Showing posts with label OF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OF. Show all posts

Monday, August 11, 2008

Carl Crawford Injury Analysis

Will Carroll defined Crawford's injury as a "subluxating extensor tendon" in his middle finger in today's Under The Knife column. One of the MDs he spoke with compared it to the worst type of fracture. This is definitely true and one comparable that I think of immediately is similar although different and that's Curt Schilling's bloody sock injury from 2004.

Schilling's ankle injury was a subluxating peroneal tendon in the ankle which eventually needed surgery to correct. Schilling's subluxating injury was extremely painful and diminished his effectiveness, power, and control. Crawford's injury is similar in that the tendon will most likely not heal on its own and could require surgery to fix it. The injury will cause a decrease in power, bat control, and of course effectiveness.


(courtesy of ASSH.org)

This is what happens. The area in question is the knuckle at the base of the finger on the back of your hand(right where the other tissue crosses and at the dark circle in the picture above). There is a sheath of connective tissue which basically forms the roof over the tendon in order to keep it place with movement. The other sides are all surrounded by bone and cartilage. If this sheath is torn the amount the tendon can slide around depends on the amount the sheath is torn. If the sheath is completely torn, the tendon can come all the way out (dislocate) and then go back in on its own. If the sheath isn't completely torn, the tendons don't go all the way out but they ride up to the top of one of the side lips, rendering it essentially non-functional.

The most aggregating motion for this is forceful side to side motion while gripping something like a bat. Swinging a bat requires the muscles controlling the fingers to contract forcibly which puts tension on all of the tendons. This tension is what can cause that extensor tendon to sublux.

The sheath when torn reacts just like a tendon when torn. If it is completely torn, it basically never heals without surgery. If it is partially torn, there is a chance that it will scar down, but even then it requires a length of time.

Unlike Schilling's injury, there is no bracing of the fingers which would allow him to play. In order to brace/split the finger appropriately, he would need to have his whole finger stabilized from moving in either direction.

This is why honestly, I don't expect he can avoid surgery. There usually isn't any problems long term, but there is always that small chance that it can recur.

Friday, August 1, 2008

Buy Low Sell High August 1st (Andy LaRoche/Andre Ethier)

Buy Low: Andy LaRoche

Key Stats:

Pitcher:

BABIP

K/BB

PTO%

qERA

ERA Dif

P/IP

FIP

Hitter:

BABIP

P/PA

BB/SO

GB/FB

HR/FB



2008

0.182

3.75

1.43

2.071

14.29%



2007

0.235

3.85

0.83

1.500

5.00%



2006

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A



Andy can flat out hit as he’s doing in the minors this year and the trade to Pitt will finally get him away from an organization that has been screwing him around. He has the hitting pedigree and I fully expect him to turn it around.

LaRoche, Andy 3B PIT for Lowrie, Jed SS BOS

LaRoche, Andy 3B PIT for Taveras, Willy CF COL

LaRoche, Andy 3B PIT for Wigginton, Ty 3B HOU

(These trades were done before the many trade most likely so you may have to trade a little more to get him. These were the most up to date trades I had on hand though.)

Sell High: Andre Ethier

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:

BABIP

K/BB

PTO%

qERA

ERA Dif

P/IP

FIP

Hitter:

BABIP

P/PA

BB/SO

GB/FB

HR/FB



2008

0.261

4.18

0.54

1.220

11.00%



2007

0.272

3.68

0.68

1.553

11.40%



2006

0.295

3.59

0.44

1.294

10.09%



Joe Torre isn’t known for playing his rookies or youngsters and I don’t think it’ll change now. Most likely it’s going to be Manny, Kemp, and Pierre playing most of the time which means that Ethier’s playing time is going to be dramatically reduced. It’s a shame because Ethier took some really good strides this year but it doesn’t matter if you can’t get on the field. I think he’ll have value next year so for those in keeper leagues you may want to get a little more in return.

Ethier, Andre LF LA and Perez, Chris RP STL for Lowe, Derek SP LA

Ethier, Andre LF LA for Abreu, Bobby RF NYY

Ethier, Andre LF LA and Kotchman, Casey 1B ATL for Granderson, Curtis CF DET

Thursday, July 31, 2008

So Much goin on, so little time

After looking over the numbers this morning, there isn't much sticking out to me as to being able to buy low or sell high at this point. Add that to the Manny craziness and I don't think I'm going to have a high low recommendation. i do however have some strategy.

This is the point in the year that you know what kind of team you have. For instance, because of two major injuries (Ortiz and Posada) and one pitcher being sent down and never looked at again (Liriano) I'm mired in the limbo of 6th-10th place. The league leader coincidently is Troy from RotoSavants.com who has nearly twice as many points. While there is a chance I could move up to third, I highly doubt it will happen.

So that means you're either a buyer for this year or a seller this year in order to set yourself up for next year in keeper leagues. Sell your high priced players for some one who could end up helping you next year. Last year I traded Berkman and Andruw Jones for Sizemore and Lester. (stupidly I kept Clay Buchholz instead of Lester but that's another story).

So who should you target for next year?

C
2B
SS
OF

We all know that there is a lack of depth in hitting talent up the middle. Most likely the teams in contention right now will have the top hitting catchers and/or 2b. But for SS you could try to get Peralta who is quietly having a very good season at the plate. Another player is Stephen Drew who is now over the 1000AB threshold in the MLB, has raised his BA close to 30 points in July and has seemed to have turned the corner.

In the OF, surprisingly there really isn't that much talent that you would target for next year. You could go after youngsters like Jay Bruce or Matt Kemp in the multi-year leagues as the name players are either overpriced right now or on the first place teams.

If you do decide to trade for SP, I have one rule of thumb. Never trade for guys who seem to be taking the next step. There are too many instances of guys who should take the step that haven't. And there are too many surprises like Dempster, Duchscherer, and Cliff Lee for you to overpay for next year's pitching keeper.

I'm working on a great Pitch FX project which I hope will really be able to show the differences across a couple pitchers. It should be up later on tonight.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Buy Low/Sell High July 27th (Jeremy Hermida/Aubrey Huff)

Buy Low: Jeremy Hermida

Key Stats:

Pitcher:

BABIP

K/BB

PTO%

qERA

ERA Dif

P/IP

FIP

Hitter:

BABIP

P/PA

BB/SO

GB/FB

HR/FB

2008

0.245

4.01

0.37

1.357

17.86%

2007

0.275

4.00

0.45

1.674

20.22%

2006

0.253

3.99

0.47

1.778

7.94%

After disappointing way too many fantasy owners his first couple of years, he seems to have come into his own. I had him on my radar and was going to write about him today but he had to go out and hit 2 HR last night. Timing is everything they say. Anyways, it looks like what he is doing is legit this year. His discipline is at what they’re supposed to be and his BABIP is actually a little lower than normal. You might have been able to get him for a little cheaper but if you get him now you can still get him for a good price.

Hermida, Jeremy RF FLA for Floyd, Gavin SP CHW

Hermida, Jeremy RF FLA for Maddux, Greg SP SD

Hermida, Jeremy RF FLA for Wellemeyer, Todd SP STL

Sell High: Aubrey Huff

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:

BABIP

K/BB

PTO%

qERA

ERA Dif

P/IP

FIP

Hitter:

BABIP

P/PA

BB/SO

GB/FB

HR/FB

2008

0.276

3.80

0.66

1.379

19.42%

2007

0.277

3.66

0.55

1.535

10.56%

2006

0.249

3.73

0.78

1.589

18.75%

Aubrey has shown some surprising power so far this year and may have been a surprise for several owners. Everything seems to be about average above but there is still a large part of me that just doesn’t believe he can continue this. He’s hasn’t had an OPS over 800 in 3 years but this year in his age 32 season, he’s putting up an OPS of almost 900. HIS OPS+ (courtesy of baseball-reference) is 133+. He hasn’t been at that level since 2002 and 2003. His EQA (baseballprospectus) is .293 where he hasn’t been at this level since 2002. You can get a pretty decent haul for him right now.

Huff, Aubrey 1B BAL for Teixeira, Mark 1B ATL

Huff, Aubrey 1B BAL for Bay, Jason LF PIT

Huff, Aubrey 1B BAL for Hawpe, Brad RF COL and Pena, Carlos 1B TB

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Buy Low/Sell High July 26th (Ryan Zimmerman/Xavier Nady)

Buy Low: Ryan Zimmerman

Key Stats:

Pitcher:

BABIP

K/BB

PTO%

qERA

ERA Dif

P/IP

FIP

Hitter:

BABIP

P/PA

BB/SO

GB/FB

HR/FB

2008

0.237

3.58

0.24

1.491

15.09%

2007

0.257

3.99

0.49

1.653

16.67%

2006

0.283

3.88

0.51

1.815

16.81%

Power is the one thing that usually suffers when recovering from a labral tear in the non-throwing shoulder. Power was never really a huge part of his game, he was just a good all around hitter. His BABIP is extremely low as is his BB/SO ratio. Most likely his BABIP and BB/SO will begin to return to normal which will allow him to hit his pitches rather than hit pitchers’ pitches.

Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS for Martinez, Fernando OF NYM

Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS for Pence, Hunter CF HOU

Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS for Blake, Casey 3B CLE

Sell High: Xavier Nady

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:

BABIP

K/BB

PTO%

qERA

ERA Dif

P/IP

FIP

Hitter:

BABIP

P/PA

BB/SO

GB/FB

HR/FB

2008

0.316

3.64

0.47

1.423

16.90%

2007

0.261

3.71

0.23

1.320

20.00%

2006

0.271

3.62

0.35

1.618

15.45%

Nady has turned a lucky BABIP at Pittsburgh into a deal to the Yankees that will only disappoint people. He’s going into a much tougher pitching division with Halladay, Beckett, Shields, Kazmir as just the aces. His BABIP is due to fall since his career norms are around .270. He may end up scoring a few more runs and RBIs in NY depending on where he hits in the order. I still think that you could get a good deal that can help you out down the stretch.

Gonzalez, Adrian 1B SD and Nady, Xavier RF PIT and
Wellemeyer, Todd SP STL for Beltran, Carlos CF NYM and
Pujols, Albert 1B STL

Kubel, Jason LF MIN and Nady, Xavier RF PIT for Nathan, Joe RP MIN

Nady, Xavier RF PIT for Ethier, Andre LF LA and Shields, James SP TB