Buy Low/Sell High July 19th (Nick Blackburn/Richie Sexson)

Buy Low: Nick Blackburn

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.308	3.560	28.5%	4.37	-0.717	14.33	3.92
2007	0.405	4.000	27.47%	4.31	3.405	15.90	4.84
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

Nick’s numbers are slightly skewed by 2 bad outing where he gave up 7 ER and gave up 6 ERs. He’s very efficient with his pitches as evidenced by throwing less than 15 pitches per IP. This is generally the cut-off for being a good pitcher versus an average one. Same goes with his command being above 3, which is near elite levels. His FIP is higher than his ERA but his BABIP is right where it should be. You can probably get him pretty cheap and he’ll help you with WHIP as well as a decent amount of Ks.

Blackburn, Nick SP MIN for Bergmann, Jason SP WAS

Blackburn, Nick SP MIN for Olsen, Scott SP FLA

Blackburn, Nick SP MIN for Percival, Troy RP TB

Sell High: Richie Sexson

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.194	4.03	0.49	1.796	22.45%
2007	0.175	3.73	0.51	1.670	21.65%
2006	0.232	3.95	0.42	1.386	24.29%

If you unfortunately stuck with Sexson through the thick and thin I would sell him as quickly as possible when he puts on the Yankee uniform. Many people will think he’s going to be better than what he is once he gets in a better lineup. He’s not. All of his numbers are within normal ranges for his last 3 years so it’s not like he’s been extremely unlucky. He is what he is, so get rid of him for anything possible.

Myers, Brett SP PHI and Sexson, Richie 1B SEA for Bruce, Jay CF CIN and Smith, Greg SP OAK

Sexson, Richie 1B SEA for Guillen, Jose RF KC

Sexson, Richie 1B SEA for Ross, Cody LF FLA

Buy Low/Sell High July 18th (Gio Gonzalez/Dustin Pedroia)

Buy Low: Gio Gonzalez

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
2007	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

Normally I don’t recommend players who have very little to no time in the majors but like I said counting stats is easier to make up points than rate stats in the 2^nd half. Gio has the strikeout potential to really help your team in the 2^nd half with the trade of Joe Blanton. Gio has been averaging a k/9 over 9 and this could definitely help your team. The only slight problem is he hasn’t been named a candidate to fill the rotation spot. Still the time to buy low is now because once he does get named his value will skyrocket.

Gonzalez, Gio SP OAK for Lilly, Ted SP CHC

Gonzalez, Gio SP OAK for Mills, Beau 1B CLE

Gonzalez, Gio SP OAK for Greene, Khalil SS SD

Sell High: Dustin Pedroia

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.318	3.77	0.69	1.571	8.57%
2007	0.336	3.81	1.12	1.732	6.50%
2006	0.192	4.02	1.00	2.667	13.33%

He has had quite a run the first half of the season despite seeing a lot less pitches. His BABIP is inflated and he has a lot less BB than previously. True there isn’t a lot of 2b help around but I think he will regress some. There is a chance he could continue once Ortiz comes back but it Pedroia has such a good value right now I would look at trading him and then picking up someone who would give you 90% of Pedroia.

Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS for Bruce, Jay CF CIN

Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS for Roberts, Brian 2B BAL

Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS for Uggla, Dan 2B FLA and Wakefield, Tim SP BOS

Buy Low/Sell High July 17th (Freddy Sanchez/Ryan Ludwick)

Buy Low: Freddy Sanchez

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.225	3.55	0.26	1.718	5.88%
2007	0.308	3.39	0.42	1.323	6.71%
2006	0.357	3.43	0.60	1.316	3.80%

Freddy’s season has been rough in the average department and that is largely because of the BABIP. This is weird though because he is seeing more pitches while walking less. He is being less aggressive initially and getting a few strikes on him. Courtesy of baseball reference.com he swung at only 27% of 1^st pitches while last year it was 33% and in 2006 it was 30%. He had a shoulder injury earlier in the year so I do have a slight worry that the shoulder is what is causing him to have the BABIP but it’s so much lower I expect a regression regardless.

Sanchez, Freddy 2B PIT for Looper, Braden SP STL and
Michaels, Jason LF PIT

Sanchez, Freddy 2B PIT for Buck, John C KC

Sanchez, Freddy 2B PIT for Thames, Marcus LF DET

Sell High: Ryan Ludwick

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.254	3.78	0.48	0.711	25.30%
2007	0.260	3.87	0.36	1.304	20.29%
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

I’m not saying it’ll be easy but now would be the time to get rid of Ludwick. He’s completely changed his GB/FB ratio and has spiked the HR/FB%. Everything else is in line with his previous career numbers. You might not be able to get as good a haul as a month ago but you can still get a decent haul in return. Another thing to remember is that he is 30 years old and may be getting that one semi-spike season. When he does regress it’s going to be quick and painful as evidenced by his June numbers.

Ludwick, Ryan OF STL for Hernandez, Felix SP SEA

Ludwick, Ryan OF STL and Ryan, B.J. RP TOR for Hamilton, Josh CF TEX

Ludwick, Ryan OF STL for Beckett, Josh SP BOS and
Guillen, Jose RF KC