Billy Wagner breakdown

With the news coming out of the Mets organization that Wagner is experiencing elbow pain, fans are understandably worried about their championship chances. Most fans are worried that he will need Tommy John surgery, ending his chances of coming back this year and almost surely next year as well. Looking at the PFX data, I think the Mets fans and those in the organization might not want to hold their breath. Nothing is 100% conclusive but I am worried (he's on my fantasy team).

Injuries to the elbow are commonly said to effect control more than velocity so let's take a look at that first. Initially looking at the chart of % of pitches that were thrown, there doesn't seem to be any sort of general trend. I think this is somewhat deceiving though. The pitches that were recorded as balls were either 1) so far out of the zone that the batter was never going to swing in the first place or 2) the batter guessed wrong but the pitcher didn't hit his spot. Another result of the pitcher not hitting his spots (and therefore not having as good command) is the balls that were put in play.


Some pitchers do pitch to contact, however non of them want the ball to be hit hard. They either want weak pop ups or weak ground balls. That's where the 3rd chart come in. In the 3rd one the cumulative percentage of pitches that were balls or hit into play trended towards increasing throughout the year. There are two trend lines. The first flat one is a straight shot linear trend line. It's crude and ineffective for huge variences in numbers like these but it helps to show the general trend. The other trend line is a 15 period moving average. Common in financial analysis, it helps to show more of the trend over time while taking into account each individual case rather than the group as a whole. Clearly both of these lines trend more towards increasing amounts of pitches that are balls or are hit in play.

Is that part of Wagner's plan? Is he pitching to contact and letting his defense take care of things? The answer is no (sort-of). He started off well, giving up no hits but he has given up more hits over the last few months and that worries me. He does have period where he doesn't give up hits but he's given up hits more often. This data, when combined with the other chart, gives me the best indication that something is wrong. He is consistently missing his spots and he is getting hit hard when he misses those spots.



Is his speed any different? The answer is yes, but not in the manner that you would think with an arm injury. His average fastball speed has actually trended upwards throughout the year. This could be a compensation for the elbow/forearm woes. Commonly when a pitcher has elbow/wrist pain, they end up throwing the pitch harder in an attempt to get more movement on it. Most of the time this is not the proper way as movement is commonly tied to hand/wrist/forearm motion. Therefore you could see a general trend upwards in end speed with an elbow injury.

Which leads me to vertical movement, one of the key things scouts look for. Here is movement is also depressed relative to where it was earlier in the year. Each of his pitches are losing vertical movement over time.



Last but not least, his release point has consistently changed throughout the season. It varies widely throughout the range between a little over 4 feet to close to 5.5 feet.



So after a long post, what can we see. We see a pitcher who is losing his command and control while also losing movement throughout the year. He's throwing his fastball harder, possibly in an attempt to compensate for the drop-off in movement. Finally we see a pitcher who's release point is only consistent in the fact that it is inconsistent. To me that spells trouble, especially with the news that his elbow is now hurting.