maddux type in the future but right now you have to go with Volquez who is above many of the metrics I see.

Summary: I recommend keeping McLouth (16) and Volquez (15).

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Keeper Analysis #10 - The Franchise

See all previous analysis here and see the grid here.

Even though I already know who he's going to keep, I'm going to run through everything as usual.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder. That eliminates Miguel Cabrera (1), Jose Reyes (1), and Vlad (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. That eliminates Soto (9).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. That eliminates Rodriguez (5). Especially now that he set the record and will be overpriced next year.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined and guaranteed playing time. That eliminates Weeks (4), Ziegler (16), and Lannan (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Lee (2), Delgado - another renaissance man (15), and Swisher (2).

That leaves us with

Hitters:
Sizemore (9)
Pence (13)
LaPorta (16)
Tulowitzki (2)

I think it's pretty obvious who he's going to keep. Sizemore at round 9 is an absolute steal as he's going to provide first round talent for years to come.

Keep Sizemore (9)


Pitchers:
M Parra (16)
T Lincecum (12)
C Zambrano (2)
G Meche (16)
G Smith (16)
J Weaver (9)
J.R. Johnson (16)



We can eliminate Zambrano (2) because it's way too high. Based on talent level we can eliminate Meche (16 and not good enough), Smith (16 and not good enough yet), and J.R. Johnson (16).

So based on Parra (16), Lincecum (12), and Weaver (9) who would everyone choose. That's correct Lincecum at 12 is another amazing pick for him and this could easily set up this owner for several years to come.

Summary: Sizemore (9) and Lincecum (12)