Keeper Analysis #3 (ER Recruiter)

The third installment is my team ER Recruiter. You can see the analysis of 108 Stitches and Emporers VIP Club to see my previous thoughts. You can see each player's cost for next year here.

Remember my first rule, never keep a player that would cost a 1st round choice unless it is Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley. I don't have either so we can eliminate Mark Teixeira (1), Corey Hart (1), David Ortiz (1).

2nd rule: eliminate all closers who would cost more than a 5th rounder. I should make an ammendment in that you should never keep a closer unless he's an absolute elite closer. That eliminates all of my closers in Wagner (7 and I should drop him anyways), Street (8), and Rodney (16).

3rd rule: Never keep a catcher, ever. This eliminates Laird (16) and Clement (16).

4th rule: Never keep a player whose role is not well defined. This eliminates Jeff Baker (16).

5th rule: Never keep a veteran on the decline. This eliminates Chipper (3), JD Drew (13), and Bradley (16).

So that leaves us with a list of:

Hitters:
B. Roberts (4)
Beltre (15)
Peralta (6)
Bruce (11)
Gomez (16)

Pitchers:
Baker (16)
F. Hernandez (4)
F. Liriano (6)
H. Kuroda (16)
N. Blackburn (16)
U. Jimenez (16)

So this leaves me with quite a little dilemma. For the hitters, there isn't too much of a decision as Gomez (16) still needs more seasoning clearly. Peralta (6) and Roberts (4) both have the production at that position but I could easily draft them in those rounds anyways. In these situations, that's basically like wasting a keeper selection. Beltre (15) is a good value there but overall his production isn't keeper worthy I think. So that leaves me with Bruce at round 11. I'm looking at not only next year but the year after when he's only going to be an 8th rounder for me.

Pitching wise is tough. Looking at the talent levels and the teams that they are on, of all the 16 rounders only Jimenez stands out. This eliminates Blackburn (16), Baker (16), and Kuroda (16). So it's really between F. Hernandez (4), Liriano (6), and Jimenez (16).

Looking at their career trends first with the help of Statcorner.com, I like to analyze 7 main components of a pitcher when deciding whether or not to keep them. K%, BB%, LD%, GB%, % pitches thrown for a called strike, and % pitches thrown for a swinging strike. I break down the strikes because I feel it helps to break down how "good" their pitches are with their movement and control.

This is what we have by each player:

Hernandez

K% BB% LD% GB% ClStr% SwStr%
23.48% 7.01% 13.3% 68.1% 19.6% 10%
21.57% 7.35% 16.9% 58.5% 18.3% 9%
20.45% 6.44% 17.7% 59.6% 18.9% 9.7%
20.97% 9.44% 19.3% 50.9% 17.1% 8.8%

Liriano

K% BB% LD% GB% ClStr% SwStr%
32.56% 8.14% 23.5% 47.1% 15.5% 17.6%
29.71% 7.43% 14.4% 58.1% 19.6% 15.1%
19.61% 9.62% 16.3% 41.3% 15.6% 10.3%

Jimenez

K% BB% LD% GB% ClStr% SwStr%
12% 12% 21.1% 47.4% 16.3% 8.7%
19.21% 10.45% 18.9% 45.3% 17.3% 9.2%
18.91% 11.68% 17.9% 53.8% 16.4% 8.2%

I have to admit, when I ran these numbers I was a little surprised. I knew that Hernandez wasn't exactly as dominating as he was his rookie season but he has declined in every single metric that I look at. Somewhat concerning is that his BB% suddenly spiked this year while his called strike % dropped. Also, someone who supposedly has absolutely dominating stuff, swinging strikes are getting harder and harder to come by, dropping by a full % point this year. This leads me to worry about his health. Control issues are always of a concern with elbow injuries and he has suffered from some in the past. Additionally, he has suffered from multiple lower leg injuries this year which would cause me to be concerned about kinetic chain issues. Lastly, I just don't think the Mariners will be good next year so the opportunity for Wins will be hard to come by.

We all know about Liriano's injury history and while that doesn't worry me a ton, what does worry me is what appears to be a sudden drop in K%. That's deceiving though because he was at such an unreal rate and also the first couple of starts this year. He's just starting to feel comfortable after coming back from Tommy John surgery. His called strikes are back where it was his rookie year while his swinging strikes are definitely down. I think this is definitely the result of slowly improving the movement on his pitches and should only improve next year. He also is throwing more FB and I think this is also the result of the movement on his pitches but also his pitch selection. He and the Twins have been hesistant to call for the slide piece because of the propensity to cause elbow problems. Now that he will be 18 months after the surgery come next year, most pitchers are back to normal at this point.

Jimenez's issues aren't health or velocity. It's always been about his control and thus the only question I have about him is whether or not I think his control will improve next year. His GB% spiked this year so I have to wonder if that is a little bit of an anomoly. After performing pretty well during the middle of the year, he has settled back into an inconsistent pattern. That is one thing I personally don't want out of a keeper is inconsistency. He does have the opportunity to improve as he has only thrown about 250 MLB IP but then again he may not. Most starting pitchers need about 500 IP before settling into their true pattern.

So it comes down to what I'm willing to give up based on my risk/reward value system. I think Felix Hernandez and his injury possibility is too much to give up for a 4th round pick. Offense would be much better suited to be picked there.

So Jimenez (16) or Liriano (6). I have to admit that Liriano is a little bit of my binkie but I also believe that Liriano is much more likely to produce at a keeper level than Jimenez. I usually take the best arm/stuff available but it doesn't always work out that way. I kept Clay Buchholz last year because he was described as having the best stuff and we all see how that worked for me. I really think that Liriano will continue to improve on his string of starts at the end of this year. I am not expecting a repeat of his rookie season where he was better than everyone alive, but I am expecting a much improved version of the 2nd half pitcher we're seeing. I expect 6-8K per game while going 6-7 IP each start. I also expect a WHIP around 1.10 with an ERA in the high 3's. Jimenez may give me the K's and the IP but he definitely will not give me that WHIP and ERA.

Summary: Bruce (11) and Liriano (6)

Keeper Analysis Team #2 (Emporer's VIP Room)

We covered the first team (108 Stitches) here but it was pretty straightforward with very few legitimate keepers on her team. Our next team (Emporers VIP Club) has a couple interesting situations.

Following the first rule of never keeping anyone from the first round unless it was Chase Utley or Alex Rodriguez. Even though he might be tempted to keep Johan if he has a low first round pick, I don't think that he is worthy of a definite keeper pick. What hurts him is not the things he controls in Wins and Saves. Compared to a hitter who controls all 6 categories in a first round hitter, 4 categories in my opinion isn't enough. CC Sabathia is a name that could be interesting depending on where he ends up. If he ends up with a team that has a great bullpen, I might consider him with one of the last few picks in the first round but that's a big if. For now though, I'm not going to consider him. We can eliminate Santana, Sabathia, and M. Ramirez(just not a 1st rounder anymore).

The second rule I have is never keep catchers so that eliminates Molina (16).

Thirdly, I never keep veterans on the decline so this eliminates C.Guillen (3), J. Kent (11), M. Mora (16), Ichiro (4), Carpenter (16),B. Abreu (7), and Dave Bush (16).

Fourthly, I never keep closers if they cost more than a 5th round pick or unless they will help in all categories other than Wins. This eliminates Lidge and Capps. Ryan is somewhat interesting but according to the PFX data he has severely fatigued in the 2nd half. He has thrown balls at the second highest rate of his career (37.6%) and thrown the lowest percentage of swinging strikes for his career at 9.2%. A closer that doesn't strike people out enough and throws a lot of balls is a player who I do not want on my team. Also given his injury history, he's basically a time bomb waiting to go off on your fantasy team one way or the other. Morrow would give me serious pause if he was a closer but I believe the Mariners are going to use him as a starter. This gives me a little worry in that it may increase his risk of injury or breakdown. So I will elimate Ryan (9) and Morrow (16).

That leaves us with the following:

Hitters:
•Carlos Pena (5)
•Escobar (16)
•Davis(16)
•Hardy(15)
•Markakis (2)
•Braun (13)

Pitchers:
•J. Johnson (16)
•Sheets (6)
•Kershaw (16)
•Francis (12)
•Harrison (16)
•Ollie Perez (12)
•Maholm (16)
•Wellemeyer (16)

Going over the hitters obviously the only real option is Braun. Everyone else, while it'd be nice to have on the team, isn't keeper material at that price when you have Braun sitting there in round 13. This is his 2nd year being kept so going into 2010 he will be a 9th rounder and then a 4th for 2011. For some reason I don't think I'm going to get Braun anytime soon.

Pitching though I think we have a real dilemma. From a talent level alone, I think we can safely eliminate Francis (12), Ollie Perez (12), J. Johnson (16), and Maholm (16). Matt Harrison is too young and could be next years Clay Buccholz (bad sophmore year) so we'll eliminate Harrison (16). Wellemeyer will be 28 next season so most likely his growth phase is complete or at least relatively complete. Since both him and Kershaw are 16th rounders, I would rather have Kershaw at 16 than Wellemeyer. For that reason, we can eliminate Wellemeyer (16).

So we're left with Sheets (6) and Kershaw (16). Each player's Baseball Prospectus card is linked to their name to provide an excellent projection system. Unfortunately subscription is required, but in my opinion it is well worth it. Sheets is projected to perform very well and could be in the prime of his career. The problem with Sheets has always been his health. Even though this year has been one of his best, he's still battled some ailments throughout the season. Each year he gets older at this point in his career, the likelihood of injury increases.

On the other hand, Kershaw is the opposite in a way. His inexperience could lead to some problems for next year or the year after. He comes in with all the talent in the world but still needs to work on his control a little more. Kershaw throws a ball almost 40% of the time while the average major leaguer throws it about 32-35%. So far he has merely been average in his time here and still needs a lot of growth to reach his potential.

So it comes down to this: Do you want to take the risk on injury history or take the risk on inexperience. Personally I take the injury risk. That may be due to the Athletic Trainer in me but I look at skills. Once you are able to exhibit a skill at a certain level you basically always have that within you. Kershaw still hasn't proven that to me yet at the major league level. He's done it in the minors but it's different than in the show. Sheets' injury history is problematic to be sure but his skill set is amazing. According to Statcorner.com, Sheets has pitched at a level 37% higher than the average pitcher this year while Kershaw has been right at 100. I'd rather take the skill right now. Maybe in a year or two I'd keep Kershaw but I'd keep Sheets at 6 if I was his owner.

Summary: Sheets (6) and Braun (13)

First Installment of Keeper Analysis

First off I'd like to apologize wholeheartedly to all of the readers. I've had to take care of personnel issues at work that were completely unforeseen and unfortunately forced me to be away from my desk for a while. When you're a supervisor and people resign, unfortunately you're forced to do extra work. Hopefully it is fully taken care of and I can provide the first installment of the series.

Our first installment covers someone who was new to the league this year as she took over for someone else. Because of this, she doesn't have any keepers from the previous year starting with a clean slate.

Looking at the what each player will cost here, let's start analyzing who I think she should keep. To start off with I eliminate all players who would cost a first round pick unless that player is Alex Rodriguez or Chase Utley and even then only if you are drafting near the bottom. She does have Utley so he needs to stay in consideration but let's look at everyone else. This eliminates Webb and Granderson but leaves Utley in possible contention.

I next eliminate all closers that would cost more than a 5th round pick. This is when closers first start to go in our league so I would never choose someone who would cost me more than this. Also I would never choose a closer higher than the 8th round unless they are part of the top 3 elite of Rodriguez, Papelbon, and Nathan. These closers help in all categories other than Wins so they have the most overall value. This team does have Nathan but would cost a 3rd round pick so he is out of the question. None of the other closers meet any of the qualifications so this eliminates Nathan, Jenks, and Grabow.

My third rule is that I never keep a catcher, ever. Regardless of whether or not you have Russell Martin, catchers as a whole don't play everyday and often tire out down the stretch. They often only give you 120-140 games and that's simply not enough games for me. That eliminates Doumit and K. Suzuki.

My fourth rule is I never keep players whose role is not well defined. I call this the Joba Effect. You can eliminate DeRosa and Smardjiza.

My fifth rule is that I never keep veterans on the decline. Declining players can sometimes just fall off the table and if they don't meet your expectations they are usually well off. This is due to injuries and just lost production. This eliminates Lowell, Jeter, Anderson, Helton, Lowe, Arroyo, M. Young.

So right now we are looking at:

• J. Loney (9)
• E. Longoria (8)
• J. Werth (16)
• J. Hamilton (11)
• J. Upton (12)
• S. Victorino(5)
• D. Purcey (16)
• A. Sanchez (16)
• E. Jackson (16)
• J. Lester (16)

It's a little thin on the pitching side of things, so really the only one I see worth keeping is Lester. Everyone else either has made enough of a step up or just doesn't provide enough production to really be worth keeping. Lester I feel will make more strides next year in his control and could end up being a #2 pitcher for many fantasy teams. To be able to keep him in round 16 and know that you have a pitcher of that quality that late is invaluable.

Hitting wise, it's a little more of a toss up. Victorino is definitely not a 5th rounder so we can safely eliminate him. I would gladly take Longoria over Loney so we can eliminate Loney. I would take Hamilton over Werth or Justin Upton. I don't think either of those two have made the necessary adjustments to consistently produce at a keeper level.

So Hamilton vs. Longoria. Who do you keep? I think both will put up close to 35HR and 100 RBI next year. Both will likely score 100 runs and both have OBP in the .350-.360 range. (We count OBP instead of AVG in our league). So I think it comes down to simply who do you see a better long range outlook. I think that Longoria can only get better while Hamilton may take a small step backwards, especially if his team around him starts to crumble.

So with that, I say that Team # 1 (108 Stitches) should keep Lester at round 16 and Longoria at round 8.