Buy Low/Sell High May 23,2008

Buy Low: Mark Teixeira

Key Stats:

BA HR RBI OBP SLG ESPN-Own%

.275 5 26 .364 .439 100%

BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
0.299	3.84	1.00	1.89	13.8889%

This may be a little too late but it stands mentioning that Mark very rarely starts to heat up this early into the season. This past week he has been on fire so the time is short in terms of being able to get him for a lower price. His BABIP is right in line with what it should be but he is being almost twice as selective at the plate. Normally he averages about 0.60 BB/SO so he is well above average there. Also he’s been hitting a lot more GB than before. Normally he sits around 0.90 GB/FB and hitting that many grounders eventually will regress back down to his normal. When he starts hitting more FB it means more HR. Also his HR/FB% has been historically around 18-20% so he has been a little unlucky in this area as well. Overall, I think he’s an excellent trade target right now.

Sell High: Scott Olsen

Key Stats: 

ERA     W-L     SO      WHIP    ESPN-Own%

2.82    4-1     27      1.17    84.9%

BABIP	BB/SO	PTO%	QERA
0.214	1.04	27.17%	6.178545

What can I say. These numbers say it all. He has been so extremely lucky it’s as if I went up there and managed to throw a few shutout innings. His BABIP is asinine right now and his dominance is way too low. To walk as many people as he has and still have an ERA under 3 is amazing. Looking at what his ERA should be you can see that it is over 3 runs worse. Unload him as soon as you can for anything remotely useful.

Buy Low Sell High

After looking around several different blogs, I noticed that many blogs are going to tell you what players to pick up. I'm going to focus on a Buy Low/Sell High format for those 3-12 rounders that can make or break your season. On top of everything else, I will still be continuing to evaluate pitch F/X data on pitchers that as I deem necessary.

So with the first installment of Buy Low/Sell High I focused on Jason Giambi and John Lannan.

Buy Low: Jason Giambi

Key Stats:

G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS+

37 113    17   23   6  0   8   21   1  1  24  17  .204  .363  .469 .832  129

BABIP	BB/SO	P/PA	GB/FB	HR/FB
0.170	1.41	3.84	0.775	20.00%

Jason has very quietly begun to produce again. His BABIP is incredibly low but his OPS+ is above league average and would be very useful to most teams as a spot starter or Utility guy. He’s more selective at the plate than since his days in Oakland but he’s seeing slightly less pitches per Plate appearance than years past. Even though his GB/FB ration is higher than it has been in several years his HR/FB ratio is exactly in line to what he has been in the past when healthy. So this means that when his BABIP climbs, most likely his GB/FB ratio will decrease and more of the balls he puts into play will end up over the fence. He is an excellent candidate to bounce back and I would target him in all AL-leagues and most mixed league formats, especially those that use OBP instead of BA.

Sell High: John Lannan

Key Stats: W   L   IP     H    R   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP

           4   4   53.0   57   21   20   4   19   34   3.40  4.21  124  1.434

BABIP	SO/BB	PTO%	QERA
.308	1.79	26.3%	4.531

John has had a great run at it so far with his ERA but that is really it. His BABIP is right in line with what it should be but his ERA is over a full run better than what it should be. His PTO% (ease of outs, aka dominance)really isn’t in line with others at his ERA and his command of 1.79 isn’t good at all. Good pitchers who have success has a K/BB ratio over 2 and a PTO% over 28%. He has been getting lots of attention on ESPN and other news programs recently and he should be able to net you a decent #3 OF or CI in return.

Buy Low -- Robinson Cano

Inspired by a trade that recently went down in my league, I decided to write about Robinson Cano and how he needs to be picked up immediately or traded for rather quickly.

The trade in question (thank god it wasn't involving me) was like this:

Team 1 gives up Robinson Cano and Jeff Francoeur

Team 2 gives up Shawn Marcum and Kelly Johnson

Team 1 supposedly needed pitching help and Francoeur was on his bench (behind Hideki Matsui).

When I read this I just couldn't believe this trade just happened. Team 1 has got to be one of the more bone-headed players there is. After this went down, I had to explain that Marcum's BABIP was a ridiculously low .183. He said well he'll ride his lucky streak as long as possible then.

So this brings me to Cano. I'm surprised Cano was involved since Team 1 is a Yankee fan but regardless he said that Cano has been atrocious. So let's be objective (instead of my Yankee hatred by my Red Sox blood) and look at how "bad" Cano has been according to team 1.

First I love BABIP, it's quick and easy and Cano's is a paltry .206 this year. Over the past 3 years he has average a BABIP of .338. Based on this alone I expect Cano's stats to improve.

Second he is seeing more pitches per plate appearance (#/PA) than ever before. He is up to 3.55 pitches per PA after improving every year he has been in the league. Expectation: more selective at plate

Third, he's taking more walks than before. His BB/SO ratio is up to 0.53. While this isn't very good at all in general, it represents a great improvement from his 0.24 and 0.33 years early on. Expectation: More selective plate appearances

The fourth major thing I looked at was his GB/FB ratio, which is currently at 1.51. This is well below his 3 year average of 1.68. Less FB = less HR. Less HR = less RBI, runs, and TB.
Expectation: More FB and more HR.

The last thing I look at is his lineup that he's in. AROD has been out. Posada has been out. Giambi has been atrocious. Damon, Matsui, and Jeter all haven't been the same players from year's past. Once everyone starts to get back healthy and the summertime comes in it's warmer weather, I expect Cano to get more opportunities to drive players in and also be driven in.

So let's see. Every single thing points to Cano improving from this point forward.

I tried explaining this methodology to Team #1 owner but some owners just aren't willing to put in the extra work. Trade analysis is hard work, especially when it comes to looking at your team objectively. You absolutely must look past the traditional counting stats to see whether or not a guy is simply unlucky at the moment and waiting for the hits to start coming.

Remember what you would have thought about David Ortiz a couple weeks ago and look at his stats now.

Lester No-Hitter Breakdown

For the second year in a row, a young Red Sox hurler threw a no-hitter. It took Lester 130 pitches tonight but he only threw 2 walks and struck out 9. Giving him a game score of 94. How amazing was he tonight? Look at his charts courtesy of Brooksbaseball.net.



His release point was amazing tonight. It was incredibly tight and that allowed his break to really move. He didn't necessarily have that great command tonight, but by having that much movement and that tight a release point it really allowed him to fool a lot of hitters.

He seems to really have turned a corner in terms of his aggressiveness on the mound. He got ahead first pitch strikes to 19 out of 28 batters faced and he really bore down when needed. He also has much better command of his fastball which consistently reaches in the mid-90s. Mix this in with the fact that he hides the ball well during his delivery and he's a great waiver wire pick.

He's only owned in 45.9% of ESPN leagues and 88% of CBS leagues. He would make a great 4th starter on any fantasy team now and could potentially be a good #3 on some teams.