Buy Low/Sell High (May 27th, 2008)

Buy Low: Randy Johnson

Key Stats:

W	L	SV		IP	H	ER		HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
4	1	0		44.7	47	20		5	12	47		4.03	1.321
BABIP			SO/BB				PTO%				QERA
0.341			3.92				31.33%				3.245979

Am I expecting the Randy Johnson of around 2000 to suddenly return? The answer is definitely no, but at times he can take it to vintage Randy and strike out 10 like he did last week. His BABIP is a little elevated so that should come down and help get his WHIP to under 1.30 but the thing I like most is his SO/BB ratio and his PTO%. These are both excellent numbers that show that he still has his command and control and can make people miss. Having a higher PTO% also means that he is getting hitters out more efficiently and can thus go into games deeper. You can get him for:

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Jackson, Conor 1B ARI

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Gallagher, Sean RP CHC

Johnson, Randy SP ARI for Francis, Jeff SP COL

Sell High: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Key Stats: 

W	L	IP		H	ER	HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
8	0	60		41	16	4	38	53		2.4	1.317
BABIP			SO/BB			PTO%			QERA
0.236			1.39			27.16%			5.443318

I write this watching the Daisuke already give up 3 runs to the Mariners and I knew it was only a matter of time before the Daisuke love hit the wall. He is walking an astronomical number of hitters. For someone who supposedly has great stuff to have a SO/BB ratio of less than 1.5 is disgraceful. Aces do not have this low a ratio no matter what. His PTO% or dominance is also low for what “aces” supposedly are, which come in around 34-35%. His BABIP of .236 just goes to show you how lucky his ERA has been as his qERA is 3 runs higher!!!!!!

Here’s what you can get for him and do it now:

Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Suzuki, Ichiro CF SEA

Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Holliday, Matt LF COL (although he is hurt currently)

Kotchman, Casey 1B ANA and Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS for Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY

Buy Low/Sell High 5/26/08

First off thank you to all the veterans out there and their families for all that they have done for our country and our citizens. Good luck to all.

Buy Low: Mark Ellis

Key Stats:

G	AB	R		H	2B	3B		HR	RBI	SB		CS	BB	SO		BA	OBP
42	163	22		39	8	2		4	16	5		2	20	20		0.239	0.324
BABIP			BB/SO				P/PA				GB/FB				HR/FB
0.252			1.00				3.99				0.939				8.16%

Mark is having another year that sometimes causes you to scratch your head. Just when it looks like he was starting to really put things together last year, he has so far under-performed a little bit. His BABIP is a big reason for that but also his declining GB/FB ratio. To me it is amazing that for someone who hits this many FB he only has 4 HR. Even though his HR/FB% is consistent with his career average, his GB/FB ratio has dropped severely. More FB should mean at least 1-2 more HR than what he has. A big reason why his overall numbers are down is because he was dealing with a hamstring issue. It appears that he is healthy and ready to contribute so he should be in someone’s lineup soon.

Ellis, Mark 2B OAK for Lopez, Felipe SS WAS and Torres, Salomon RP MIL

Ellis, Mark 2B OAK for Villanueva, Carlos SP MIL

Ellis, Mark 2B OAK for Denorfia, Chris LF OAK

Sell High: Joe Mauer

Key Stats: 

G	AB	R		H	2B	3B		HR	RBI	SB		CS	BB	SO		BA	OBP
45	160	29		54	10	1		0	20	0		1	23	13		0.338	0.416
BABIP			BB/SO				P/PA				GB/FB				HR/FB
0.367			1.77				3.94				2.000				0.00%

For the last several years Joe has been living on reputation. This year is no exception. First off, he still does not have a single home run. They (scouts and fantasy players alike) expected that he would continue to grow into his body and begin to have 20HR power. We are now about 1/3 of the way through the season and he still does not have a single home run. Not good enough for me as your #1 catcher. Also he has been extremely lucky this year with his balls in play falling in for hits (it’s at .367!!!!!!!!!!!!) His GB/FB ratio is in line with his career averages but his BB/SO ratio has climbed dramatically. Trade him while you can before people realize his HR power is non-existent this year.

This is what you could get for him according to CBS fantasy baseball recent trades.

Mauer, Joe C MIN for Longoria, Evan 3B TB and Rodriguez, Ivan C DET

Mauer, Joe C MIN for Oswalt, Roy SP HOU

Mauer, Joe C MIN for Beltran, Carlos CF NYM

Buy Low/Sell high Post-weekend edition

Sorry I'm late with this but without further ado.

Buy Low: Roy Oswalt

Key Stats:

W	L	SV		IP	H	ER		HR	BB	SO		ERA	WHIP
4	4	0		69	85	45		15	18	53		5.61	1.493
BABIP			SO/BB				PTO%				qERA
0.329			2.94				27.95%				4.0365

Roy may not be what he was in years past but he isn’t this bad. He’s given up a few more HR than I’d like to see but he has also been quite unlucky with his BABIP and qERA. He doesn’t dominate the game like he used to with insane strikeout numbers but he can be quite effective. His SO/BB ratio is a smudge under elite status but the can quickly change with one great game. The last several one for one trades are:

Oswalt, Roy SP HOU for Arroyo, Bronson SP CIN

Oswalt, Roy SP HOU for Ellsbury, Jacoby CF BOS

Oswalt, Roy SP HOU for Maine, John SP NYM

Not too shabby I’d say. Target him now.

Sell High: Aaron Rowand

Key Stats: 

G	AB	R		H	2B	3B		HR	RBI	SB		BB	SO	TB
45	157	20		51	14	0		6	25	0		16	35	83
BABIP			P/PA				BB/SO				HR/FB
0.388			3.38				0.46				20.69%

Aaron is one of my pet peeves but in this case it is rightfully so. He gets a lot more credit than he deserves in certain fantasy circles because he plays the game the way it’s supposed to be played, all out leave nothing on the field even to the detriment of your face. That’s the way the game is supposed to be played anyways. This year people are raving about his OPS but his BABIP is spiked and he has no batting eye whatsoever, not even getting a half a walk for every strikeout. He’s hitting almost 21% of his FB for HR after averages around 13-14% for his career with several years around 10%. And best of all he’s seeing the least amount of pitches per plate appearance in his career.

This is what you might be able to get for him (especially if you find the right taker)

Rowand, Aaron CF SF for Soriano, Alfonso LF CHC

Rowand, Aaron CF SF for Byrnes, Eric CF ARI

Rowand, Aaron CF SF for Duchscherer, Justin RP OAK

Rowand, Aaron CF SF for Billingsley, Chad SP LA Run don’t walk away from this guy.