Buy Low -- Robinson Cano

Inspired by a trade that recently went down in my league, I decided to write about Robinson Cano and how he needs to be picked up immediately or traded for rather quickly.

The trade in question (thank god it wasn't involving me) was like this:

Team 1 gives up Robinson Cano and Jeff Francoeur

Team 2 gives up Shawn Marcum and Kelly Johnson

Team 1 supposedly needed pitching help and Francoeur was on his bench (behind Hideki Matsui).

When I read this I just couldn't believe this trade just happened. Team 1 has got to be one of the more bone-headed players there is. After this went down, I had to explain that Marcum's BABIP was a ridiculously low .183. He said well he'll ride his lucky streak as long as possible then.

So this brings me to Cano. I'm surprised Cano was involved since Team 1 is a Yankee fan but regardless he said that Cano has been atrocious. So let's be objective (instead of my Yankee hatred by my Red Sox blood) and look at how "bad" Cano has been according to team 1.

First I love BABIP, it's quick and easy and Cano's is a paltry .206 this year. Over the past 3 years he has average a BABIP of .338. Based on this alone I expect Cano's stats to improve.

Second he is seeing more pitches per plate appearance (#/PA) than ever before. He is up to 3.55 pitches per PA after improving every year he has been in the league. Expectation: more selective at plate

Third, he's taking more walks than before. His BB/SO ratio is up to 0.53. While this isn't very good at all in general, it represents a great improvement from his 0.24 and 0.33 years early on. Expectation: More selective plate appearances

The fourth major thing I looked at was his GB/FB ratio, which is currently at 1.51. This is well below his 3 year average of 1.68. Less FB = less HR. Less HR = less RBI, runs, and TB.
Expectation: More FB and more HR.

The last thing I look at is his lineup that he's in. AROD has been out. Posada has been out. Giambi has been atrocious. Damon, Matsui, and Jeter all haven't been the same players from year's past. Once everyone starts to get back healthy and the summertime comes in it's warmer weather, I expect Cano to get more opportunities to drive players in and also be driven in.

So let's see. Every single thing points to Cano improving from this point forward.

I tried explaining this methodology to Team #1 owner but some owners just aren't willing to put in the extra work. Trade analysis is hard work, especially when it comes to looking at your team objectively. You absolutely must look past the traditional counting stats to see whether or not a guy is simply unlucky at the moment and waiting for the hits to start coming.

Remember what you would have thought about David Ortiz a couple weeks ago and look at his stats now.