Buy Low/Sell High July 8th (Fransico Liriano/John Danks)

Buy Low: Francisco Liriano

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.441	0.540	21.1%	8.57	2.751	20.68	5.94
2007	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
2006	0.285	4.50	36.23%	2.37	-0.214	14.85	2.61

He’s not on my list because of his numbers. He’s on my list because he is starting to dominate the AAA crowd and look nasty like he used to. The Twins will have to bring him up soon and he can be one of those pitchers that help you out in every category. In his last 10 games down there he’s got a 3.59 ERA and that includes two games which were absolutely horrendous. He’s averaging close to a strikeout an inning and best of all, he hasn’t walked more than 1 batter in any of his last 10 starts. Getting the command back is key for any pitcher, but especially one that is coming back from TJ surgery.

Liriano, Francisco SP MIN for Hudson, Orlando 2B ARI

Kobayashi, Masahide RP CLE and Liriano, Francisco SP MIN for Kubel, Jason LF MIN

Liriano, Francisco SP MIN for Headley, Chase 3B SD

Sell High: John Danks

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.282	2.770	28.5%	3.95	-1.505	16.16	3.34
2007	0.317	2.02	26.38%	4.77	0.735	17.32	5.44
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

You’re probably looking at the numbers above and saying what the hell is there to be scared of. The only thing I see is his ERA differential from qERA to regular ERA. Even taking defense out of it, his ERA is almost a run higher than what it is. Once the heat starts up in Chi-town the balls tend to fly a little higher and a little farther. This isn’t to say that he’ll be bad the rest of the way but he won’t be this good, especially since he’s never had a WHIP below 1.38 or an ERA below 4.00 let alone 3.00.

Just make sure you get a great haul in return.

Danks, John SP CHW for Soto, Geovany C CHC

Danks, John SP CHW and Youkilis, Kevin 1B BOS for Hamels, Cole SP PHI

Danks, John SP CHW for Lincecum, Tim SP SF (I’d love to play in this league)

Buy Low/Sell High Trade Candidates July 7th (Brad Hawpe, Jerry Hairston)

Buy Low: Brad Hawpe

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.216	4.06	0.67	1.241	20.69%
2007	0.264	3.97	0.59	1.180	23.77%
2006	0.273	3.96	0.60	1.538	20.75%

Ever since he has come off the DL he has been on fire, hitting 9 HR and having an OPS of an even 1.000. Yet because he’s out in Colorado you don’t hear too much about him since he’s next to Holliday. The thing I like a lot is that his BABIP is a lot lower than his career average even though he’s being more patient at the plate. Also his HR/FB is in line with his career average so he appears to be a little unlucky right now. You can get him real cheap and I recommend him immediately.

Hawpe, Brad RF COL for Garko, Ryan 1B CLE

Hawpe, Brad RF COL for Doumit, Ryan C PIT

Hawpe, Brad RF COL for Byrnes, Eric CF ARI

Sell High: Jerry Hairston

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.367	3.79	0.46	2.000	6.67%
2007	0.208	3.77	0.46	1.462	7.69%
2006	0.233	3.83	0.38	1.886	0.00%

Noone can keep up a .367 BABIP throughout the year. Ever since he came off the DL he has been getting hits left and right and now is the perfect time to sell him high, especially since CIN will not be going anywhere and may potentially start trading away other players. Everything else is in line but that BABIP is just crazy. Hairston won’t be able to get you much in a one for one trade but package him in a deal and you could get a good haul.

Hairston, Jerry LF CIN and Nady, Xavier RF PIT for Guerrero, Vladimir RF ANA

Hairston, Jerry LF CIN and Taveras, Willy CF COL for Beltran, Carlos CF NYM

Hairston, Jerry LF CIN and Webb, Brandon SP ARI for Holliday, Matt LF COL and Penny, Brad SP LA

Buy Low/Sell High July 6th (Sonnanstine/Posada)

Buy Low: Andy Sonnanstine

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.333	3.450	28.2%	4.25	0.057	15.11	3.47
2007	0.333	3.73	27.94%	4.05	1.797	16.05	4.13
2006	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A

Time to face it, the Rays are not going anywhere and in large part due to its pitching staff. Andy has been a large part in this evidenced by his FIP of 3.47 and a K/BB ratio of almost 3.50. By having an P/IP of 15.11 it shows that he is efficient in his pitches, often able to get to the 7^th inning on barely 100 pitches. He'll help both your WHIP and ERA and could make that difference at the end of the year.

Sonnanstine, Andy SP TB for Torres, Salomon RP MIL

Sonnanstine, Andy SP TB for Fuentes, Brian RP COL

Sonnanstine, Andy SP TB for Abreu, Bobby RF NYY

Sell High: Jorge Posada

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.275	3.77	0.64	1.049	7.32%
2007	0.324	3.83	0.76	1.302	15.50%
2006	0.255	3.72	0.67	1.133	17.97%

Posada has had a rough year between injuries and decreased production from years past. Something is causing his HR/FB ratio to drop like a rock and while I'm not 100% sure, I think it is his right shoulder or power shoulder for left-handed batters. The other thing to note is he's hitting more FB than ever while having the same aggressiveness. All of this leads me to recommend selling him on his name right now and picking up someone like Jeff Clement or Ryan Doumit who will give you the same if not better production. His BABIP is also well within the normal range, so you cannot reasonably expect a correction one way or another.

Posada, Jorge C NYY and Webb, Brandon SP ARI for Longoria, Evan 3B TB and McCann, Brian C ATL

Posada, Jorge C NYY for Dye, Jermaine RF CHW

Posada, Jorge C NYY for Burrell, Pat LF PHI