My goals with this blog

First I apologize for not writing as many posts as I have hoped when I first began. My career as an athletic trainer for a DIII college in the Northeast means that no schedule is ever concrete. So after many 60 hour weeks in a row, on to address some of my main goals with my writing.

My main goal is to help provide information about this wonderful and beautiful game we call baseball and provide advice and insight into applying it to fantasy baseball. My understanding of the game, both as an ex-player and as a clinician dealing with baseball players everyday, allows me very unique perspective. I want to look at strategical aspects and technological advances that help everyone understand the game and especially it's injury/health implications. And finally and probably most importantly, I want to have fun.

With that I hope everyone enjoys the reading.

Basic Strategy vs Investing Strategy

After a very busy couple of weeks with work, it felt so good to be able to sit down and really start preparing for my most competitive draft in a few weeks. Every single person in the draft has a different strategy and then also has a strategy to counter everyone else's strategy. Today, I'm going to discuss the strategy that I have found to work best, both in real life and in fantasy sports.

I'm here to talk about a draft prep strategy based on stock investing. Now, yes everyone has an opinion on stock investment strategy but this one minimizes losses while maximizing profits. This involves 3 main points:

1. The most well known and talked about stocks often only produce minimal to moderate gains with a high degree of risk.
   
2. Small cap stocks (under $100 million) are too speculative to base your portfolio on.
3. The best value and where the best profits with minimal risk are in the $100 -400 million range.

You might think that this a common sense approach but let me apply it to fantasy baseball (which is why you're here).

1. The most well known players will be drafted in the first 3-4 rounds and will only produce what is expected for minimal gains, but if someone becomes hurt or is unproductive, you're season is most likely in trouble.
2. If you try to base you're strategy on speculative sleepers, your portfolio will have too many holes to plug during the season.
3. The mid-range players (round 5-15 or $30-$10) represent the best value and where you can maximize your draft. The players you select here can give you stats a lot worth a lot more than what you pay for. A 7th rounder can give you 3rd round stats.

Thus when you do your draft prep, don't try to spend so much time on the "best sleepers" or the "best overall players". Focus on those players that are going to fall in the middle, the ones that can give you supreme value for minimal risk.

Draft Order

A very exciting thing happened this week, the draft order was set for the league. It is a 12 team 6x6 snake draft that is very competitive but in different ways. There is the typical group at the top, then at the middle, and then a few at the bottom. But it's about even throughout, 4 teams in each group which makes it fun yet frustrating at the same time.

This year I have the 11th pick out of 12. I love this place. I will get 2 of the top 14 picks. In years past, anytime I have gotten a 1st round pick in the top 8, I have traded the draft pick down. My basis for valuation of that draft slot was in a somewhat unexpected but amazingly accurate place, The NFL Draft Slot valuation chart here:

http://www.thehogs.net/football101/draft-value-chart.html

Typically, I would move down 5 slots but gain a 4th or 5th rounder while sacrificing my 8th. But not this year, having the 11th slot allows for more concrete planning. You will know certain players will absolutely not be there. Plus you will not have to worry about your other targeted players being taken before your next pick.

In my league, offense dominates the first 2 rounds and part of the 3rd. Often Santana is the only one taken before the 25th pick. In this league, we are allowed to keep 1 hitter and 1 pitcher, sacrificing a round based on their position in years past.

This year I am keeping Sizemore in the 11th round and Clay Buchholz in the 16th round. So this gives me some serious leeway in what I do. I could take Rollins and Santana with my 1st two picks and give me solid footing in the SB and Runs categories along with K's and WHIP. However If I go with a traditional slugger, someone in the Miggy C. mold I can give myself absolutely great position in my offensive ranks without having to overpay for steals.

This is why if you have a chance to trade down to the end of the first round you should take it. Offer up a package like this:

you give up a 1st and 7th
You gain a 2nd and 4th

You'll be happy every time.