Buy Low/Sell High June 28th (Nolasco, Litsch)

Buy Low: Ricky Nolasco

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.283	2.310	27.7%	4.73	-0.682	15.89	4.64
2007	0.343	1.22	24.61%	5.77	-0.294	16.38	5.42
2006	0.319	2.41	27.61%	4.54	0.284	15.99	4.54

Ricky’s numbers above are skewed by the horrible starts in the beginning of the year. Lately (the last 10 starts) he has been amazing going 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA and almost a 3-1 K:BB ratio and a WHIP a little above 1.15. I waited too long to get him and am paying for it dearly now. Florida is playing like they always do, surprisingly good, so he has a good chance to continue this.

Meche, Gil SP KC and Nolasco, Ricky SP FLA for Banks, Josh SP SD

Nolasco, Ricky SP FLA for Rauch, Jon RP WAS

Nolasco, Ricky SP FLA for Sonnanstine, Andy SP TB

Sell High: Jesse Litsch

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.284	3.470	27.6%	4.27	-0.448	14.77	4.51
2007	0.279	1.39	24.45%	5.28	-1.467	15.95	4.94
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

Jesse has a great run in the middle of the year but since he has been up and down. The only good metric above is the K/BB ratio. Everything else is average at best and a FIP and qERA of above 4 is not very promising. After his latest good outing, I would look to move him.

Feldman, Scott RP TEX and Litsch, Jesse SP TOR for Drew, J.D. RF BOS

Litsch, Jesse SP TOR for Hudson, Tim SP ATL

Lilly, Ted SP CHC and Litsch, Jesse SP TOR for Holliday, Matt LF COL

Buy Low/Sell High June 27th (Pena, Saunders)

Buy Low: Carlos Pena

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.195	3.92	2.27	0.925	20.75%
2007	0.219	4.00	3.48	1.099	38.02%
2006	0.258	3.65	4.00	1.571	14.29%

His BABIP is extremely low, even compared to his career average which is largely in part to the amount of fly balls he hit. He has become more aggressive in the beginning part of the year and with him coming off the DL, this is a prime time to get him.

Pena, Carlos 1B TB for Masterson, Justin SP BOS

Pena, Carlos 1B TB for Lee, Cliff SP CLE

Pena, Carlos 1B TB for Murphy, David RF TEX

Sell High: Joe Saunders

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.244	1.960	27.5%	4.83	-1.802	14.44
2007	0.334	2.03	25.94%	4.71	-0.272	16.52
2006	0.307	1.76	27.08%	4.72	-0.005	16.41

Joe sort of came out of nowhere and right now has 11 Wins that has helped many a fantasy teams. His ERA is a hell of a lot better than his qERA and his FIP of 4.55. He could keep this up for a little longer but his command isn’t good enough to keep up this ERA. You might want to hold onto him for a little longer but if you get a great package then you should sell.

Jackson, Conor 1B ARI and Saunders, Joe SP ANA for Guerrero, Vladimir RF ANA

Hill, Aaron 2B TOR and Saunders, Joe SP ANA for Halladay, Roy SP TOR

Huff, Aubrey 1B BAL and Saunders, Joe SP ANA for Howard, Ryan 1b PHI

Buy Low/Sell High Summary

My bi-weekly High/Low summary provided me with some surprises about the numbers.

First the Hitters:

	Buy	Sell
Hits	205	103
HR	36	14
AB	716	363
PA	817	416
OBA	0.353	0.361
BABIP	0.301	0.322
AB/HR	19.89	25.93
OPS	0.864	0.823
BB/SO	0.648	0.545
HR/FB	20.00%	20.59%

Well the numbers show that rate wise they are pretty similar, which kinda of shocked me. I like my overall numbers but again I thought that I did better than that. Looking it over I remembered I recommended Berkman and Uggla as a sell. Taking the those numbers out (I know, not really possible but it keeps my sanity.)

Buy		Sell
Hits	205	95
HR	36	4
AB	714	268
PA	815	551
OBA	0.360	0.227
BABIP	0.302	0.397
AB/HR	19.83	67.00
OPS	0.872	0.589
BB/SO	6.592	7.459
HR/FB	20.00%	8.70%

Quite a huge difference than the first chart. Eventually Berkman and Uggla will come back down to earth and if they don’t you would still be ok if you got a good haul for these guys. The numbers above would be even better if the BABIP wasn’t so high.

Now onto the pitchers:

	Buy	Sell
IP	136	212.7
Outs	408	638
Hits	158	216
Walks	58	78
WHIP	1.59	1.38
FIP	3.13	3.03
Strikeouts	105	153
k/9	6.95	6.47
K/BB	1.81	1.96
AB	560	852
BABIP	0.321	0.273

Another case of my Sells having better numbers than my Buys. This is starting to piss me off. Looking at it, it’s really just Dempster and Masterson killing me. Masterson has no business dominating like this and neither does Dempster

Dempster up to date:

BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	QuickERA	ERA Dif	P/IP
0.238	2.240	29.0%	4.03	-1.403	16.07
0.279	1.83	30.11%	4.47	0.265	15.44
0.324	1.86	26.67%	4.28	0.520	17.95

Masterson YTD

BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	QuickERA	ERA Dif	P/IP
0.207	1.520	29.0%	4.79	-1.358	15.62

So defying all logic, they are still getting great results. Their ERA should both be close to 1.40 higher than what it is.

For the sake of my sanity, removing those two and once again everything falls in line with my projections.

	Buy	Sell
IP	136	176.3
Outs	408	529
Hits	158	181
Walks	58	63
WHIP	1.59	1.38
FIP	3.13	3.05
Strikeouts	105	120
k/9	6.95	6.12
K/BB	1.81	1.90
AB	566	710
BABIP	0.317	0.271

That looks to be a little more like it. The deflated BABIP (at the very bottom of the normal range) really appears to helping that group out. Everyone should start to regress to where they are pretty soon and when that happens, I’ll be able to smile for once.