Buy Low/Sell High July 12th (A.J. Burnett, Francisco Rodrigez)

Weekend Edition: I have family in town this weekend so I won’t be able to provide updates on Saturday and Sunday. I will provide a weekend edition though.

Buy Low: A.J. Burnett

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.337	2.110	29.1%	4.10	1.132	17.13	3.75
2007	0.262	2.67	32.05%	3.34	0.415	15.99	4.09
2006	0.317	3.03	29.62%	3.64	0.340	16.00	3.69

According to the regular numbers, A.J. is having a horrible year so far with an ERA of over 5 and a WHIP north of 1.5. His FIP though is only 3.75 so he has been extremely unlucky in this regard. The 17 pitches per inning is a little scary but I think this is mainly due to his lack of luck. He has the ability to absolutely dominate the game if his mind is there and chances are he will be traded to the NL East, possibly Philly. If he goes to Philly he won’t have to face a very tough offense in the whole division. During the trading play it up that you want the strikeouts only so you don’t have to overpay for him.

Burnett, A.J. SP TOR for Winn, Randy RF

Burnett, A.J. SP TOR for Rodriguez, Wandy SP HOU

Burnett, A.J. SP TOR for DeJesus, David CF KC

Sell High: Francisco Rodriguez

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.228	1.580	28.8%	4.85	-2.370	17.00	3.83
2007	0.309	2.65	31.83%	3.16	-0.352	17.83	2.67
2006	0.288	3.50	34.13%	2.78	-1.046	16.66	2.78

Yes I know he’s having a great season, so far historical. Yes I know he’s carried your teams saves right now. But that doesn’t matter. It only matters what he does from here on out. There is a reason why records aren’t broken too often in baseball (at least non-HR records), it’s because it takes a truly remarkable season. Everything above points to someone who has been extremely lucky this year despite having control problems. Even the kindest version of ERA comparison for him is his FIP at 3.83 or over a full 1.50 more than his current ERA. Trading away a closer is sacrilegious to some but if you can get a “lesser” one in return then it will soften the blow. Sell Rodriguez and x for y plus someone of a slightly less level (street, wagner).

Rodriguez, Francisco RP ANA for Bruce, Jay CF CIN and Lyon, Brandon RP ARI and Pence, Hunter CF HOU

Griffey, Ken RF CIN and Rodriguez, Francisco RP ANA for Kazmir, Scott SP TB

Guillen, Carlos 1B DET and Rodriguez, Francisco RP ANA for Howard, Ryan 1B PHI