Keeper Analysis

Every league is different and the main one I am in is no exception. To refresh our old readers and introduce the league to our new readers, Troy and Lee from RotoSavants.com are in a 6x6 league with myself and 9 other friends. This 12 team league is like most leagues with 4-5 consistent competitors for the title, 3-4 in the middle, and then 2-3 at the bottom each year. You can see out latest draft

2008 Draft

We are allowed to keep 1 pitcher and 1 hitter for each league with a somewhat different price for the following year. Everything starts at the round that he was drafted. If the player was not drafted and picked up off waivers or as a free agent, he was automatically assigned as a 16th round. The rules are as follows:

1. The first year the player is kept, the owner would have to sacrifice 2 rounds higher than he was drafted. (i.e. a 16th rounder, would cost the owner a 14th round pick the first keeper year)
2. For every year after, add on an additional year of "keeper cost".
3. Two keepers cannot be kept in the same round.

So as an example of an original 16th rounder:

• year 1 - 14th round cost (+2)
  
• year 2 - 11th round cost (+3)
• year 3 - 7th round cost (+4)
• year 4 - 2nd round cost (+5)
• year 5 - 1st round cost (+6)

This new system ensures 2 things:

• helps to mix up the player pool and keep owners interested
• makes the league more competitive. No longer is it simply a quick keeper pick and an owner able to stock pile the best players

So over the next week or so I'm going to break down our league, team by team, and provide analysis of who I think will be good keeper picks in our league.

Carlos Zambrano Injury Explanation

It's been revealed that Carlos Zambrano is suffering from rotator cuff tendinitis but I started noticing a difference in his PFX data as early as June 20th. His delivery changed, his arm slot dropping and by many accounts he started to "sling" the ball in the words of Will Carroll.



The reason why the arm slot will drop down because of rotator cuff problems is an issue of mechanics. The following image is courtesy of athletic scholarship.net.

When the arm raises above the athletes head, the head of the humerus must rotate downwards or the tendons will become pinched between the acromion process and the humeral head. The Rotator Cuff muscles are absolutely key in this process as they have a force couple with the deltoid muscles to keep stability of the shoulder joint and move the arm. The rotator cuff must compress the humeral head into the labrum and rotate the humeral head downward allowing the deltoid to raise the arm above the shoulder. If the rotator cuff is insufficient, the deltoids raise the arm but the humeral head doesn't rotate. The arm cannot raise above the shoulder level without the rotator cuff and the tendons get pinched between the two bones.

Therefore, instead of coming from "over the top" the pitcher must drop down to 3/4 or approaching sidearm. Another adjustment is what Zambrano did by dropping ones elbow and shot-putting the ball up to the plate.

Tendinitis can caused by several things including laxity (looseness) of the shoulder or elbow, muscle imbalances, labrum tears, or overuse. Without seeing him everyday I can't give you an exact reason but normally in power pitchers it's a combination of muscle imbalances and very minor looseness.

Based on how long he appeared to have an altered throwing motion, it will likely take just as long to get him back to 100%. I expect that he's going to be around a week or two away from being able to pitch in an MLB game again. He's probably going to be on a strict pitch limit when he comes back which is the smart things to do. Hopefully this will help set up a Cubs-Red Sox World Series.

Buy Low/Sell High Update

Been a while for the updates so here we go:

	ab/hr	ab/h	bb/so	ab/rbi	ab/run
Buy	24.8515	3.5747	0.4987	6.1128	6.719
Sell	25.5126	3.6934	0.5166	6.5431	6.600
	ab/sb	BABIP	SLG	OBP	OPS	sb
Buy	153.811	0.3137	0.4685	0.4379	0.9064	37
Sell	121.44	0.3161	0.4565	0.4396	0.8961	25

Not great but I'm still out on top on most of them. Berkman and Uggla are really hurting me in the sell group. If you take them out in a magical wonderland, I have a feeling I'd be ahead significantly.

For the pitchers, I'm doing much better although luck still isn't completely on my side:

	ERA	FIP	FIP-ERA	WHIP	K/BB
Buy	4.226	3.951	-0.275	1.296	2.789
Sell	4.118	4.342	0.224	1.345	2.019
	BABIP	K/9	H/9	HR/App	GSc	#App/W
Buy	0.293	7.920	8.822	0.574	51.352	3.771
Sell	0.286	6.143	9.058	0.627	50.344	3.616

Here even though my ERA is slightly worse, my FIP is much better, approaching a half a run better. My Buy group also has a better WHIP, K/BB, K/9, H/9, HR/Appearance, and game score. This includes everyone so I'd be curious what would happen if we took out Dempster.


Overall, my as a group my hitters have been slightly been a disappointment but my pitchers are coming through quite well. Next, week I'll compare the groups minus the highest and lowest performers in each group (Olympic Style).

Bred Penny Shut Down

Brad Penny has been shut down for the year. I previously look at his Pitch FX data and saw that he fatigued much earlier than normal. This could have been due to the inflammation and/or bursitis that he had but I was always concerned. Bursitis and inflammation in a pitchers shoulder rarely just come up out of the blue from fatigue in one start. They almost always happen because there is inherent muscular weakness, instability, or scapular dysfunction. Seeing Penny have recurrent problems is not that surprising nor was his troubled rehabiliation and subsequent decision to shut him down for the rest of the season.

One last thing that I saw in my initial write up of him was that he never seemed to fully recover before coming off his first DL stay. This is a worst case scenario for a pitcher, do enough to just be able to pitch and then try to pitch and further injuring himself.

Ultimately, the remainder of the season is gone. One can only hope and pray that it is not more severe than that.

Carpenter- a reliever????

It's being reported by many that Carpenter will return as a reliever when he comes off the DL. Is this the right thing to do with a pitcher who is coming back from injury? While plenty of injured pitchers have come back in a changed role, most of those happen over an off-season.

Carpenter went on the DL with a posterior shoulder strain around the second week of August. Since then, he's had trouble building up his arm strength and conceded on August 27th that he has residual weakness in his shoulder. He recently threw a 60 pitch bullpen session and reported no problems but converting him to a reliever may not be the best thing.

If he is used as a normal reliever, he is going to be up and down, used probably two to 3 times a week. This is quite a difference from normal starting fatigue pattern potentially. Normally the pitcher will get several days off (with a throw day) in between starts. Relieving does not allow that most of the time. So while the first several appearances may not show any effect, the more he throws in this pattern, the more likely he is to suffer from fatigue.

Fatigue is a real problem when he is already experiencing residual weakness. Fatigue will likely set in earlier and as a consequence, could increase the chances of injury as well.

I think what the Cardinals should do is "piggy-back" him with someone else. Have Carpenter start with a goal of 4-5 innings and then have a long reliever/6th starter type to come in for another 3-4 innings before turning it over to a normal bullpen. Could the Cardinals eventually do this? Of course they could. Right now though they are planning on him going into the bullpen so I will be interested to see how this plays out.

New Injury Analysis

I have a new injury analysis over at Fighting Chance Fantasy. I hope you check it out.