Buy Low/ Sell High July 15th (Jonathan Sanchez/Tim Wakefield)

Buy Low: Jonathan Sanchez

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.305	2.170	29.1%	4.12	-0.145	17.42	3.76
2007	0.374	2.210	27.86%	3.90	1.981	19.33	4.49
2006	0.306	1.43	25.20%	5.42	-0.470	18.45	4.01

Jonathan pitches for SF so he doesn’t get the respect he deserves but he has been pitching pretty well. He won’t get you points across the board but he strikes a lot of people out and his BABIP and xBABIP are exactly the same meaning that luck probably isn’t playing a part in his success. His FIP is lower than his ERA and he’s getting outs easier than before (an increasing PTO%). The only concern I have is a concern for breaking down as he’s been increasing his workload over the last couple seasons. At this point though you’re likely only going to target him for counting stats so make sure you either sell high on someone else to get him or maybe package him in a deal with someone else.

Sanchez, Jonathan O. RP SF for Hawpe, Brad RF COL

Sanchez, Jonathan O. RP SF for Ibanez, Raul LF SEA

Sanchez, Jonathan O. RP SF for Hunter, Torii CF ANA

Sell High: Tim Wakefield

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.233	1.790	28.2%	5.02	-1.421	15.49	4.71
2007	0.285	1.720	27.32%	5.12	-0.364	15.24	4.58
2006	0.266	1.76	26.64%	5.05	-0.424	16.09	4.79

Tim at first glance is having a great year. An ERA under 4, a WHIP of less than 1.20 and a k/game of over 6 will fool many people. I see several problems here, most importantly though the difference between his FIP and ERA is over 1 and even worse is the difference between qERA and ERA. His BABIP is always going to be a little inconsistent due to the nature of a knuckleballer but a .233 BABIP is highly unlikely to be sustainable. Helping your cause in selling him high is the fact that he plays for the Red Sox so it could help a little more.

Renteria, Edgar SS DET and Wakefield, Tim SP BOS for Dye, Jermaine RF CHW

Wakefield, Tim SP BOS for Chamberlain, Joba RP NYY

Hardy, J.J. SS MIL and Wakefield, Tim SP BOS for Ordonez, Magglio RF DET

Buy Low/Sell High July 14th (Jorge Cantu/Bobby Abreu)

Buy Low: Jorge Cantu

Key Stats:

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.275	3.80	0.38	1.110	18.00%
2007	0.257	3.77	0.46	1.615	3.85%
2006	0.236	3.71	0.29	1.330	13.59%

Jorge’s been swinging the bat extremely well this month and I think he’ll continue having a great bounceback season. He’s hitting almost as many FB as GB with seeing more pitches per plate appearance. To me this means a changing of approach at the plate and getting better pitches to hit. After an abysmal HR season last year, he’s rebounded quite well.

Cantu, Jorge 1B FLA for Renteria, Edgar SS DET

Cantu, Jorge 1B FLA for Danks, John SP CHW

Bourn, Michael RF HOU and Cantu, Jorge 1B FLA for
Bailey, Homer SP CIN

Sell High: Bobby Abreu

Key Stats: 

Pitcher:	BABIP	K/BB	PTO%	qERA	ERA Dif	P/IP	FIP
Hitter:	BABIP	P/PA	BB/SO	GB/FB	HR/FB
2008	0.257	4.30	0.55	1.986	14.29%
2007	0.269	4.38	0.73	1.593	11.03%
2006	0.281	4.46	0.90	1.576	12.71%

Normally you wouldn’t see someone in this section with the numbers you see above. But looking deeper, I see things that I don’t like. Every single statistic above has been worsening except for the HR/FB%. To me that means the player is in decline and you should try to get rid of him when his value is high. Right now he’s got 59 RBIs but with only 10 HR and an OPS under .800. The fact that he plays in a major market helps to overvalue him right now.

Abreu, Bobby RF NYY for Gomez, Carlos OF MIN and
Quentin, Carlos RF CHW

Abreu, Bobby RF NYY and Cantu, Jorge 1B FLA for Beckett, Josh SP BOS

Abreu, Bobby RF NYY and Pettitte, Andy SP NYY for Adenhart, Nick SP ANA and Cabrera, Miguel 3B DET

Injury Analysis

Just wanted to let you know about my injury analysis post at Fighting Chance Fantasy.

Starting tomorrow, I should be getting the normal updates again. Thanks for understanding.