Keeper Analysis #6 - My Team Sucks

Our 6th installment is one that's going to make our decisions fairly difficult. To see all of the other ones check here while seeing the round cost here.

Rule #1: Never keep a player in the first round. This one hurts me but it eliminates Hanley Ramirez (1), Fielder (1), and Hamels (1). The one that hurts is Hanley. He gives such and incredible blend of power and speed that it is scary. The one knock on him is that his scoring and RBI opportunities may not be there. Even in his amazing run of two years driven in an average of about 70 RBIs.

Rule #2: Never keep a catcher. This eliminates Shoppach (16) even though he's had a good year. Catchers never play every game and if they do they'll wear down at the end.

Rule #3: Never keep a closer if he'll cost you more than a 5th round pick. This eliminates Putz (4).

Rule #4: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined. This eliminates Polanco (16), Hawpe (3), Baldelli (11), Jackson (16), and C. Perez (16).

Rule #5: Never keep a declining veteran. This eliminates Willingham (13).

That leaves us with:

Hitters:

Hanley Ramirez (1)
Cano (5)
Rowand (10)
Cruz (16)
Headley (16)

Pitchers:

Maine (13)
Pelfrey (16)
Kazmir (2)

Let's look at the Hitters first. After this season I think it's safe to say that Cano and Rowand are not really keeper material. So do you want to go with youth or experience. I say you'd keep Hanley Ramirez and this is why. This is from Statcorner.com

Year	PA	wOBA	wOBA*	lgwOBA	wOBA+
2005	2	0.000	0.000	0.339	0
2006	700	0.371	0.372	0.338	110
2007	706	0.407	0.410	0.332	123
2008	668	0.407	0.409	0.327	125

Year	Ptc	TkB%	TkS%
2005	11	50.0%	50.0%
2006	2804	65.6%	34.4%
2007	2565	68.7%	31.3%
2008	2766	70.5%	29.5%

The wOBA+ is fairly straightforward and that is the OBA compared to the rest of the league. Statcorner uses it to compare a player to everyone else. You can see he has improved each of the last 3 years. Currently Headley is a little bit over 100 while Cruz's is in the low 130s but only over 97 PA. To me the biggest thing about Ramirez is looking at the second group of numbers. Each of the last 3 years he has improved his pitch selection. TkB% is the percentage of pitches taken that were balls and has risen steadily. TkS% is therefore the percentage of pitches taken that were strikes has dropped steadily. He's improving his pitch selection and starting to finally take walks and progress as a hitter. I expect a monster season from him next year.

Thus, I keep Hanley (1).

Pitching similarly really isn't that different. Kazmir is a good pitcher but he is not worth a 2nd round pick, at least in our league. He's likely a #mid 3-4 round pick in my opinion based on his late season inconsistency.

John Maine (13) versus Mike Pelfrey (16). Going back to Statcorner.com, tRa+ measures a pitchers effectiveness. "tRA involves assigning run and out values to all events under a pitcher's control and coming up with an expected number of runs allowed and outs generated in a defense and park neutral environment." tRa+ is therefore the difference when compared to others in the league. Maine has a tRa+ of 100 meaning he's exactly league average while Pelfrey is 110.

Another metric is the BB%. Maine's has increased in each of the last 3 years (8.86, 9.26, 11.02%) while Pelfrey's has actually decreased in each of the last 3 years (12.12, 11.15, 7.63%) Pelfrey's BABIP is also a more realistic .302 while Maine's is .266. Pelfrey has a much better GB rate than Maine by 10% and finally the real kicker to me is that Pelfrey has a much better HR%/BIA (ball in air) 3.65% to 6.56% .

Because of all of that, I eliminate Maine and would keep Pelfrey (16). Maine does give a better K% but you can make that up in other places.

Summary: Hanley (1) and Pelfrey (16).