Alex Gordon Injury

Gordon tore his quad yesterday which should end his season. Initially it was thought that he strained a groin muscle but instead it was released that he tore the quad. If it was thought to be a groin strain, the quad tear must be high up there very close to his hip and likely involves the Rectus Femoris muscle of the quad.

This muscle is the only one of the 4 muscles of the quad that crosses the hip joint and aids in hip flexion. Tearing of this muscle takes a couple months to recover (at least) usually which means I expect Alex to be done for the season.

He still hasn't lived up to the hype yet but this means he could be a great sleeper candidate entering next year.

Clay Buchholz PFX

I have a new PFX article up at RotoSavants. I hope you check it out. I think that the switch in arm slot is his main problem, not any injury.

Beckett injury

There is a lot going on that says basically no one knows what really is causing his symptoms. From everywhere that I see, it's being reported that he has "tingling" in his pinkie and ring finger. I don't see any mention of symptoms elsewhere. The thing that causes me concern is that this is the distribution of the ulnar nerve.

The ulnar nerve is the one that is often injured with injuries to the Ulnar Collateral Ligament of the elbow, the very same one that is involved with Tommy John surgery. As of right now, I am not suggesting that he has a deficient ligament right now but it is one of the first things that come to mind.

The ulnar nerve breaks off the Brachial Plexus, a network of nerves that receives information from the nerves coming out of the spinal cord. If there was a problem at the level of the brachial plexus where everything is interwoven, then he would likely, but not always, have symptoms elsewhere as well. These include but are not limited to tingling/burning on the back of the hand, forearm, or other fingers.

The Ulnar Nerve breaks off after everything is already intermingled with everything else at about the front of the shoulder, a little bit above the armpit level. The nerve then passes through the armpit, down through some tissue separating the biceps and triceps muscles and then down the arm/forearm, passing through the cubital tunnel as it goes past the elbow. Pressure at anyplace after the branching off could cause the tingling in the fingers.

Beckett has said that this wasn't the first time it's happened this season which is another flag against simply sleeping wrong on it. But if he has simply slept on it wrong, there are two main sites where the pressure could be coming from: as it passes through the armpit and then as it passes between the biceps and the triceps muscles. The elbow is also a concern for pitchers because of the repetitive flexing and extending which can cause problems at the cubital tunnel in the elbow. If you sleep on it and put constant pressure on it, it eventually causes symptoms that last and are similar to those by Beckett.

I want to be clear though that the Ulnar Nerve does not travel through the carpal tunnel. The Median nerve does which gives sensation to the palm and the the other fingers (it does have a slight innervation of the ring finger but none on the pinkie). Therefore I am not even considering Carpal Tunnel even though some people have mentioned it. Even if the nerve did pass through the tunnel (which it doesn't) it would be more likely to occur while throwing than waking up the next day.

Staying in one position for a while causes the muscles to tighten up, just think about when you have to sit in one position for a while. This is what causes me to think it is likely at one of the two sites noted above. If it was something related to a non-functional ligament he would be much more likely to experience it while throwing than waking up the next day.

So what does this all mean to me and might mean to you. I think it's either due to irritation in the cubital tunnel in the elbow (where you hit your funny bone), a slight compression as it passes down the arm through the tissue in between the biceps/triceps, and maybe a problem in his lower neck as the nerves come out of the spinal cord. Even though I said before that problems at that level would lead to symptoms other than what he feels, occasionally it does produce those very ones. I would put cubital tunnel issue 1, neck problems 2, and compression in between the biceps and triceps 3.

All of these have potential to keep him out for several weeks and possibly longer if it doesn't heal quickly.

Injury News and Analysis

My new injury analysis column is up at Fighting Chance Fantasy. I will have a in depth analysis of the Beckett situation either later on tonight or tomorrow at the latest.

Does character play an issue?

First Manny, now Upton. If you have these guys on your team (more so Upton this year and Manny from years past) these situations absolutely drive you nuts. With Manny the question was when would he come up with a mystery ailment and tank it. With Upton, it's whether or not he's going to run out of the box and get benched as a result.



Leagues are often determined by as little as a HR on the final day or a couple scavenger wins so every single game is important. That's why I haven't viewed Manny as a first rounder since 2004 and why I won't view Upton in the first 6 rounds until he gets his head together.



When I evaluate these kinds of players I put them in the injury prone category. We have always focused on the injury prone guys such as Prior, Wood, J.D. Drew and adjusted their value accordingly.



Why shouldn't we do the same with Manny who hasn't played in 140 games in 4 years? Why shouldn't we do it with Upton, who not only gets hurt, he also gets benched for repeatedly not hustling and continues to do it again and again?



This doesn't mean they don't have value. It just means that their name has more value than their production and their risk.

Billy Wagner breakdown

With the news coming out of the Mets organization that Wagner is experiencing elbow pain, fans are understandably worried about their championship chances. Most fans are worried that he will need Tommy John surgery, ending his chances of coming back this year and almost surely next year as well. Looking at the PFX data, I think the Mets fans and those in the organization might not want to hold their breath. Nothing is 100% conclusive but I am worried (he's on my fantasy team).

Injuries to the elbow are commonly said to effect control more than velocity so let's take a look at that first. Initially looking at the chart of % of pitches that were thrown, there doesn't seem to be any sort of general trend. I think this is somewhat deceiving though. The pitches that were recorded as balls were either 1) so far out of the zone that the batter was never going to swing in the first place or 2) the batter guessed wrong but the pitcher didn't hit his spot. Another result of the pitcher not hitting his spots (and therefore not having as good command) is the balls that were put in play.


Some pitchers do pitch to contact, however non of them want the ball to be hit hard. They either want weak pop ups or weak ground balls. That's where the 3rd chart come in. In the 3rd one the cumulative percentage of pitches that were balls or hit into play trended towards increasing throughout the year. There are two trend lines. The first flat one is a straight shot linear trend line. It's crude and ineffective for huge variences in numbers like these but it helps to show the general trend. The other trend line is a 15 period moving average. Common in financial analysis, it helps to show more of the trend over time while taking into account each individual case rather than the group as a whole. Clearly both of these lines trend more towards increasing amounts of pitches that are balls or are hit in play.

Is that part of Wagner's plan? Is he pitching to contact and letting his defense take care of things? The answer is no (sort-of). He started off well, giving up no hits but he has given up more hits over the last few months and that worries me. He does have period where he doesn't give up hits but he's given up hits more often. This data, when combined with the other chart, gives me the best indication that something is wrong. He is consistently missing his spots and he is getting hit hard when he misses those spots.



Is his speed any different? The answer is yes, but not in the manner that you would think with an arm injury. His average fastball speed has actually trended upwards throughout the year. This could be a compensation for the elbow/forearm woes. Commonly when a pitcher has elbow/wrist pain, they end up throwing the pitch harder in an attempt to get more movement on it. Most of the time this is not the proper way as movement is commonly tied to hand/wrist/forearm motion. Therefore you could see a general trend upwards in end speed with an elbow injury.

Which leads me to vertical movement, one of the key things scouts look for. Here is movement is also depressed relative to where it was earlier in the year. Each of his pitches are losing vertical movement over time.



Last but not least, his release point has consistently changed throughout the season. It varies widely throughout the range between a little over 4 feet to close to 5.5 feet.



So after a long post, what can we see. We see a pitcher who is losing his command and control while also losing movement throughout the year. He's throwing his fastball harder, possibly in an attempt to compensate for the drop-off in movement. Finally we see a pitcher who's release point is only consistent in the fact that it is inconsistent. To me that spells trouble, especially with the news that his elbow is now hurting.

Injury News and Analysis

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.