Buy Low/Sell High July 28th (Fernando Rodney/Brad Ziegler)

Buy Low: Fernando Rodney

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.22	1.500	27.9%	5.07	0.097	17.58	5.06
2007	0.306	2.570	28.09%	3.64	0.617	18.26	3.66
2006	0.238	1.91	28.83%	4.05	-0.526	16.69	3.94

Rodney has been named the closer for now and at this stage of the game you want to get saves any which way you can. All of his peripherals are off his careers norms so I expect them to come back. One thing you have to worry about is his stability as closer. He may end up losing the job but if you think he’ll keep it, he could rack up close to 15-20 saves the rest of the way.

Rodney, Fernando RP DET for Rodriguez, Wandy SP HOU

Rodney, Fernando RP DET for Gallagher, Sean RP OAK

Rodney, Fernando RP DET for Doumit, Ryan C PIT

Sell High: Brad Ziegler

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.222	2.170	30.6%	4.05	-4.051	12.96	3.02
2007	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

This one is for the deep leagues around there who might have to use middle relievers. Obviously we all know that he’s going to give up a run eventually. So better to sell right now and get something good in return.

Ziegler, Brad RP OAK for Burnett, A.J. SP TOR

Ordonez, Magglio RF DET and Ziegler, Brad RP OAK for Matthews, Gary CF ANA and Rivera, Mariano RP NYY

Anderson, Brian N. CF CHW and Carmona, Fausto SP CLE and Hochevar, Luke SP KC and Humber, Philip SP MIN and Ziegler, Brad RP OAK for Beckett, Josh SP BOS and Ramirez, Manny LF BOS

Buy Low/Sell High July 24th (Joel Hanrahan/ Armando Galarraga)

Buy Low: Joel Hanrahan

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.296	1.970	30.0%	4.16	-0.059	17.32	3.83
2007	0.325	1.130	23.29%	6.08	-0.075	20.12	6.11
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

After the Rauch trade, Hanrahan has been named the closer for the Nationals. As I have started to say many times, at this point of the year Saves are Saves. His numbers across the board aren’t really great but they don’t have anyone else out there. You need to try and get him today before everyone else can put in a claim or his price skyrockets like Marte. He does strike out a ton of people so he will be able to help you in more than one category.

Hanrahan, Joel SP WAS for Perkins, Glen RP MIN

Hanrahan, Joel SP WAS for Golson, Greg OF PHI

Hanrahan, Joel SP WAS for Jones, Andruw CF LA

Sell High: Armando Galarraga

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.234	1.840	27.8%	4.77	-1.361	15.66	4.67
2007	0.25	0.860	25.57%	6.71	-0.480	17.13	7.59
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

You want to talk about being lucky. His FIP-ERA is a whopping 1.258. HIS BABIP is extremely low and he’s inefficient in his pitches. After carrying a perfect game into the 7^th last night you might be able to get a lot in return. Lastly his control is good but not nearly good enough to keep him at this level.

Galarraga, Armando SP DET for Putz, J.J. RP SEA

Galarraga, Armando SP DET and Wood, Kerry RP CHC for Bruce, Jay CF CIN and Wagner, Billy RP NYM

Galarraga, Armando SP DET for Ryan, B.J. RP TOR

Buy Low/Sell High July 12th (A.J. Burnett, Francisco Rodrigez)

Weekend Edition: I have family in town this weekend so I won’t be able to provide updates on Saturday and Sunday. I will provide a weekend edition though.

Buy Low: A.J. Burnett

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.337	2.110	29.1%	4.10	1.132	17.13	3.75
2007	0.262	2.67	32.05%	3.34	0.415	15.99	4.09
2006	0.317	3.03	29.62%	3.64	0.340	16.00	3.69

According to the regular numbers, A.J. is having a horrible year so far with an ERA of over 5 and a WHIP north of 1.5. His FIP though is only 3.75 so he has been extremely unlucky in this regard. The 17 pitches per inning is a little scary but I think this is mainly due to his lack of luck. He has the ability to absolutely dominate the game if his mind is there and chances are he will be traded to the NL East, possibly Philly. If he goes to Philly he won’t have to face a very tough offense in the whole division. During the trading play it up that you want the strikeouts only so you don’t have to overpay for him.

Burnett, A.J. SP TOR for Winn, Randy RF

Burnett, A.J. SP TOR for Rodriguez, Wandy SP HOU

Burnett, A.J. SP TOR for DeJesus, David CF KC

Sell High: Francisco Rodriguez

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.228	1.580	28.8%	4.85	-2.370	17.00	3.83
2007	0.309	2.65	31.83%	3.16	-0.352	17.83	2.67
2006	0.288	3.50	34.13%	2.78	-1.046	16.66	2.78

Yes I know he’s having a great season, so far historical. Yes I know he’s carried your teams saves right now. But that doesn’t matter. It only matters what he does from here on out. There is a reason why records aren’t broken too often in baseball (at least non-HR records), it’s because it takes a truly remarkable season. Everything above points to someone who has been extremely lucky this year despite having control problems. Even the kindest version of ERA comparison for him is his FIP at 3.83 or over a full 1.50 more than his current ERA. Trading away a closer is sacrilegious to some but if you can get a “lesser” one in return then it will soften the blow. Sell Rodriguez and x for y plus someone of a slightly less level (street, wagner).

Rodriguez, Francisco RP ANA for Bruce, Jay CF CIN and Lyon, Brandon RP ARI and Pence, Hunter CF HOU

Griffey, Ken RF CIN and Rodriguez, Francisco RP ANA for Kazmir, Scott SP TB

Guillen, Carlos 1B DET and Rodriguez, Francisco RP ANA for Howard, Ryan 1B PHI