Buy Low Sell High

After looking around several different blogs, I noticed that many blogs are going to tell you what players to pick up. I'm going to focus on a Buy Low/Sell High format for those 3-12 rounders that can make or break your season. On top of everything else, I will still be continuing to evaluate pitch F/X data on pitchers that as I deem necessary.

So with the first installment of Buy Low/Sell High I focused on Jason Giambi and John Lannan.

Buy Low: Jason Giambi

Key Stats:

G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS+

37 113    17   23   6  0   8   21   1  1  24  17  .204  .363  .469 .832  129

BABIP	BB/SO	P/PA	GB/FB	HR/FB
0.170	1.41	3.84	0.775	20.00%

Jason has very quietly begun to produce again. His BABIP is incredibly low but his OPS+ is above league average and would be very useful to most teams as a spot starter or Utility guy. He’s more selective at the plate than since his days in Oakland but he’s seeing slightly less pitches per Plate appearance than years past. Even though his GB/FB ration is higher than it has been in several years his HR/FB ratio is exactly in line to what he has been in the past when healthy. So this means that when his BABIP climbs, most likely his GB/FB ratio will decrease and more of the balls he puts into play will end up over the fence. He is an excellent candidate to bounce back and I would target him in all AL-leagues and most mixed league formats, especially those that use OBP instead of BA.

Sell High: John Lannan

Key Stats: W   L   IP     H    R   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP

           4   4   53.0   57   21   20   4   19   34   3.40  4.21  124  1.434

BABIP	SO/BB	PTO%	QERA
.308	1.79	26.3%	4.531

John has had a great run at it so far with his ERA but that is really it. His BABIP is right in line with what it should be but his ERA is over a full run better than what it should be. His PTO% (ease of outs, aka dominance)really isn’t in line with others at his ERA and his command of 1.79 isn’t good at all. Good pitchers who have success has a K/BB ratio over 2 and a PTO% over 28%. He has been getting lots of attention on ESPN and other news programs recently and he should be able to net you a decent #3 OF or CI in return.