Keeper Analysis #12 - This Guy's Team

See all the other analysis here and the grid alignment here.

For the final team's analysis, I need to preface it with the fact that this team is the league's whipping boy. He tends to say and do stupid things but he firmly believes that whatever he does will make his team better. So without further ado, what follows will be an interesting case.

Rule #1: Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Russ Martin (1) and Dan Haren (1). This does not eliminate Alex Rodriguez (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates no one since Martin is already eliminated.

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This eliminates no one.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is unknown or won't get the majority of the playing time. This eliminates no one.

Rule #5: Never keep a veteran on the decline. This eliminates Giles (16), Matsui (7), Damon (16), and Mussina (16).

This leaves us with

Hitters:
Alex Rodriguez (1)
Youkilis (16)
K. Johnson (5)
Keppinger (16)
Ellsbury (11)
Ludwick (16)
Byrd (16)
Votto (15)

Pitchers:
Chamberlain (12)
Matsuzaka (3)
Price (16)
Cueto (16)
Lohse (16)
Marcum (16)
W. Rodriguez (16)

Right off the bat we can eliminate Marcum (16) because he went under the knife for Tommy John surgery. We can also eliminate Matsuzaka (3) because even though he will give you wins, his WHIP is way too high and his ERA is largely based on luck right now.

I would next eliminate Chamberlain (12) because I'm not 100% sure he's going to be a starter. I think there is a good chance he could end up staying in the pen which would severely limit his value this year for fantasy purposes.

So that leaves us with a bunch of guys who are round 16. In situations such as this, I tend to take the most talented pitcher because pitchers are so variable anyways. I think this is clearly Price and so that's who I would keep out of the pitchers.

Hitters:

I think we can automatically eliminate Kelly Johnson at 5. He's been a bit of a disappointment and is way too high at round 5. I think you can easily pick him up near round 9-10 at least. Out of the group of hitters at round 16, I think Youkilis is the most talented and the most likely to give you great return. That leaves us with:

AROD (1)
Youkilis (16)
Ellsbury (11)
Votto (15)

I think we can eliminate Votto (15) because at that range Youkilis is better at that spot. So I think it comes down to ARod (1), Youkilis (16), and Ellsbury (11). Ellsbury, even though he steals bases left and right, simply does not help out in the other areas enough to warrent being a keeper. His OBP, RBIs, and TBs simply are not high enough compared to Youk and ARod.

With everything considered I would keep Youk (16) over ARod at (1). Yes ARod may have another season like he did a couple of years ago, but if Youk gives you even 75% of what ARod does, he will be a steal at 16.

Summary: Youkilis (16) and Price (15).

Buy Low/ Sell High Summary

Well here it is finally playoff time and I wanted to look at how I did at the end of the year. I created a spreadsheet here for everyone to see and compare different scenarios.

Looking at everything, I did win basically every category that the player can control. FIP - ERA for pitchers have a swing of close to 4 tenths of a point in ERA. The WHIP is better by close to .06 and more than 1K/9 better in the buy group. My pitchers also gave up less HR and had a higher average gamescore.

The hitters have a slightly worse HR/AB but everything else is better even nominally so.

Looking back on things, I realized I made three mistakes in my evaluations even though I have come out on top.

• The superstars that I recommended had it in them to do that for that period of time. For instance, Berkman and Uggla with their power for the month or so after I suggested them. Yes their HRs did decrease over the second half, especially near the end.
• I focused too much on benchmarks focusing on a batters eye (HR/FB to some extent, P/PA, and BB/SO) instead of focusing on metrics that focus on the skill of swinging the bat/throwing the ball and compare that to the league average (expected BABIP to BABIP, EQA, k%, LD/GB/FB rates, #"No doubt" and "Plenty" HR according to Hittrackeronline.com).
• I put too much emphasis on general trend (downward trending of Gb/FB for instance) over the years instead of looking at the other metrics showing that he's turned the corner (such as a concurrent increase in K%).

I'm going to look long and hard at this, because even though I was successful, it wasn't nearly to the extent that I wanted. In the off-season there are going to be many different articles and discussions with the other authors from RotoSavants.

Keeper Analysis #11 - The Great Giambino Mustache Ride

See all of the previous analysis here and the grid here. This one will be somewhat special as it is the guy who just won the league (Troy).

Rule #1 : Never keep a first rounder. This eliminates Howard (1), Dunn (1), and Beltran (1).

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates McCann (4) and Iannetta (16).

Rule #3: Never keep a closer above round 5. This eliminates noone.

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is undefined and not going to get majority of playing time. This eliminates Masterson (16) and Broxton (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a veteran player in decline. This eliminates Maddux (16), Giambi (16), and Glaus (16).

That leaves us with:
Figgins (13)
Iwamura (16)
S. Drew (16)
McClouth (16)
Quentin (16)
Reynolds (16)

Kuo (16)
Volquez (16)
Guthrie (16)
Lackey (2)
Slowey (16)
Cain (6)
Soria (9)

I think right on talent alone we can eliminate Figgins (13), Iwamura (16), and Reynolds (16). Looking at the remainder of the group, all of them are 16th rounders. S. Drew (16) has an OPS+ of 111, McLouth (16) has an 124, and Quentin has an 149. Drew and McLouth both have seen about 1300 AB while Quentin has seen about 800ish but McLouth is the oldest of them at 26.

All of their HR/BIA isn't consistent and all of their BABIP are within the normal limits and fairly consistent with their past. Quentin has the highest GB% at 41.4%, Drew and McLouth have identical 34.2% GB%. McLouth has the best P/PA at 4.00 (and has increased each year), while Drew and Quentin have both decreased slightly from last year at 3.80 and 3.62.

In terms of contact, Quentin is slightly below average at 79%, Drew is average at 82%, and McLouth is the best at 88%. Quentin however has some question marks about the health of the wrist so that needs to be considered.

Based on this I choose McLouth. He has progressed the most, has the best GB%, highest P/PA, seen the most AB, and has an ever improving OPS+. While I no longer have questions about Quentins shoulder, I do have serious doubts about his wrist and the effect it will have on his power next year. Drew seems to be average or less in this group.

For the pitchers, I think we can eliminate Lackey (2), Cain (6), Soria (9), and Kuo (16) as either costing too high or the talent isn't on par with everyone else. So we're left with Volquez, Guthrie, and Slowey, all 16th rounders.

• To start with, Volquez has an ERA+ of 140, Guthrie has a 122, and Slowey owns a 105. Neutralized according to baseball-reference.com shows Volquez to have a 2.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.259. Guthrie has a 3.23 ERA and a 1.152 WHIP while Slowey owns a 3.75 ERA and a 1.112 WHIP.

• Volquez also owns the best in play % where the lower is better and his is at 15.7% and has improved each of the last 3 years. Guthrie and Slowey are both around 20% and thus they are more reliant on their defense and luck.

• Volquez also has the highest GB % at 46% over Guthrie and Slowey's at 43% and 34% respectively. Everyone's BABIP is in line with their norms. K% also goes to Volquez at 23% where the norm is 16%. Guthrie is at 15% and Slowey is at 18%.

• BB% goes to Slowey at 3.68% where the norm is 8%. Guthrie is at 7% while Volquez is 11%.

Finally directly from Statcorner.com

SwStr% (SP: 7.8%, RP: 9.5%)The percentage of pitches thrown that are swung on and missed. These have a direct linear relationship with a pitcher's strikeout rate and are often a good leading variable for how a pitcher will perform in the future.

• Volquez is at 10.9% and has increased each of the last 3 years. Guthrie is at 7.6% and Slowey is at 8.7%

With all that, I would recommend Volquez at 16. The one concern everyone has is his walks. I strongly think that his other categories more than make up for the increased walks, especially when the BABIP is within normal limits. If he was in Dice-K mode and walking everyone in sight but not giving up runs, then I'd be worried. Guthrie I think is in the middle of the road and Slowey may end up being a Maddux type in the future but right now you have to go with Volquez who is above many of the metrics I see.

Summary: I recommend keeping McLouth (16) and Volquez (15).