So Much goin on, so little time

After looking over the numbers this morning, there isn't much sticking out to me as to being able to buy low or sell high at this point. Add that to the Manny craziness and I don't think I'm going to have a high low recommendation. i do however have some strategy.

This is the point in the year that you know what kind of team you have. For instance, because of two major injuries (Ortiz and Posada) and one pitcher being sent down and never looked at again (Liriano) I'm mired in the limbo of 6th-10th place. The league leader coincidently is Troy from RotoSavants.com who has nearly twice as many points. While there is a chance I could move up to third, I highly doubt it will happen.

So that means you're either a buyer for this year or a seller this year in order to set yourself up for next year in keeper leagues. Sell your high priced players for some one who could end up helping you next year. Last year I traded Berkman and Andruw Jones for Sizemore and Lester. (stupidly I kept Clay Buchholz instead of Lester but that's another story).

So who should you target for next year?

C
2B
SS
OF

We all know that there is a lack of depth in hitting talent up the middle. Most likely the teams in contention right now will have the top hitting catchers and/or 2b. But for SS you could try to get Peralta who is quietly having a very good season at the plate. Another player is Stephen Drew who is now over the 1000AB threshold in the MLB, has raised his BA close to 30 points in July and has seemed to have turned the corner.

In the OF, surprisingly there really isn't that much talent that you would target for next year. You could go after youngsters like Jay Bruce or Matt Kemp in the multi-year leagues as the name players are either overpriced right now or on the first place teams.

If you do decide to trade for SP, I have one rule of thumb. Never trade for guys who seem to be taking the next step. There are too many instances of guys who should take the step that haven't. And there are too many surprises like Dempster, Duchscherer, and Cliff Lee for you to overpay for next year's pitching keeper.

I'm working on a great Pitch FX project which I hope will really be able to show the differences across a couple pitchers. It should be up later on tonight.

Buy Low/Sell High July 18th (Gio Gonzalez/Dustin Pedroia)

Buy Low: Gio Gonzalez

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
2007	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

Normally I don’t recommend players who have very little to no time in the majors but like I said counting stats is easier to make up points than rate stats in the 2^nd half. Gio has the strikeout potential to really help your team in the 2^nd half with the trade of Joe Blanton. Gio has been averaging a k/9 over 9 and this could definitely help your team. The only slight problem is he hasn’t been named a candidate to fill the rotation spot. Still the time to buy low is now because once he does get named his value will skyrocket.

Gonzalez, Gio SP OAK for Lilly, Ted SP CHC

Gonzalez, Gio SP OAK for Mills, Beau 1B CLE

Gonzalez, Gio SP OAK for Greene, Khalil SS SD

Sell High: Dustin Pedroia

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.318	3.77	0.69	1.571	8.57%
2007	0.336	3.81	1.12	1.732	6.50%
2006	0.192	4.02	1.00	2.667	13.33%

He has had quite a run the first half of the season despite seeing a lot less pitches. His BABIP is inflated and he has a lot less BB than previously. True there isn’t a lot of 2b help around but I think he will regress some. There is a chance he could continue once Ortiz comes back but it Pedroia has such a good value right now I would look at trading him and then picking up someone who would give you 90% of Pedroia.

Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS for Bruce, Jay CF CIN

Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS for Roberts, Brian 2B BAL

Pedroia, Dustin 2B BOS for Uggla, Dan 2B FLA and Wakefield, Tim SP BOS

Buy Low/Sell High July 17th (Freddy Sanchez/Ryan Ludwick)

Buy Low: Freddy Sanchez

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.225	3.55	0.26	1.718	5.88%
2007	0.308	3.39	0.42	1.323	6.71%
2006	0.357	3.43	0.60	1.316	3.80%

Freddy’s season has been rough in the average department and that is largely because of the BABIP. This is weird though because he is seeing more pitches while walking less. He is being less aggressive initially and getting a few strikes on him. Courtesy of baseball reference.com he swung at only 27% of 1^st pitches while last year it was 33% and in 2006 it was 30%. He had a shoulder injury earlier in the year so I do have a slight worry that the shoulder is what is causing him to have the BABIP but it’s so much lower I expect a regression regardless.

Sanchez, Freddy 2B PIT for Looper, Braden SP STL and
Michaels, Jason LF PIT

Sanchez, Freddy 2B PIT for Buck, John C KC

Sanchez, Freddy 2B PIT for Thames, Marcus LF DET

Sell High: Ryan Ludwick

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.254	3.78	0.48	0.711	25.30%
2007	0.260	3.87	0.36	1.304	20.29%
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

I’m not saying it’ll be easy but now would be the time to get rid of Ludwick. He’s completely changed his GB/FB ratio and has spiked the HR/FB%. Everything else is in line with his previous career numbers. You might not be able to get as good a haul as a month ago but you can still get a decent haul in return. Another thing to remember is that he is 30 years old and may be getting that one semi-spike season. When he does regress it’s going to be quick and painful as evidenced by his June numbers.

Ludwick, Ryan OF STL for Hernandez, Felix SP SEA

Ludwick, Ryan OF STL and Ryan, B.J. RP TOR for Hamilton, Josh CF TEX

Ludwick, Ryan OF STL for Beckett, Josh SP BOS and
Guillen, Jose RF KC

Buy Low/Sell High --May 30th

Buy Low: Andrew Miller

Key Stats:

W	L	SV		IP	H	ER		HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
4	4	0		55.3	70	34		4	23	46		5.53	1.681
BABIP			K/BB				PTO%				QuickERA
0.379			2.000				25.4%				4.595

One of the prizes in the Miguel Cabrera sweepstakes, Andrew started off the year extremely poorly. He didn’t have good command nor did he have any luck. His lack of luck has carried on through the season to the tune of .379 BABIP. Very very very few pitchers ever end up with a BABIP that high and those that do usually end up in the minors. I highly doubt this will happen. Andrew is simply too good. His qERA is a full run better than what it is and if you take all those extra hits from the BABIP and factor in having to throw extra pitches because of them, his WHIP is likely around 1.50. Still horrendous but in the last 4 games he has given up 26 baserunners in 23.3 IP while striking out 25. So including his latest start in which he got bombed his WHIP in the last 4 games is 1.15, his K/BB is 3.125, and his K/9 is 9.65. Those are the numbers that you have to look at and those numbers will help any fantasy team.

You can get him hopefully on the wire but if not you can look at these possible trades:

Miller, Andrew SP FLA for Encarnacion, Edwin 3B CIN

Miller, Andrew SP FLA for Hawpe, Brad RF COL

Miller, Andrew SP FLA for Sanchez, Jonathan O. RP SF

Sell High: Dan Uggla

Key Stats: 

G	AB	R		H	2B	3B		HR	RBI		SB	BB	SO		BA	OBP
51	192	41		59	19	1		16	38		2	23	58		0.307	0.39
BABIP			BB/SO				P/PA			GB/FB				HR/FB
0.364			0.40				4.10			0.772				28.07%

Ok look I know this might be sacrilegious to some who like to ride the streaks but let me ask you this. How long do you think he can keep up those stats. How many hitters can hit 28% of all FB for HR or walk as little as he does or have such a high BABIP play out over the season. Personally I don’t. Hitters tend to regress to their career levels over the year. Historically his BABIP was .292 in 2006 and .286 in 2007. To jump that much and keep it over the whole season is insane. And just for the sake of thoroughness, his HR/FB was 15.9% in 2006 and 18.3% in 2007. Great streak right now yes, but life-changing approach at the plate. No. Here’s what you can get for him:

Uggla, Dan 2B FLA for Upton, B.J. CF TB

Uggla, Dan 2B FLA for Beckett, Josh SP BOS

Uggla, Dan 2B FLA for Santana, Johan SP NYM

Uggla, Dan 2B FLA for Papelbon, Jonathan RP BOS