Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Buy Low/Sell High July 9th (Clay Buchholz/Oliver Perez)

Buy Low: Clay Buchholz

Key Stats:

Pitcher:

BABIP

K/BB

PTO%

qERA

ERA Dif

P/IP

FIP

Hitter:

BABIP

P/PA

BB/SO

GB/FB

HR/FB

2008

0.365

2.150

28.2%

4.02

1.509

17.85

3.58

2007

0.259

2.20

34.39%

4.07

-2.477

14.36

2.72

2006

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Clay has been named the starter instead of Masterson on Friday who is being turned into a middle reliever which give me another win in my Sell High point when I recommended selling him. Clay has been dominating in AAA over 8 starts with an ERA of under 2 and a WHIP under 1.20 on top of a k/9 over 9. During his time up here he was unlucky as evidenced by his BABIP and comparing his ERA, qERA, and FIP. His FIP is 2 runs better than his ERA. The only thing he needs to really work on is his efficiency and his K/BB ratio, which it sounds like he was doing quite well in AAA. Right now this is what Buchholz is going for:

Buchholz, Clay SP BOS for Ludwick, Ryan OF STL

Buchholz, Clay SP BOS and Upton, Justin RF ARI for Francoeur, Jeff RF ATL and Olsen, Scott SP FLA

Buchholz, Clay SP BOS and Hawpe, Brad RF COL and
Weeks, Rickie 2B MIL for Francisco, Ben OF CLE and
Wood, Kerry RP CHC

Sell High: Oliver Perez

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:

BABIP

K/BB

PTO%

qERA

ERA Dif

P/IP

FIP

Hitter:

BABIP

P/PA

BB/SO

GB/FB

HR/FB

2008

0.264

1.520

26.6%

5.26

-0.637

17.60

5.35

2007

0.278

2.20

29.15%

4.35

-0.787

17.03

4.21

2006

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This one may be a little tougher than most to pull off due to his history but if you can pull it off it’ll be very valueable for your team, both in terms of production from what you get in return but also not having the bad starts that Perez would give you. Plus his value may not be any higher after his last two starts if he starts becoming inconsistent again. Nothing above is good for Perez this year but he has given a couple good starts against good hitting teams so his value might be high. It’d be worth it to throw it out there in your league if you’re in a deep league. Here are three trades from CBS leagues in the past 3 days that I think are pretty indicative of what his value is, plus you can remove the risk on your end as well.

Lester, Jon SP BOS and Perez, Oliver SP NYM for Hamels, Cole SP PHI

Burnett, A.J. SP TOR and Perez, Oliver SP NYM for Lackey, John SP ANA

Blake, Casey 3B CLE and Perez, Oliver SP NYM for Pena, Carlos 1B TB

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