Does character play an issue?

First Manny, now Upton. If you have these guys on your team (more so Upton this year and Manny from years past) these situations absolutely drive you nuts. With Manny the question was when would he come up with a mystery ailment and tank it. With Upton, it's whether or not he's going to run out of the box and get benched as a result.



Leagues are often determined by as little as a HR on the final day or a couple scavenger wins so every single game is important. That's why I haven't viewed Manny as a first rounder since 2004 and why I won't view Upton in the first 6 rounds until he gets his head together.



When I evaluate these kinds of players I put them in the injury prone category. We have always focused on the injury prone guys such as Prior, Wood, J.D. Drew and adjusted their value accordingly.



Why shouldn't we do the same with Manny who hasn't played in 140 games in 4 years? Why shouldn't we do it with Upton, who not only gets hurt, he also gets benched for repeatedly not hustling and continues to do it again and again?



This doesn't mean they don't have value. It just means that their name has more value than their production and their risk.

Counting stats redux

As I mentioned previously, counting stats are basically the only things that count right now. Rate stats, while important, simpy require too much to move them one way or another. Its going to take too many days of 10 for 20s to move your BA or your OBP. Same thing with ERA and WHIP.

So when a pitcher on a so-so team goes to a contender, you must pay attention. Paul Byrd is in that boat tonight as he makes his debut for the Sox. Wins were very hard to come by during his days with CLE but as you can see the Sox's offense is alive and well.

Tonights a tough matchup as the Red Sox are going against Halladay and the Blue Jays. They do however have a ton of games left against BAL, TOR, TEX, and TB.

I expect Byrd to win 60% of his starts from here on out. That would give him about 4 wins depending on the rotation. For someone who may still be on the wire, he could be a godsend.

Next year young pitching keepers

I wrote about keeper prospects out of the young hitters for the years to come yesterday. Today we're going to focus on those younger pitchers that I feel will be ready in a year or two to begin helping with your team. Guys like Kershaw, or Lester from last year, or Hamels from a few years ago are too well known to get any good value for them.

So who do I think will be a breakout either in the 2nd half of next year or the year after?

Chris Carpenter
Ricky Nolasco
Ubaldo Jimenez
Chris Volstad
Matt Garza
Scott Baker
David Price (might be too expensive to get him)
Clay Buchholz
Phil Hughes (health concerns)

It's always good to at least look at those players who are recovering from surgeries. Liriano is a good example of this. next year he will be at full strength for the whole season. Carpenter will likely fall in this category as well.

Starting tomorrow (maybe earlier) I'll resume the normal Buy Low/Sell High columns.

Trading deadline

I know that many leagues around there has a trading deadline which of course limits what you can do for the rest of the year. Depending on your league, you have a set number of keepers for next year, that you can carry over for a certain price. My main league for instance we can keep 1 hitter and 1 pitcher each year. The price we give up is dependent on when that player was drafted this year and how many years you have kept that player. The first year the player is kept you will have to sacrifice a pick 2 rounds higher and for every year after that you add an additional round. For instance, I have Jay Bruce and he was drafted in round 13 last year, so I will sacrifice an 11th round pick next year, 8th round year after that, 4th, 1st.

There are two general strategies for keepers, keeping those that will help you next year versus those players that will help you in year 3 or more. If you are going for next year, you have to keep the best hitter available at a round lower than what he normally goes for. For instance, if Josh Hamilton amazingly slid to round 12 (like he did in ours) you keep him even if you have AROD. That's where the value comes into play. I would not keep Russell Martin or McCann for example in round 3 or round 4 though because that's where you could pick them up anyways. I know Martin or McCann is the best at the position but if you like him that much you can draft him in round 3 again.

If you are going for years 3+ of owning a player, you need to look at players who are that many years away focusing on how raw a player is. Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Joey Votto are all examples. There is inherent risk in this as hitters may not end up any better than they are now. Bruce likely won't end up like this but Adam Jones, Joey Votto, Justin Upton are all examples of this. When focusing on these players you have to look at what will he cost at his peak or year before peak. Jay Bruce's true peak will likely begin in 2 years and he will cost me an 8th rounder. Once he costs me a 1st rounder, I will most likely not keep him.

Here is a list of rookies/young hitters who I think could be kept and who would be a couple years away from their peak. Those guys who are going to help you next year are all well known (Bruce) and cost you too much to get them. These guys below will help you somewhat next year but in the later years will really pay off.

Couple of years away

Joey Votto

Justin Upton

Stephen Drew

Adam Jones

Adam Lind

Jacoby Ellsbury

Matt Kemp

Carlos Gomez

Chase Headley

Ian Stewart

James Loney

Jeff Clement

Travis Snider

Tomorrow I will have a list of pitchers to focus on.

Examining what separates great pitchers from above average or average ones using Pitch FX

So this was planned for yesterday afternoon, but of course my computer started having problems so I couldn't upload it.

The question comes up often, at least in my mind, what makes an elite pitcher so good. Why is it that year in and year out, he can consistently be that much better than the other pitchers in the league? So of course, that’s what I set out to prove and it’s why I haven’t had a full update in a couple of days.

To start off, I think I need to explain how I broke down the pitchers into groups. I chose 3 groups (Elite, Above Average, and Average) and focused only on the #1 pitcher on each team according to CBS Sportsline. From here on out when I say an elite, above average, or average anything, it is not to be compared pitch to pitch. Those descriptions are for the groups that they belong to. I chose only right handed pitchers in order to simplify the graphs and also because some people have noted that many left handed pitchers have different mechanics than right handed pitchers. Thus, in order to make this as close to a uniform sample as possible, I chose only the right handed pitchers. I chose the groups based on the research by Derek Jacques using ERA, IP, W, L, BB, K as a basis for what category that pitcher is in.

Pitch Type	Category	End speed
CH	Above Average	76.826
	Average	76.362
	Elite	77.378
CU	Above Average	67.116
	Average	70.121
	Elite	72.487
FA	Above Average	82.761
	Average	83.652
	Elite	85.349
FC	Above Average	80.897
	Average	81.827
	Elite	81.627
FF	Above Average	80.343
	Average	82.5
	Elite	83.626
FS	Above Average	81.067
	Average	74.5
	Elite	78.182
SI	Above Average	84.797
	Average	79.417
	Elite	83.08
SL	Above Average	76.086
	Average	78.027
	Elite	77.772

You can see above that an elite fastball is at least 2 MPH faster than the other groups giving them a definitive advantage when compared to others. Interestingly, the average has a higher end fastball speed than the above average ones. The key though is comparing this speed to the end speed of the off-speed/breaking pitches. The difference between an average changeup and his fastball is about 6 MPH while an elite pitcher’s is almost 8 MPH. For a major league hitter this is a huge difference, especially when located well. The same differences show up again with the slider vs fastball comparison. An elite difference is about 8 MPH, an above average difference is 6 MPH, and an average pitcher difference is only 5 MPH. To give you an example of how much of a difference this is to MLB hitters, an elite fastball reaches the plate in about .48 seconds while an average one reaches it in .49 seconds. For every hundredth of a second, it equals 6 inches less distance the elite pitcher gives to a hitter. This hundredth of a second is the equivalent of 6 extra inches to recognize the pitch.

The difference from changeup to fastball is greater. An elite pitcher has about a 3.2 foot advantage over the hitter with the speed difference. An average pitcher only has a 2.7 foot advantage. That is quite a difference. Imagine the difference of seeing the ball all the way to the bat compared to blinking your eyes at the end while trying to hit the ball.

There are two other things that really make an elite pitcher as good as he is, controlling his pitches and getting good movement on them. The next 3 graphs give different views, one from the side, one from top and one from the catcher’s point of view. They are broken down by pitch with each category of pitcher color coded. We’ll review each of the perspectives separately. We will also at times be referring to the speed chart above.

Catcher Perspective

Starting off with the catcher’s perspective, the movement on the fastballs of the elite group and the above average group are basically the same. Remember the difference in speed though, close to 2.6 MPH. The average pitching group appears to be slightly more vertical than the other 2 groups even though it is skewed over to the right. The curveball of the elite and above average group again, match up almost exactly. The average curveball approximates this as well. The curveball speeds are also somewhat telling but slightly intriguing as well. The average group curveball and the elite group curveball have basically the same speed difference (13 MPH) from the fastball, while the above average group is slightly slower (15 MPH).

Most of the other pitches also approximate each other but there are two that really stand out. The changeup, specifically, differs greatly from each other. The elite group starts out matching the above average trajectory, but it continues to move towards the outside part of the plate. The above average and average group though seems to focus their changeups on the inside part of the plate. The average trajectory of the changeup is much more vertical than the other ones. The other quite difference pitch is the FF, which you can see has quite a bit more movement on it than the other groups.

Top View

This view is much better at viewing the side to side motion of the groups. All of the initial release points are at the top of the charts, so a right handed batter would be standing on the left hand side of the chart.

The elite group has much more movement horizontally than others especially on his fastball and changeup. The movement of an elite FF has really late break in the last 20 or so feet. All of the average pitches exhibits less horizontal movement from this view.

Side View

This will help show the amount of drop in a pitch from each group. Many scouts are much more concerned with the vertical movement of a pitch than horizontal movement. There are several pitches here which really show the differences between the groups. The change-up, sinker, and slider all exhibit more drop than their counterparts, especially the slider and the sinker.

Pitcher perspective

In this 3-D perspective, we can see the other perspectives coming together. We can see just how much more movement the elite pitchers have over the other 2 groups. Those pitches mentioned above really get brought to our attention by how far they cross over.

Summary

I think this helps to explain some of the differences between elite pitchers and others. Speed to a large degree cannot be taught. Movement to a certain degree cannot be taught either. To me, when evaluating players, if a pitcher exhibits these characteristics noted above consistently, they are much more likely to be an elite pitcher than those who don’t.

What to do with your trading deadline looming?

I already covered what to focus on for next year if you are in keeper leagues here, but what if you want or need to focus on this year. Your trading deadline is probably looming within the next week or two and you have to decide who will help you and who won't.

I mentioned before that at this point in the game counting stats are what matters. The rate stats are too hard to make up at this point in the game, even if you get a great rate hitter or pitcher from here on out. You likely have close to 3200-3600 AB so far so even 200-230 better AB isn't going to make a huge difference. Also, 100IP the rest of the way, isn't likely to effect your ERA and WHIP.

So we need to focus on HR,R,SB,RBI and K,S, and W.

I'll attack the pitching first. My league has a GS limit, so I try to pick up 2-3 long middle relievers (Chad Durbin and Chad Gaudin) who can help me with Ks and an occasional win while not effecting your limit. Gaudin and Durbin has gotten me 3 W, 38K, in a little over 40 IP. This hasn't cost me anything towards my limits and has actually helped me out in the rate stats too. I always have as many of these kind of guys in the lineup.

The other option for pitching is making a blockbuster and throwing away all your saves to get a stud pitcher, if saves can't really help that much. You have to look at how many points you'll gain from getting a guy that does well in Ks and Wins, than a guy who will help you with Saves. Try trading away your 3rd closer for a #3SP. Jair Jurrjens, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco all are in this group. If the other team needs saves or SB, this is a prime time to grab a couple of these guys.

For hitting, it's obviously a little bit easier. You have to find someone playing everyday and if he is better than what you have currently, you plug him in. The problem comes in that there aren't many players out there (at least on the wire) who are probably better than what you have. This is where trading your SP or a 3rd OF or both for an upgrade on the hitting side. If you need just power, Chris Davis, isn't too shaby a pickup, despite my worries about a little less HR/FB than what he's doing. The best guys to look for at this point are the 20/20 kind of guy. They are always undervalued by everyone because they don't have any 1 particular stat that they excel in. Another set to focus on are those that just got starting gigs because of trades. Guys like Corey Hart, Mike Cameron, Brandon Inge, Jayson Werth, Elijah Dukes, or even Brandon Moss if you are in a really deep league.

These are just a couple of options on this year. There are always other trades that could be made, but at this point it's not very feasible to pull of a major blockbuster. Everyone who thinks they have a shot will hold their binkies close to their chest. I would be willing to trade anyone who I think will make my team better and you should do the same. There are always trades to be made.

So Much goin on, so little time

After looking over the numbers this morning, there isn't much sticking out to me as to being able to buy low or sell high at this point. Add that to the Manny craziness and I don't think I'm going to have a high low recommendation. i do however have some strategy.

This is the point in the year that you know what kind of team you have. For instance, because of two major injuries (Ortiz and Posada) and one pitcher being sent down and never looked at again (Liriano) I'm mired in the limbo of 6th-10th place. The league leader coincidently is Troy from RotoSavants.com who has nearly twice as many points. While there is a chance I could move up to third, I highly doubt it will happen.

So that means you're either a buyer for this year or a seller this year in order to set yourself up for next year in keeper leagues. Sell your high priced players for some one who could end up helping you next year. Last year I traded Berkman and Andruw Jones for Sizemore and Lester. (stupidly I kept Clay Buchholz instead of Lester but that's another story).

So who should you target for next year?

C
2B
SS
OF

We all know that there is a lack of depth in hitting talent up the middle. Most likely the teams in contention right now will have the top hitting catchers and/or 2b. But for SS you could try to get Peralta who is quietly having a very good season at the plate. Another player is Stephen Drew who is now over the 1000AB threshold in the MLB, has raised his BA close to 30 points in July and has seemed to have turned the corner.

In the OF, surprisingly there really isn't that much talent that you would target for next year. You could go after youngsters like Jay Bruce or Matt Kemp in the multi-year leagues as the name players are either overpriced right now or on the first place teams.

If you do decide to trade for SP, I have one rule of thumb. Never trade for guys who seem to be taking the next step. There are too many instances of guys who should take the step that haven't. And there are too many surprises like Dempster, Duchscherer, and Cliff Lee for you to overpay for next year's pitching keeper.

I'm working on a great Pitch FX project which I hope will really be able to show the differences across a couple pitchers. It should be up later on tonight.

General 2nd Half Strategy

In lieu of specific recommendations today, I want to focus on general 2nd half strategies. Here are a few main ones:

1. Your rate stats are not going to move much from here on out. For typical roto leagues, BA, OBP, ERA, WHIP are all unlikely to move very far because of the sheer amount of volume that has already been played. Therefore, points are going to be very hard to come by unless there is one big bunch that is already there. The only way for you to make a big jump in one of these categories is if a leader gets someone who suffers in one of these areas and you get someone who excels. Therefore, be careful when trading for points in one of these categories.
2. Counting stats on the other hand are going to move. This is where you can make up a lot of ground in all of those counting categories. If you are dead last in OBP, instead of trying to trade for a better OBP, trade one of your high OBP guys (Youkilis) for someone who gets a lot of counting stats (Crawford). This will maximize your stats and give you a fighting chance.
3. We are at the point in the season where a 6-8 week injury basically means the season. Do not hold onto the player and suck up a bench spot. Replace them because even when they get back they are less likely to be productive than before.
4. When buying low or selling high from here on out it's important to note that we're at the point where we an start to believe the player is what he is producing. Even though Cliff Lee insanely lucky this year so far, that may just continue. Keep that in your mind when trading and even when listening to my recommendations.
5. Finally, if you are in a keeper league, be on the lookout for sellers or buyers. For instance, if you have a Matt LaPorta or someone of that caliber, you can sell high on them for this year and maybe help you team win this year. That last place team may want to pack it in and it's up to you to scavenge the good pieces from the team.

Those are some general strategies that you need to think about from this point forward. Thanks for everyone who has read my articles so far and tomorrow the normal posts will begin again.

Long live the King (sorta)

Many a fantasy owner’s dreams are shattered by elevated expectations and taking on an inappropriate level of risk for the amount of reward. King Felix probably falls into this category, which unfortunately also includes me. Felix has the stuff that might be better than 98% of the pitchers in the majors. The question is whether or not he will put it together.

After his last start I want to see what’s different from his good start from his bad starts based on the graphs by Dan Brooks at Brooksbaseball.net.

First we’ll break down his good start from 5/31 (click on the image to zoom in)

To start off with look at how tight his release point is. It is very centralized around -2 horizontal and 6 vertical. Having this centralized allows the pitcher to keep from getting injured. Repeatable mechanics is key for injury prevention. Repeatable mechanics is also key in keeping the hitters from getting an advantage. Throwing the ball from the same arm slot regardless of pitch doesn’t allow the hitter to get a cheating glance at the grip.

Next we’ll look at the strike zone plot. Notice how there is absolutely no pitches dead center of the zone. There are pitches that are plenty in the zone but never any that are dead center. He kept his fastball low and inside to right handed batters and mixing that with the amount of movement on his fastball does not allow the hitters to hit a straight ball.

Let’s compare these to one of the bad starts. This one is on 5/3/08 against the Yankees.

He basically had no control over any pitch that day. All of pitches ended up as a hittable pitch that day. Many fastballs were in the hitter’s zone down the middle so to speak. His movement on a change-up and a fastball were pretty much exactly the same. It was just at a different (slower) speed. Compare that to the good start where every pitch has a certain amount of movement and they didn’t really overlap. Also look at his release point. It is much more spread out giving the hitters a decent look at it right away. To good hitters, this is basically telling them what pitch is coming and saying go ahead and hit it. Finally, the vertical break to speed is also giving away signs that he wasn’t going to have much luck. His slider and his change broke the same amount for the speed that was thrown. So basically his change was his slider and vice versa.

So now that the technical mumbo jumbo is out of the way, what does this mean to you, the fantasy owner. I think it’s one of those cases where what you see is what you get for the next few years. He’s going to be a #2 Starter for most teams here on out and you have to plan accordingly. I think that there is nothing here to say he is injured because otherwise his plots would be deteriorating slowly, or quickly, depending on the situation. He will have his amazing games but he will also have the blow ups. There is a good possibility that as he gets more innings under his belt, he will improve as a pitcher and not just be a thrower.

Buy Low/ Sell High ---May 31st

Buy Low: Nick Swisher

Key Stats:

G	AB	R		H	2B	3B		HR	RBI		SB	BB	SO		BA	OBP
53	182	25		37	6	1		4	14		1	34	45		0.203	0.33
BABIP			BB/SO				P/PA			GB/FB				HR/FB
0.248			0.76				4.49			0.961				7.84%

Swisher has been a bit unlucky this year in both the BABIP department and in the HR/FB department. In 2006 he had a .287 BABIP and a HR/FB % of 23.81%. In 2007 he had a BABIP of .308 and a HR/FB% of 16.54%. Most likely these numbers will return to his normal as the year goes on. As you can see he is below what he normally does in almost every category. As time goes on and Quentin continues his hot streak, the hot air in Chicago will help lead to greater power numbers.

Swisher, Nick RF CHW for Perez, Odalis SP WAS

Swisher, Nick RF CHW for Pierzynski, A.J. C CHW

Swisher, Nick RF CHW for Rasner, Darrell SP NYY

Sell High: Ryan Dempster

Key Stats: 

W	L	SV		IP	H	ER		HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
6	2	0		70	48	20		4	29	56		2.60	1.10
BABIP			K/BB				PTO%				QuickERA
0.227			1.930				28.2%				4.268

Well as you can see here Dempster has been extremely lucky so far. The only good peripheral number is the PTO% and even that doesn’t support the numbers that he currently has. His BABIP is ound to increase which means a higher WIP, ERA, etc. Try to move him ASAP.

Dempster, Ryan RP CHC for Markakis, Nick RF BAL

Dempster, Ryan RP CHC for Fukudome, Kosuke RF CHC

Dempster, Ryan RP CHC for Putz, J.J. RP SEA

Matsuzaka Fatigue Breakdown

Surprise surprise Matsuzaka had to be removed from the game the other day because of "shoulder fatigue" and he is set to get an MRI back here in Boston. Something isn't right, I think. For a guy who has this great stuff to be suffering from fatigue alone is highly unlikely given how much he used to throw in Japan during his starts and in between. In fact after last year's tailing off, the Red Sox altered his throwing program in order to keep him fresh for the whole year.

Injuries to the throwing arm, and especially the shoulder, are difficult to pick up on until they are there. One of the best indicators though is loss of control even if the injury is not known to the pitcher at the time, think of stress fractures or microinstability.

Summary statistics from 2007:

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
4.40	.556	8.8	3.5	1.10	2.51

and now this year:

ERA	Win Pct.	K per 9	BB per 9	HR per 9	K/BB
2.58	1.000	6.9	5.7	.34	1.21

Sometimes all you have to do is look at the K/9 and the K/BB ratio to determine whether or not something is wrong. From last year to this year, his k/9 and his K/BB has dropped off significiantly. Something isn't right with his shoulder. Pure speculation is that there is a muscle imbalance in his posterior shoulder as well as tightness in his posterior capsule (some of which is normal for pitchers) which is leading him to release the ball differently than before, resulting in his loss of command.

To keep it simple, I'm just going to compare his summary of all his starts from and compare them to 2008 in order to see if this is correct. Using Josh Kalk's players cards from baseball.bornbybits.com







Now on to 2008:




So what can we learn from this? Is anything different? First off his release point is a lot more towards 0. It looks to be mostly between -2 to -3 last year and this year it looks to be -3 to -4. This could mean he's coming more from the side, dropping his arm angle down in an attempt to take some pressure/pain away from the shoulder. It is similar to what John Smoltz is trying to do right now in Atlanta. It doesn't solve any problem though. It is merely a remedy for a symptom (pain) and not for the condition (whatever underlying pathology it is).

If you look at his movement you can tell even more glaring differences. His movement isn't there on many pitches, especially his change. This year it is basically coming in just like a fast ball except a little slower. His change-up in particular isn't moving as much as in 2007. It has more horizontal movement than vertical movement. MLB pitching relies on two things, location and vertical movement only. Horizontal movement of a pitch means that if you have a mistake pitch with your location, instead of being in on the hands; it is on the barrel of the bat. Now with vertical movement, if you have a mistake pitch with your location, instead of it being in on your hands it is at your feet in the dirt.

That is the key distinction of why scouts much prefer "break" than "movement". Break usually refers to the vertical component of movement while movement refers to the horizontal.

All of this points to something is wrong with his shoulder. Could it be something minor? Of course it can, but it will likely require a DL stint for probably close to 30 days if only to keep him in check. He has been known to try and "throw" his way back from an injury and rehab that way back in Japan but obviously that hasn't exactly worked out perfectly well here.

Buy Low/Sell High (May 27th, 2008)

Buy Low: Randy Johnson

Key Stats:

W	L	SV		IP	H	ER		HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
4	1	0		44.7	47	20		5	12	47		4.03	1.321
BABIP			SO/BB				PTO%				QERA
0.341			3.92				31.33%				3.245979

Am I expecting the Randy Johnson of around 2000 to suddenly return? The answer is definitely no, but at times he can take it to vintage Randy and strike out 10 like he did last week. His BABIP is a little elevated so that should come down and help get his WHIP to under 1.30 but the thing I like most is his SO/BB ratio and his PTO%. These are both excellent numbers that show that he still has his command and control and can make people miss. Having a higher PTO% also means that he is getting hitters out more efficiently and can thus go into games deeper. You can get him for:

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Jackson, Conor 1B ARI

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Gallagher, Sean RP CHC

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Francis, Jeff SP COL

Sell High: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Key Stats: 

W	L	IP		H	ER	HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
8	0	60		41	16	4	38	53		2.4	1.317
BABIP			SO/BB			PTO%			QERA
0.236			1.39			27.16%			5.443318

I write this watching the Daisuke already give up 3 runs to the Mariners and I knew it was only a matter of time before the Daisuke love hit the wall. He is walking an astronomical number of hitters. For someone who supposedly has great stuff to have a SO/BB ratio of less than 1.5 is disgraceful. Aces do not have this low a ratio no matter what. His PTO% or dominance is also low for what “aces” supposedly are, which come in around 34-35%. His BABIP of .236 just goes to show you how lucky his ERA has been as his qERA is 3 runs higher!!!!!!

Here’s what you can get for him and do it now:

Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Suzuki, Ichiro CF SEA

Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Holliday, Matt LF COL (although he is hurt currently)

Kotchman, Casey 1B ANA and Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY