So Much goin on, so little time

After looking over the numbers this morning, there isn't much sticking out to me as to being able to buy low or sell high at this point. Add that to the Manny craziness and I don't think I'm going to have a high low recommendation. i do however have some strategy.

This is the point in the year that you know what kind of team you have. For instance, because of two major injuries (Ortiz and Posada) and one pitcher being sent down and never looked at again (Liriano) I'm mired in the limbo of 6th-10th place. The league leader coincidently is Troy from RotoSavants.com who has nearly twice as many points. While there is a chance I could move up to third, I highly doubt it will happen.

So that means you're either a buyer for this year or a seller this year in order to set yourself up for next year in keeper leagues. Sell your high priced players for some one who could end up helping you next year. Last year I traded Berkman and Andruw Jones for Sizemore and Lester. (stupidly I kept Clay Buchholz instead of Lester but that's another story).

So who should you target for next year?

C
2B
SS
OF

We all know that there is a lack of depth in hitting talent up the middle. Most likely the teams in contention right now will have the top hitting catchers and/or 2b. But for SS you could try to get Peralta who is quietly having a very good season at the plate. Another player is Stephen Drew who is now over the 1000AB threshold in the MLB, has raised his BA close to 30 points in July and has seemed to have turned the corner.

In the OF, surprisingly there really isn't that much talent that you would target for next year. You could go after youngsters like Jay Bruce or Matt Kemp in the multi-year leagues as the name players are either overpriced right now or on the first place teams.

If you do decide to trade for SP, I have one rule of thumb. Never trade for guys who seem to be taking the next step. There are too many instances of guys who should take the step that haven't. And there are too many surprises like Dempster, Duchscherer, and Cliff Lee for you to overpay for next year's pitching keeper.

I'm working on a great Pitch FX project which I hope will really be able to show the differences across a couple pitchers. It should be up later on tonight.

Buy Low/Sell High Trade Candidates July 7th (Brad Hawpe, Jerry Hairston)

Buy Low: Brad Hawpe

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.216	4.06	0.67	1.241	20.69%
2007	0.264	3.97	0.59	1.180	23.77%
2006	0.273	3.96	0.60	1.538	20.75%

Ever since he has come off the DL he has been on fire, hitting 9 HR and having an OPS of an even 1.000. Yet because he’s out in Colorado you don’t hear too much about him since he’s next to Holliday. The thing I like a lot is that his BABIP is a lot lower than his career average even though he’s being more patient at the plate. Also his HR/FB is in line with his career average so he appears to be a little unlucky right now. You can get him real cheap and I recommend him immediately.

Hawpe, Brad RF COL for Garko, Ryan 1B CLE

Hawpe, Brad RF COL for Doumit, Ryan C PIT

Hawpe, Brad RF COL for Byrnes, Eric CF ARI

Sell High: Jerry Hairston

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.367	3.79	0.46	2.000	6.67%
2007	0.208	3.77	0.46	1.462	7.69%
2006	0.233	3.83	0.38	1.886	0.00%

Noone can keep up a .367 BABIP throughout the year. Ever since he came off the DL he has been getting hits left and right and now is the perfect time to sell him high, especially since CIN will not be going anywhere and may potentially start trading away other players. Everything else is in line but that BABIP is just crazy. Hairston won’t be able to get you much in a one for one trade but package him in a deal and you could get a good haul.

Hairston, Jerry LF CIN and Nady, Xavier RF PIT for Guerrero, Vladimir RF ANA

Hairston, Jerry LF CIN and Taveras, Willy CF COL for Beltran, Carlos CF NYM

Hairston, Jerry LF CIN and Webb, Brandon SP ARI for Holliday, Matt LF COL and Penny, Brad SP LA

Rafael Furcal and Surgery

Furcal was announced to have surgery today in what will most likely be a procedure called a microdiscectomy. This is a minimally invasive procedure that removes only the portion of the disc that is causing the pinching or pressure on one of the spinal nerve roots. (see the image below courtesy of eSpine.com and Robert Pashman, M.D.) This operation uses a surgical microscope and microsurgical techniques and thus requires only a very small incision. The recovery time is a lot less than a traditional discectomy in which a large portion or all of the disc.

So why is it done instead of traditional rehab? It's usually only done for very specific conditions and only after a traditional round of rehabilitation has been attempted. Generally, a lumbar microsdiscectomy is performed only when the ruptured disc is pinching a spinal nerve root and it causes:

1. Leg pain which limits your normal daily functions
   
2. Muscular weakness in your leg(s) or feet
   
3. Numbness/tingling
   
4. Decreased bowel and/or bladder function
   

Furcal has met at least 3 of the four conditions and maybe the 4^th and we just don't know. So after his failed attempt at rehab there was no need to try another bout.

The operation is described above and the rehab is accelerated once the area has healed well. Core muscles are worked to focus on core stability taking pressure off the low back as is stretching of the hamstrings.

Note: I'm considering doing a weekly series on common injuries in baseball and the treatment, i.e. labral tears, elbow flexor strains, impingement, etc. in much the same format as above. I think that this will help everyone understand the risks and potential recovery time a lot better than simply analyzing it once it happens. If this is something you're interested in, I'd love to hear from you.

Buy Low/Sell High June 22nd (Aviles, McClung)

Buy Low: Mike Aviles (ss)

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.286	3.47	4.33	1.133	20.00%
2007	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

This kid has come up with a bang so far and everything seems to point that he can continue. Nothing above screams out that he’s above and beyond. He was the Royals Minor League Player of the Year and he was simply raking in AAA before his call up. SS isn’t what it used to be, he could probably help many a team.

Aviles, Mike SS KC for Doumit, Ryan C PIT

Aviles, Mike SS KC for Crosby, Bobby SS OAK

Aviles, Mike SS KC for Loaiza, Esteban SP CHW

Sell High: Seth McClung (SP, RP)

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.26	1.900	27.0%	4.61	-0.666	16.98
2007	0.333	2.20	27.88%	3.87	0.627	17.33
2006	0.316	0.87	21.97%	6.57	-0.284	18.87

Nothing about his 2008 line makes me think that he deserves his current record. He’s bound to regress at some point and when that does, it won’t be pretty.

McClung, Seth RP MIL for Lester, Jon SP BOS

Colon, Bartolo SP BOS and McClung, Seth RP MIL McGowan, Dustin SP TOR and Pence, Hunter CF HOU for Guerrero, Vladimir RF ANA

Buy Low/Sell High June 18th (Peralta/Thames)

Buy Low: Jhonny Peralta

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	QuickERA	ERA Dif	P/IP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.200	3.78	3.17	1.545	20.00%
2007	0.252	3.93	4.14	1.711	17.36%
2006	0.248	4.12	4.00	1.624	10.40%

Jhonny’s BABIP is nowhere near his average and he’s much more aggressive at the plate seeing the lowest numbers of pitches/PA in 3 years. The general offense, which has been horrendous and can’t get much worse, should improve once Hafner comes back. Jhonny also has improved his HR rate the last 2 years.

Peralta, Jhonny SS CLE for Slowey, Kevin SP MIN

Peralta, Jhonny SS CLE for Bourn, Michael RF HOU

Peralta, Jhonny SS CLE for Betancourt, Yuniesky SS SEA

Sell High: Marcus Thames

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	QuickERA	ERA Dif	P/IP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.187	3.86	1.40	0.806	33.33%
2007	0.207	3.60	1.38	1.203	28.13%
2006	0.228	4.04	0.87	0.676	25.49%

A lot of people are going to be trying to buy Thames because of his recent home run barrage and that’s why it’s the perfect time to sell him to someone. He’s someone who is incredibly streaky and his BABIP isn’t really different from his career average. Factor in the fact that the chances of him continuing the streak are extremely low, especially if people start to get healthy on that time. You can get real good value here and plug just about any hole in your team. Do you think a MLB player can hit 33% of all his FB for HR?? I don’t.

Thames, Marcus LF DET and Snell, Ian SP PIT for Haren, Dan SP ARI and Kotchman, Casey 1B ANA

Thames, Marcus LF DET for Suzuki, Ichiro CF SEA

Thames, Marcus LF DET and Lowrie, Jed SS BOS for Abreu, Bobby RF NYY