Keeper Analysis #3 (ER Recruiter)

The third installment is my team ER Recruiter. You can see the analysis of 108 Stitches and Emporers VIP Club to see my previous thoughts. You can see each player's cost for next year here.

Remember my first rule, never keep a player that would cost a 1st round choice unless it is Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley. I don't have either so we can eliminate Mark Teixeira (1), Corey Hart (1), David Ortiz (1).

2nd rule: eliminate all closers who would cost more than a 5th rounder. I should make an ammendment in that you should never keep a closer unless he's an absolute elite closer. That eliminates all of my closers in Wagner (7 and I should drop him anyways), Street (8), and Rodney (16).

3rd rule: Never keep a catcher, ever. This eliminates Laird (16) and Clement (16).

4th rule: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined. This eliminates Jeff Baker (16).

5th rule: Never keep a veteran on the decline. This eliminates Chipper (3), JD Drew (13), and Bradley (16).

So that leaves us with a list of:

Hitters:
B. Roberts (4)
Beltre (15)
Peralta (6)
Bruce (11)
Gomez (16)

Pitchers:
Baker (16)
F. Hernandez (4)
F. Liriano (6)
H. Kuroda (16)
N. Blackburn (16)
U. Jimenez (16)

So this leaves me with quite a little dilemma. For the hitters, there isn't too much of a decision as Gomez (16) still needs more seasoning clearly. Peralta (6) and Roberts (4) both have the production at that position but I could easily draft them in those rounds anyways. In these situations, that's basically like wasting a keeper selection. Beltre (15) is a good value there but overall his production isn't keeper worthy I think. So that leaves me with Bruce at round 11. I'm looking at not only next year but the year after when he's only going to be an 8th rounder for me.

Pitching wise is tough. Looking at the talent levels and the teams that they are on, of all the 16 rounders only Jimenez stands out. This eliminates Blackburn (16), Baker (16), and Kuroda (16). So it's really between F. Hernandez (4), Liriano (6), and Jimenez (16).

Looking at their career trends first with the help of Statcorner.com, I like to analyze 7 main components of a pitcher when deciding whether or not to keep them. K%, BB%, LD%, GB%, % pitches thrown for a called strike, and % pitches thrown for a swinging strike. I break down the strikes because I feel it helps to break down how "good" their pitches are with their movement and control.

This is what we have by each player:

Hernandez

K% BB% LD% GB% ClStr% SwStr%
23.48% 7.01% 13.3% 68.1% 19.6% 10%
21.57% 7.35% 16.9% 58.5% 18.3% 9%
20.45% 6.44% 17.7% 59.6% 18.9% 9.7%
20.97% 9.44% 19.3% 50.9% 17.1% 8.8%

Liriano

K% BB% LD% GB% ClStr% SwStr%
32.56% 8.14% 23.5% 47.1% 15.5% 17.6%
29.71% 7.43% 14.4% 58.1% 19.6% 15.1%
19.61% 9.62% 16.3% 41.3% 15.6% 10.3%

Jimenez

K% BB% LD% GB% ClStr% SwStr%
12% 12% 21.1% 47.4% 16.3% 8.7%
19.21% 10.45% 18.9% 45.3% 17.3% 9.2%
18.91% 11.68% 17.9% 53.8% 16.4% 8.2%

I have to admit, when I ran these numbers I was a little surprised. I knew that Hernandez wasn't exactly as dominating as he was his rookie season but he has declined in every single metric that I look at. Somewhat concerning is that his BB% suddenly spiked this year while his called strike % dropped. Also, someone who supposedly has absolutely dominating stuff, swinging strikes are getting harder and harder to come by, dropping by a full % point this year. This leads me to worry about his health. Control issues are always of a concern with elbow injuries and he has suffered from some in the past. Additionally, he has suffered from multiple lower leg injuries this year which would cause me to be concerned about kinetic chain issues. Lastly, I just don't think the Mariners will be good next year so the opportunity for Wins will be hard to come by.

We all know about Liriano's injury history and while that doesn't worry me a ton, what does worry me is what appears to be a sudden drop in K%. That's deceiving though because he was at such an unreal rate and also the first couple of starts this year. He's just starting to feel comfortable after coming back from Tommy John surgery. His called strikes are back where it was his rookie year while his swinging strikes are definitely down. I think this is definitely the result of slowly improving the movement on his pitches and should only improve next year. He also is throwing more FB and I think this is also the result of the movement on his pitches but also his pitch selection. He and the Twins have been hesistant to call for the slide piece because of the propensity to cause elbow problems. Now that he will be 18 months after the surgery come next year, most pitchers are back to normal at this point.

Jimenez's issues aren't health or velocity. It's always been about his control and thus the only question I have about him is whether or not I think his control will improve next year. His GB% spiked this year so I have to wonder if that is a little bit of an anomoly. After performing pretty well during the middle of the year, he has settled back into an inconsistent pattern. That is one thing I personally don't want out of a keeper is inconsistency. He does have the opportunity to improve as he has only thrown about 250 MLB IP but then again he may not. Most starting pitchers need about 500 IP before settling into their true pattern.

So it comes down to what I'm willing to give up based on my risk/reward value system. I think Felix Hernandez and his injury possibility is too much to give up for a 4th round pick. Offense would be much better suited to be picked there.

So Jimenez (16) or Liriano (6). I have to admit that Liriano is a little bit of my binkie but I also believe that Liriano is much more likely to produce at a keeper level than Jimenez. I usually take the best arm/stuff available but it doesn't always work out that way. I kept Clay Buchholz last year because he was described as having the best stuff and we all see how that worked for me. I really think that Liriano will continue to improve on his string of starts at the end of this year. I am not expecting a repeat of his rookie season where he was better than everyone alive, but I am expecting a much improved version of the 2nd half pitcher we're seeing. I expect 6-8K per game while going 6-7 IP each start. I also expect a WHIP around 1.10 with an ERA in the high 3's. Jimenez may give me the K's and the IP but he definitely will not give me that WHIP and ERA.

Summary: Bruce (11) and Liriano (6)